The 2000 Census Counting Under Adversity (2004) / Chapter Skim
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5 Coverage Evaluation: Methods and Background
5 Coverage Evaluation: Methods and Background
Pages 157-184
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From page 157... ...
iThese rates are for the household and noninstitutionalized group quarters population, which was the universe included in the 1990 PES; they are from an August 1992 revision of the original PES estimates (Hogan, 2001a:Table 2a; see also Hogan, 1993:1054~.
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From page 158... ...
to adjust intercensal population estimates. In 2000 the Census Bureau plannecl to use A.C.E.-basecl population estimates to adjust the census counts, but on three separate occasions March 2001, Octo
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From page 159... ...
In the census context, the initial survey is caller! the E-sample, which consists of the census enumerations in the A.C.E.
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From page 160... ...
· P/M is the inverse of the weighted match rate from the Psample. 3II is a Census Bureau term that originally stood for "insufficient information for matching." Its meaning has evolved, and it now covers late additions to the census and whole-person imputations.
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From page 161... ...
is CCF DSE 161 where C is the census count, including people requiring imputation ant! late aciclitions to the count (IIs)
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to adjust the census for net unclercount for geographic areas that are smaller than those user! in the posts/ratification, the process would involve applying the coverage correction factors to the population counter!
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From page 163... ...
other rates involves! in the clual-systems computation for a poststratum apply at all Tower geographic levels or, alternatively, that the true coverage correction factor for a poststratum applies at all Tower geographic levels.
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From page 164... ...
demographic analysis (DA) methods to clevelop population estimates for every census year since 1880.
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From page 165... ...
The problem of illegal immigrants first became evident when the initial demographic analysis total population estimate for April 1980 was Tower than the population enumeratec! in the census (226.0 ant!
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From page 166... ...
The P-sample cases from the independent list and the E-sample cases of census enumerations in the PES block clusters totaTecl about 165,000 househoIcls each (slightly larger than the originally planned size of 150,000 househoicls)
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From page 167... ...
In spring 1991, Bureau statisticians used the PES data to develop DSE-based population estimates for the 1990 census. The P-sample and E-sample cases were categorized into 1,392 prespecified poststrata for which coverage correction factors were calcu
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The final step was to apply the smoother! coverage correction factors for incliviclual poststrata to the census counts, block by block, to develop acljustec!
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From page 169... ...
postcensal population estimates that are clevelopecl by using birth, cleath, ant! immigration records to update the census counts (see Chapter 24.
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From page 170... ...
The U.S. Supreme Court precluclecl the use of sample-basecl estimation for the reapportionment counts, so the Census Bureau planned the 2000 Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Program with a 300,000-househoIc!
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, ant! Census Bureau staff expecter!
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From page 172... ...
out where the current residents usually lived as of Census Day (PES-B)
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From page 173... ...
PES-C is similar to PES-A except that PES-C applies the match rate for outmovers to the number of inmovers, instead of using both the match rate and number of outmovers in the DSE estimation (see Liu et al., 2001:1~. Targeted Extended Search Procedure Another important change from the 1990 PES concerned the targetecl extended search procedure for searching surrounding blocks if a search in the sampled block cluster did not turn up a match for a
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From page 174... ...
authority for the decision on adjustment of the 2000 census to the director of the Census Bureau (65 Federal Register 195, 59713597164. In the first clays of the Bush administration, commerce secretary DonaTcl Evans rescinded the earlier regulation, returning the authority to the secretary (66 Federal Register 37, 11231-112334.
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From page 175... ...
For example, Census Bureau director Kenneth Prewitt wrote: "The Census Bureau has cleterminec! that the A.C.E.
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In abolition, the Census Bureau planner! to take account of population estimates from demographic analysis, which historically hac!
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From page 177... ...
a The base demographic analysis estimate was made available in January 2001; it assumes about 6.0 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States under age 65 in April 2000 3.3 million from the 1990 DA estimate plus a net increase during the 1990s of 2.7 million. b The alternate demographic analysis estimate was made available in March 2001; it assumes a net increase in illegal immigration during the 1990s of 5.4 million for a total of 8.7 million undocumented immigrants as of April 2000.
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Census Bureau staff also expresser! concern about the relatively low numbers of certain types of erroneous enumerations measurer!
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that demographic analysis estimates were sufficiently uncertain that they shouIc! not be user!
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Therefore the Census Bureau recommenclec! against adjustment of the 2000 complete-count ant!
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Revised Demographic Analysis Estimates The reviser! demographic analysis estimate of the total net unclercount in 2000 (see Table 5.3)
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From page 182... ...
estimates of percentage net undercount and subtracts adjustments estimated by Fay (2001:Table 9) for additional unmeasured erroneous enumerations, including an assumption that computer matching was 75.7 percent efficient in identifying duplicates.
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From page 183... ...
2001) Total Population -0.65 0.32 0.12 1.85 1.65 Black 2.80 3.51 2.78 5.68 5.52 All Other -1.19 -0.17 -0.29 1.29 1.08 NOTES: Net undercount rates are calculated as the estimate from demographic analysis minus the census count divided by the estimate.
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From page 184... ...
However, its revised estimates of the immigration component are not independent of the census, and the estimates for births and immigration incorporate assumptions that are based primarily on expert judgment. Such judgments may be reasonable, but they retain sufficient uncertainty so that it is not appropriate to conclude that the revised demographic analysis estimates are more accurate than the census.
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