The Hydrogen Economy Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs (2004) / Chapter Skim
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6. Implications of a Transitionto Hydrogen in Vehicles for the U.S. Energy System
6. Implications of a Transitionto Hydrogen in Vehicles for the U.S. Energy System
Pages 64-83
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From page 64... ...
and gasoline hybrid electric vehicles (GHEVs) -- the committee has as In developing the analyses, the committee made quantitasumed that vehicles having equivalent performance will have equal cost.
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From page 65... ...
During this impacts on energy security associated with changes in the period, the market share of conventional vehicles declines by 6 percentage points annually. As hydrogen vehicles con tinue to grow in popularity, with their market share increas ing, the market share of GHEVs peaks in 2024 at 60 percent 2Criteria pollutants are air pollutants emitted from numerous or diverse and then begins declining by 2 percentage points annually.
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From page 66... ...
The first shows an estimate of gasoline connew hydrogen vehicles are estimated to have 2.4 times the sumption in the absence of either hybrid electric vehicles or fuel economy of conventional vehicles (or a 66 percent hydrogen vehicles. It shows that gasoline consumption higher fuel economy than that of GHEVs)
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From page 67... ...
90 New conventional 80 New hybrid vehicles New hydrogen vehicles All conventional 70 All hybrid All hydrogen vehicles 60 mpkg) or 50 (mpg y 40 econom 30 Fuel 20 10 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 6-2 Postulated fuel economy based on the optimistic vision of the committee for conventional, hybrid, and hydrogen vehicles (passenger cars and light-duty trucks)
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From page 68... ...
68 THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY: OPPORTUNITIES, COSTS, BARRIERS, AND R&D NEEDS 120 100 100 80 eary 80 per eary 60 per amsr 60 tons of kilog of 40 Millions 40 Billions 20 20 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 6-3 Light-duty vehicular use of hydrogen, 20002050, based on the optimistic vision of the committee. 31 14 29 13 27 25 12 23 11 y 21 10 da eary 19 9 per oil per 17 8 of Btu 15 7 illion 13 barrels 6 All conventional of 11 Quadr With hybrid vehicles 5 9 Hydrogen and hybrid vehicles Millions 4 7 3 5 2 3 1 1 -1 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 6-4 Gasoline use by light-duty vehicles with or without hybrid and hydrogen vehicles, 20002050, based on the optimistic vision of the committee.
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From page 69... ...
emitting more than 2200 million metric tons of carbon, over 60 55 All conventional With hybrid vehicles 50 Hydrogen and hybrid vehicles 45 EIA forecast: Petroleum EIA forecast: Net petroleum imports 40 EIA forecast: Crude production plus natural gas plant eary 35 per Btu 30 illion 25 Quadr20 15 10 5 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 6-5 Gasoline use cases based on the committee's optimistic vision compared with Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections of oil supply, demand, and imports, 20002050.
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From page 70... ...
The commitinto the atmosphere. These estimates appear in Figures 6-7 tee shows this particular technology for the possible future and 6-9 for current hydrogen production technologies and in state of technology development and shows wind turbines Figures 6-8 and 6-10 for possible future technologies.
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From page 71... ...
800 700 600 (millions) 500 ually ann 400 carbon of Without hydrogen or hybrids 300 Hybrids, no hydrogen tons CS NG-F ic CS NG-F Seq 200 CS Coal-F Metr CS Coal-F Seq CS Nu-F Dist NG-F 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 6-8 Estimated volume of carbon releases from passenger cars and light-duty trucks: possible future hydrogen production technologies (fossil fuels and nuclear energy)
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From page 72... ...
800 700 600 500 (millions) 400 ually 300 ann 200 Without hydrogen or hybrids carbon Hybrids, no hydrogen 100 of MS Bio-F tons 0 MS Bio-F Seq ic Dist Elec-F -100 Dist WT Ele-F Metr Dist PV-Gr Ele-F -200 -300 -400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 6-10 Estimated volume of carbon releases from passenger cars and light-duty trucks; possible future hydrogen production technologies (electrolysis and renewables)
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From page 73... ...
