Critical Issues in Weather Modification Research (2003) / Chapter Skim
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5 Conclusions and Recommendations
5 Conclusions and Recommendations
Pages 67-74
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From page 67... ...
there has teen significant advancement in observational and computational capabilities, providing new opportunities to address many of the outstanding questions underlying attempts to modify weather. It is the principal conclusion of this Committee that the field of atmospheric science is now in a position to mount a concerted and sustained effort to delineate the scope and expectations of future weather modification research.
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From page 68... ...
that: `~Based upon a rigorous examination of the accumulated results of the numerous experimental tests of the static-mode and dynan~icmode seeding concepts conducted over the past four decades, it has been found that they have not yet provided either the statistical or physical evidence required to establish their scientific validity." This statement was made specifically in reference to glaciogenic seeding of convective clouds. With the possible exception of winter orographic clouds, it applies to virtually all efforts aimed at precipitation er~haneeme~t or hail suppression.
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From page 69... ...
suppressions activity may serve to motivate the operational programs, belt they do not constitute scientific proof that hail fall can be r educed Almost no world has been conducted aimed at tornado mitigation. All work on modifying hurricanes, including numerical model simulations' ceased in 1980 Past hurricane modification studies contributed substantially to the knowledge of the structure arid inner workings of hurricanes, which led to improvements in forecasting hurricane motion and intensity.
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From page 70... ...
Methodological uncertainties are related to the effectiveness of particular seeding materials' the dispersion of seeding materials in clouds, interactions between clouds and cells within the same cloud system, effects outside of seeded areas' separation of the seeding effects from natural effects, and the use of surrogate measurements such as radar reflectivity factors to observe cloud and precipitation changes. The uncertainties of greatest interest to users of weather modification technologies relate to evaluation of the seeding effects, Densely, the determination of whether any significant effect on such things as rainfall or hail fall actually occurred.
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From page 71... ...
Therefore, fiom a scientific perspective these technologies do not appear ready for immediate application in water resource management or hazard mitigation strategies. Nevertheless, there aloe many advances in observing, computing, modeling, and statistics, all of which offer a means to establish hypotheses and evaluation criteria and to address many of the uncertainties that limit our confidence in weather modification approaches for operational use.
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From page 72... ...
RECOMMENDATIONS Recommendation: Because weather modification could potentially contribute to alleviating water resource stresses and severe weather hazards, because weather modification is being attempted r egarclless of scientific proof supporting or refuting its efficacy, because inadvertent atmospheric changes are a reality, and because an entire suite of resew tools and techniques now exist that could be applied to this issue, the Committee recommends that there be a renewed commitment to advancing our knowledge of fundamental atmospheric processes that are central to the issues of intentional and inadvertent weather modification. The lessons learned from such research are likely to have implications well beyond issues of weather modification.
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From page 73... ...
A randomized program that includes strong modeling and observational components, employing advanced computational and observational tools, could substantially enhance our understanding of seeding effects and winter orographic precipitations. ~ Steadies c)
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From page 74... ...
Owing to the growing demand Or fresh water, the increasing levels of damage and loss of life resulting from severe weather, the undertaking of operational activities without the guidance of a careful scientific foundation, and the reality of inadvertent atmospheric changes. the scientific community now has the opportunity, challenge' and responsibility to assess the potential efficacy and value of intentional weather modification technologies
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