Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research (2003) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Pages 1-8
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Yet, this type of intensive, committed effort leas not been carried out. In this, the latest National Academies' assessment of weather modification, the Committee was charged to provide an updated assessment of the ability of curt ent and proposed weather modification capabilities to provide beneficial impacts on water resource management and weather hazard mitigation It alas asked to examine new technologies, such as ground-based, in situ' and satellite detection systems, and fast reacting seeding materials and dispensing methods.
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These inadvertent impacts on weather arid climate require a concerted research effort, yet the scientific community has largely failed to take advantage of the fact that many of the scientific underpinnings of intentional and unintentional weather modification are the same. Current Operational and Research Efforts Operational weather modification programs, which primarily involve cloudseeding activities dinted at enhancing precipitation or mitigating hail fall, exist in more than 24 countries and there were at least 66 operational programs being conducted in l 0 states across the United States in 2001.
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This and other recent work has highlighted critical questions about the microphysical processes leading to precipitation, the transport and dispersion of seeding material in the cloud volume, the effects of seeding on the dynamical growth of clouds, and the logistics oftranslating storm-scale effects into an area-wide precipitation effect. By isolating these cat itical questions, which curl entry hamper pi ogress in weather modification, fetus e research efforts call be focused and optimized Additional advances in observational, computational, and statistical technologies have been made over the past two to three decades that could be applied to weather modification.
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Despite this lack of scientific pi cot, operational weather modification programs to increase ~ ain and snowfall and to suppress hail formation continue worldwide based on cost versus probabilistic benefit analyses. RECOMMENDATIONS Recommendation: Because weather modification could potentially contribute to alleviating water resource stresses and severe weather hazards, because weather modification is being attempted regardless of scientific proof supporting or refuting its efficacy, because inadvertent atmospheric changes are a reality, and because an entire suite of new tools and techniques now exist that could be applied to this issue, the Committee recommends that there be a renewed commitment to advancing our knowledge of fundamental atmospheric processes that are central to the issues of intentional and inadvertent weather modification.
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. Evaluation of predictive models for severe weather events and establishment of current predictive capabilities including probabilistic forecasts Advancement of the capabilities in cloud models to simulate dispersion tt ajectories of seeding material · Use of cloud models to examine effects of cloud seeding outside of seeded areas .
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simulations Modeling arid prediction of treated and untreated conditions for Mechanisms of transferring the sto~n-scale effect into an area-wide precipitation effect and tracking possible downwind changes at the single cells cloud cluster, and floating target scales The tasks involved in weather modification research T;~11 within the mission responsibilities of several government departments and agencies, and careful coordination of these tasks will be required. Recommendation: The Committee recommends that this coordinated research program include: · Capitalizing on new remote and in situ observational tools to carry out exploratory and confirmatory experiments in a variety of cloud and storm systems (e.g., Doppler lidars and airborne radars, microwave radiometers, millimeter-wave and polarimetrie cloud radars, global positioning system (GPS)
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Such issues involve society as a whole, and scientific weather modification research should be accompanied by parallel social, political, economic, environmental, and legal studies The Committee emphasizes that weather modification should be viewed as a fundamental and legitimate element of atmospheric and environmental science Owing to the growing demand for fresh water, the increasing levels of damage and loss of life resulting from severe weather, the undertaking of operational activities without the
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8 CRITIC,4 L [.SSZJELS IN [VE4 TILLER AJODIFICA TION RESEARCl-I guidance of a careful scientific foundation, and the reality of inadvertent atmospheric changes, the scientific community now has the opportunity, challenge, and responsibility to assess the potential efficacy and value of intentional weather modification technologies.
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