Skip to main content

Currently Skimming:

3. Monitoring Trends in Youth Attitudes, Values, and Propensity
Pages 40-67

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 40...
... In this chapter we propose a cohort-based sequential sample survey with a longitudinal component that we think will provide the information necessary for both tracking the determinants of propensity and for developing more effective communications to increase and maintain the pool of youth with the propensity to join the military. This survey design has several advantages over current and recent survey designs that have been used by the Department of Defense (DoD)
From page 41...
... With structured modeling, the Services can determine which of the underlying determinants of propensity are driving current levels of propensity, and how they may have differed in the past. This will affect the development of advertising messages and the levels and types of incentives used to attract youth into military service.
From page 42...
... 295~. More specifically, we recommended that "a portfolio of surveys at different time intervals replace the current annual YATS administration" (p.
From page 43...
... to join a military service" or to "get a job" or to "attend a four-year college." It is interesting to note, however, that there are no questions assessing the determinants of these intentions to encourage youth to choose any of these career paths. In sum, the current set of surveys does not yet provide the data necessary for identifying the critical determinants of propensity, and thus they do not provide the data necessary for developing effective interventions (including mass media advertising)
From page 44...
... Even when the major goal of conducting a survey is to provide information to increase propensity to join the military, there are a number of issues that must be addressed prior to developing one or more survey instruments.
From page 45...
... What is recommended here need not be viewed as a proposed replacement for the current pattern of telephone surveys, except insofar as cost constraints dictate some degree of trade-off. That said, it should be acknowledged that if the series of monitoring surveys recommended here were to be carried out, the overlap in coverage is such that it would eventually be possible to phase out much of the telephone survey work now being done.
From page 46...
... If there is an interest in propensity or related factors at lower ages, they could be the subject of limited special studies rather than monitoring surveys. By age 16-17 young men and women have had to confront questions about their next steps after high school (college, military service, civilian employment)
From page 47...
... The committee thinks that topics related to career choice are of great interest and importance to most of those in the target survey population and that, with sufficient care, self-administered questionnaires can be developed that will maintain respondent motivation.
From page 48...
... Moreover, in most schools there is likely to be a range of parent and student reactions to a "military survey." Pentagon sponsorship should, of course, be acknowledged; but if the survey were a joint undertaking sponsored by the DoD and others, and if the content reflected that joint sponsorship, the survey might be more attractive to all concerned. Moreover, in order to do a good job, as well as to be broadly acceptable to school personnel, parents, and students, the military portion of the questionnaire content should be balanced in its items about military service, military working conditions, duty to country, and the like.
From page 49...
... Proposed Features of a Monitoring Survey Series The committee considered a number of survey designs and options in its deliberations. None of the options was ruled out; to the contrary, it was considered important that multiple methods be employed at various points.
From page 50...
... One strategy involves sampling only 11th grade students and then tracking them with follow-up surveys, perhaps as often as once a year. The other strategy involves sampling both 11th and 12th grade students, with follow-up surveys every two years.
From page 51...
... . Some panel attrition occurs;2 however, taking account of the initial base-year information obtained from all respondents often permits satisfactory statistical adjustments.3 Scheduling of Surveys Throughout the Year The committee sees advantages in spreading surveys throughout the year in order to monitor more sensitively those military-related events that occur at unpredictable times during the year.
From page 52...
... It is also important to keep in mind that once a school is recruited and administration arrangements made, the marginal costs of additional students included in the sample are very low; consequently, it is not at all costly to have a fairly large number of respondents in school-based groupadministered surveys. The primary factor influencing costs is the number of schools; that is also a key factor in determining how accurately the survey represents the target population.
From page 53...
... for participation, as well as clear specification that participation is voluntary, would go a long way toward securing school agreement for such an additional option, as well as ensuring high levels of counselor participation. Sampling Strategies for Follow-up Monitoring Surveys The surveys of students should include respondents' names and mailing addresses (on separate computer-matched numbered pages)