Figure 6-4 shows that a transition to hydrogen in light- tions associated with the penetration of hydrogen vehicles in duty vehicles could sharply reduce the use of gasoline and place of hybrid electric vehicles, and the natural gas use inthus could reduce the importation of oil. Some of the tech- creases for the central station natural-gas-based technolonologies would use domestic resources without increasing gies, with and without sequestration, and the distributed rethe importation of other energy from potentially unstable forming of natural gas.
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From page 74... ...
24 22 CS NG-C 20 use CS NG-C Seq NG Dist NG-C 18 or Gasoline reductions 16 14 reductions 12 gasoline 10 of 8 Btu illion 6 4 Quadr 2 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 6-12 Estimated gasoline use reductions compared with natural gas (NG) use increases: current hydrogen production technologies, 20102050.
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From page 75... ...
consumption and producTHE COMMITTEE'S VISION tion of coal.9 Figure 6-14 shows that, by 2050, hydrogen production In addition to impacts on natural gas, the committee has could use between 13 quadrillion and 15 quadrillion Btu per estimated impacts on several other domestic resources. year of coal, with slightly smaller quantities for possible fuCoal-based hydrogen generation would require increased ture technologies and slightly larger quantities for technoloU.S.
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From page 76... ...
Howif biomass were the feedstock for 100 percent of the hydro- ever, if the biomass requires land that currently serves as gen production. Figure 6-15 provides those estimates for cropland, then by 2050 under possible future technology both the current and possible future technologies, both with conditions, biomass production could use about 33 percent and without CO2 sequestration.
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From page 77... ...
MS Bio-C Seq 2.0 ually 1.8 ann 1.6 xide 1.4 dio 1.2 carbon 1.0 of 0.8 tons ic 0.6 Metr 0.4 0.2 0.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 6-16 Estimated annual amounts of carbon dioxide sequestered from supply chain for automobiles powered by hydrogen: current hydrogen production technologies, 20102050. See Table 5-2 in Chapter 5 and discussion in text.
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From page 78... ...
2.0 ually 1.8 ann 1.6 xide 1.4 dio 1.2 carbon 1.0 of 0.8 tons ic 0.6 Metr 0.4 0.2 0.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 6-18 Estimated annual amounts of carbon dioxide sequestered from supply chain for automobiles powered by hydrogen: possible future hydrogen production technologies, 20102050. See Table 5-2 in Chapter 5 and discussion in text.
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From page 79... ...
In each of Figures 6-20 Thus, sequestration of CO2 from coal-based or biomass- through 6-23, there is a curve displaying an estimation of based hydrogen production in 2050 (see Figures 6-16 and 6 the annual fuel cost with only conventional vehicles, with no 18) would require the movement of a mass of CO2 twice the amount that the EIA projects to be the mass of natural gas moved in 2025.
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From page 80... ...
Hydrogen based on dis- supplied electricity or partially on photovoltaic-supplied 400 350 No hydrogen or GHEVs GHEVs, no hydrogen CS NG-C 300 CS NG-C Seq CS Coal-C dollars) CS Coal-C Seq of 250 Dist NG-C billions 200 (in costs 150 ual Ann 100 50 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 6-20 Estimated total annual fuel costs for automobiles: current hydrogen production technologies (fossil fuels)
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From page 81... ...
, 20002050. Each line for the various hydrogen production technologies assumes that hydrogen-fueled vehicles capture the market shares over time (at the rates shown in Figure 6-1)
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From page 82... ...
Dist Elec-F of 500 Dist WT Ele-F Dist PV-Gr Ele-F billions 400 (in costs 300 ual Ann 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE 6-23 Estimated total annual fuel costs for light-duty vehicles: possible future hydrogen production technologies (electrolysis and renewables)
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From page 83... ...
States. Most current hydrogen production technologies However, if natural gas is used to produce hydrogen, and if, would lead to a total driving cost higher than the total cost if on the margin, natural gas is imported, there would be little hybrid electric vehicles ultimately dominated the fleet, but if any reduction in total energy imports, because natural gas central station coal-based or natural-gas-based hydrogen profor hydrogen would displace petroleum for gasoline.
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