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6. The Timing and Levels of Joint and Service-Specific Advertising
Pages 112-126

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From page 112...
... Certain types of advert/sing themes' such as generic themes designed to increase overaU propensHy' may be best done as a joint program' Shoe advert/sing themes Maturing specific benefits of m1~1Col~erg and ~~ko (2003) studied aggregate enbstments into the four Sedges over the and esh~ate larger business cycle gag., unemployment)
From page 113...
... Is there some minimum level of advertising that is above the level of advertising that minimizes the total cost of achieving current recruiting goals, but may be optimal in a longer term perspective? For example, consider a case in which, because of a poor economy and high unemployment rates, or a significant reduction in the current demand for new recruits, or both, current recruiting goals can be achieved even if recruiting resources, including advertising, are drastically reduced.
From page 114...
... However, if there is reason to believe that external economic conditions are likely to improve significantly, or that the demand for new recruits is to increase, it may be imprudent to permit the stock of awareness capital decline to this level. This would be of greater concern if the marginal cost of increasing awareness capital in a particular period was
From page 115...
... / DA, O C(A) / DA , O If the marginal cost of increasing the stock of awareness capital increases with the magnitude of the desired increase in capital, then it may be less costly to begin increasing the stock of information capital in periods earlier than is needed for current recruiting.
From page 116...
... To determine if there is a minimal level of advertising expenditure that is above that necessary to meet current goals, an econometric model must be able to capture the effects of advertising over time and allow for nonlinear effects of advertising on recruiting in a given time period.2 2Earlier we presented the notion that advertising contributed to a stock of information or awareness capital, and that this stock then affected recruiting. This is a useful concept for exposition purposes.
From page 117...
... If the data on which these findings are based are strong and compelling, it would mean that a compelling case could not be made for maintaining advertising expenditures in a given period, if they are not needed to achieve current goals, solely because it is desirable to increase recruit supply six months or a year in the future. However, there is not a large body of evidence on the issue, and most authors who do provide some evidence also note that the data from which the estimates are derived are weak, and that more research is necessary.
From page 118...
... Instead, we propose a focused effort to maintain data, especially advertising data, in a systematic and careful way, for the purposes of estimating a supply curve that incorporates the potential both for dynamic and nonlinear advertising effects. This is consistent with our recommendation in Chapter 5 for better and more thorough data collection and estimation using more flexible functional forms.
From page 119...
... provide evidence that military advertising affects propensity to enlist. In an analysis of the Youth Attitude Tracking Study propensity over the 1988-2000 time period, they found a youths propensity to enlist to be positively related to total military advertising expenditures per youth in the youths state of residence in the 12 months prior to the survey.
From page 120...
... 1989, the last large recruiting year before the drawdown, the Services spent $100 million on enlisted advertising compared with a joint level of $20 million. In that year, almost the entire joint budget was for TV advertising.
From page 121...
... do not help answer the above questions. Their updated analysis of the Ad Mix Test data does not distinguish joint advertising from Army advertising, their analysis of the 1993-1997 recruiting experience is conducted at the DoD level, and the joint program is added to Service-specific advertising to derive measures of total DoD advertising.
From page 122...
... The other question is whether a move toward valuesoriented advertising is more efficiently accomplished in a joint program or whether redirected Service programs would have the same impact at the same cost. An advantage of loading all advertising into Service advertising was alluded to above: namely, that advertising unit costs are lower in programs of larger scale.
From page 123...
... An advertising campaign aimed at adult influencers would be consistent with the DSB recommendation to engage the American public about the value of public service.9 It is an empirical question whether such advertising, if done properly, would have more impact on youth propensity and the ultimate goal, enlistment than advertising directed at the youth themselves. Advertising aimed at adult influencers is likely to be more effectively accomplished in the context of a generic (joint)
From page 124...
... Studies find a strong link between propensity to enlist, as measured from surveys such as the Youth Attitude Tracking Study, and actual enlistment (e.g., Warner et al., 2002~. Given the youth propensity to enlist, the lower the military's demand for recruits, the greater the fraction of enlistments that will come from youth who are already positively inclined to enlist without military advertising to attract them.
From page 125...
... CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS We have addressed the question of whether there is a minimum level of advertising necessary for a cost-effective recruiting program, even if that advertising is not necessary to achieve current enlistment contract goals. Historically, when the recruiting climate is good and recruits are plentiful, military planners tend to cut advertising budgets, thereby contributing to a reduction in awareness capital and propensity levels.
From page 126...
... The larger the recruiting effort and the larger the budget, the greater the potential value of a multifaceted campaign, with some resources targeted toward providing information about specific Services to those already with a propensity to enlist and others targeted toward increasing propensity among those currently without it. We recommend a program of research aimed at examining the effects and cost-effectiveness of information-oriented versus values-oriented advertising in joint and Service advertising programs.


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