From page 54...
... In contrast, individuals who expect to enter college should be undersampled, primarily because they represent such a large proportion of 11th grade students that it is unnecessary for analysis purposes to have them constitute an equally large proportion of the follow-up target sample. These and other adjustments in likelihood of inclusion in the follow-up target samples can be corrected through appropriate weights in analyses.
From page 55...
... The second design, Plan B involves annual surveys of both 11th and 12th grade students with subsets from each grade selected for three follow-ups on a two-year cycle.
From page 56...
... Recruiting schools to participate in school-based surveys involves considerable effort and costs. If schools were willing to have both 11th and 12th grade students surveyed, the 12th grade survey (i.e., using Plan B rather than Plan A)
From page 57...
... Follow-up participation rates. We noted above that substantial portions of target samples are lost in mail follow-up surveys.
From page 58...
... Perhaps the broadest observation to be made is that we cannot with confidence estimate which plan would cost more than the other. Clearly, as noted earlier, if 11th and 12th grade students were surveyed in the same schools at the same times, there would be considerable cost savings quite possibly the Plan B school surveys would cost only half again what the Plan A surveys cost (i.e., the 12th grade survey might be added at half price)
From page 59...
... SURVEY CONTENT If a major purpose of the survey is to identify the determinants of propensity or to track changes in propensity and its determinants over time, then, at a minimum, it will be necessary to assess propensity, attitudes, perceived norms, self-efficacy, and the behavioral, normative, and control beliefs underlying attitudes, norms, and self-efficacy. These clearly should comprise the core questions in any survey design.
From page 60...
... strongly agree agree neither agree nor disagree disagree strongly disagree Perceived Descriptive Norm: The perceived descriptive norm is one's perception of what important others are actually doing vis-a-vis the behavior in question. Thus it would be important to ask questions such as: How many people like you will join the military (Army/Navy/Air Force/Marine Corps)
From page 61...
... certain I cannot : : : : certain I can Underlying Behavioral, Normative, and Control Beliefs Generally speaking, there are also standardized items that can be used for assessing behavioral, normative, and control beliefs. For example, behavioral beliefs are usually measured with items using the following format.
From page 62...
... extremely unlikely : : : : extremely likely Descriptive normative beliefs are usually measured with items like: (Referent A) performed or is currently performing (Behavior X)
From page 63...
... This information can then be used to develop fixed-item survey questions to assess underlying behavioral, normative, and control or self-efficacy beliefs. This type of formative research is also critical as a first step in developing advertising strategy.
From page 64...
... Distal Variables Distal variables may be related to propensity, but theoretically they are assumed to exert their influence indirectly by influencing underlying behavioral, normative, and control beliefs. For example, gender differences in propensity should be explained by finding that men and women hold different behavioral, normative, or control beliefs about joining the military.
From page 65...
... We have recommended the use of a cohort-based sequential sample survey with a longitudinal component that in our view will provide the information necessary for both tracking propensity and its determinants and for developing more effective communications to increase and maintain the pool of youth with the propensity to join the military. Moreover, by following the cohort on a regular basis, it will be possible, at least in part, to evaluate the effects of current events, as well as changes in advertising and recruitment policies.
From page 66...
... Thus respondents' could also be asked such things as: 6As indicated above, because of changing technology, it is possible that follow-ups of the cohort sample could eventually be done using the Internet. If this were the case, tracking could also be accomplished as part of a cohort-based sequential sample survey design.
From page 67...
... While such an annual or semiannual survey should address most of the key questions concerning propensity and recruitment, assessments of whether one has been exposed to a current advertising campaign, whether one has talked to others about that campaign, or whether one has talked to a recruiter will clearly vary as a function of advertising expenditure and military policies concerning incentives as well as the number and placement of recruiters. Thus, we recommend a brief, continuous tracking survey to assess exposure to specific events, advertisements (or other recruitment policy changes)


This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More information on Chapter Skim is available.