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Forensic Analysis Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence (2004) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix I: The Birthday Problem Analogy
Pages 163-164

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From page 163...
... , but one specific crime scene bullet and one or more of n other potential suspect bullets where n could be as small as 1 or 2 or as large as 40 or 50 (which is similar to determining the probability that a specific person shares a birthday with another person in the group)
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From page 164...
... · Third, if bullets manufactured at the same time tend to appear in the same box, and such boxes tend to be distributed in geographically nondispersed locations, the n potential suspect bullets are not independent, as the n persons' birthdays in the birthday problem are assumed to be. We conclude that this analogy with the birthday problem does not apply.
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Key Terms

  • suspect bullets
  • match probability
  • potential suspect
  • false match
  • nondispersed locations

  • bullets manufactured
  • person shares
  • analytically indistinguishable
  • indistinguishable composition
  • compositional analysis

  • specific crime
  • scene bullet
  • specific person
  • crime scene
  • cabl attempts

  • boxes tend
  • time tend
  • geographically nondispersed
  • bullet matching
  • complementary event

  • stochastic processes
  • elementary probability
  • probability theory


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