Reengineering the 2010 Census Risks and Challenges (2004) / Chapter Skim
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2 The General Plan for the 2010 Census
2 The General Plan for the 2010 Census
Pages 23-54
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From page 23... ...
As context for discussion of the developing plans for the 2010 census, we review the basic steps involved in performing a decennial census in Section 2-A. We then briefly review the major milestones and problems of the 2000 census and its planning process (Section 2-B)
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From page 24... ...
In addition to the human organizational structure, census planners must also piece together the broader technical infrastructure of the census the amalgam of people, computer hardware and software systems, and telecommunication networks that will be used to support all aspects of the census process. Of the initial preparations that must be made for a census, the development of an address list (2)
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From page 25... ...
The address list, combined with other geographic resources, is also essential to the accurate tabulation of census results. In 2000, the Census Bureau's address list the Master Address File (MAE)
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Of these directorates, two are particularly key to decennial census operations: · Decennial Census: The associate director for decennial census oversees all decisions for census planning, budget, and operations, and all funding for decennial-census-related activities is coordinated under this directorate. Under this directorate, the Decennial Management Division is responsible for planning and coordination as well as liaison with oversight groups such as the U.S.
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From page 27... ...
The eighth directorate in the Census Bureau hierarchy is Economic Programs; while it is not involved in decennial census operations, it administers the Census Bureau's extensive portfolio of business and economic surveys, including the stand-alone Economic Census. SOURCES: Thompson (2000~; Census Bureau organizational chart available at http://www.census.gov/main/www/m- img/orgchart.
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From page 28... ...
Coverage evaluation programs are intended to use independent measures to estimate the accuracy of the census count, both in the aggregate and for specific demographic groups. Coverage evaluation plans in 1990 and 2000 centered around an independent postenumeration survey, though demographic analysis estimates (essentially, updating population counts by adding births and immigrants and subtracting deaths and emigrants)
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From page 29... ...
For coverage evaluation using a postenumeration survey (as in 2000) , the basic goal is to conduct a survey that is completely independent of the census operations and that obtains information about people who lived in particular households on Census Day, April 1.
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From page 30... ...
For the past several censuses, the Bureau has relied on "hot-deck" methods that fill in responses using a pool of possible responses, drawn roughly from questionnaires in nearby households. Finally, the data are unduplicated to the extent possible, in terms of both persons and housing units.
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From page 31... ...
For the 2000 census, the Bureau developed a program of 91 formal evaluation studies related to census operations (reduced from an initial total of 1491. These operational evaluations were complemented in the 2000 census cycle by three separate waves of research studies connected to the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation program, each of which informed a decision on the use of adjusted census figures (see Section 2-B)
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From page 32... ...
To a great extent, 2000 census planning was dominated by ongoing debate over the role of sample-based methods in the census. The Census Bureau's initial plans in the mid-1990s relied heavily on sampling in two respects: first, the Bureau would focus nonresponse follow-up efforts on a sample of households that did not return their census forms and, second, the results of a major postenumeration survey would be used to adjust census totals to reflect estimated undercount.
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3164. The Court's ruling stopped short of declaring sampling unconstitutional in the census process, and it left open the possibility of adjustment of census data for other purposes (including legislative redistricting)
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The Census Bureau also, for the first time, relied heavily on outside contractors for assistance in parts of the census process, notably data capture (scanning paper questionnaires to recover data in electronic format)
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As another portent of things to come, various groups charged with overseeing the census process expressed concern about what would be described by others as a success of the 2000 census: nonresponse follow-up operations were concluded ahead of schedule. Oversight groups worried that local census offices might be closing out their workload too early, not making the fullest effort to follow up with all nonrespondents.
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From page 36... ...
. The Census Bureau ESCAP recommendation cited difficulties reconciling ACE results with population estimates produced through demographic analysis, as well as concern over possible errors in the ACE process (Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E.
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It was also successful in curbing the trend of past censuses toward lower overall mail return rates, among other accomplishments. That said, the process by which the 2000 census plan developed leaves considerable room for improvement.
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From page 38... ...
In particular, the Census Bureau's emerging 2010 census plans take advantage of a short-form-only census by including the following additional components: · Multiple response modes. Simplifying to a short form would make completion of the census form easier and quicker and more tractable for administering to respondents electronically.
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From page 39... ...
2-C.1 Relation of the 2010 Plan to Basic Census Processes In the context of the basic census steps described in Section 2-A, the major focus of activity in the planning of the 2000 census was in step (6) , designing a plan for coverage evaluation, and the effects of that general design on other parts of the census process.
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From page 40... ...
So, too, will information collected in nonresponse follow-up by enumerators using PCDs with the added challenge that data from PCDs may be transmitted directly from thousands of enumerators to census headquarters without filtering through data capture centers. As we will discuss in other parts of this report, the emerging 2010 census plan also includes steps that could affect other basic steps in the census process.
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From page 41... ...
The list of major problems and concerns arising from the 2000 census includes flaws in the Master Address File, duplication of both persons and housing units, a widening gap between short-form and long-form response rates, and problematic handling of special places and group quarters. The tripartite core of the 2010 census plan reflects some of these concerns (particularly the issue of nonresponse to the long form)
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From page 42... ...
Finally, a full-fledged dress rehearsal is to be conducted in 2008. The Census Bureau hopes that avoiding a late-decade crush in designing census plans will make the 2008 exercise a true rehearsal rather than a late experimental test, as was the case with the 2000 census dress rehearsal.
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From page 43... ...
and rewording of race and Hispanic origin questions 2004 Conduct Census Field Test, emphasizing use of portable computing devices, in selected sites in New York, Illinois, and Georgia; conduct Overseas Enumeration Test in France, Kuwait, and Mexico 2005 Analyze results and refine methodology 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Conduct National Census Test, involving prototype technical systems; (possibly) conduct second overseas census test Analyze results and refine and integrate systems and methods Dress rehearsal Begin to implement operations Conduct census SOURCES: Waite (20024; U.S.
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From page 44... ...
strongly supports the major aims of the plan. The implementation of the ACS, for example, and with it the elimination of the long form from the decennial census process is a very good idea; the Bureau's geographic databases are in dire need of comprehensive update; and the implementation of new technologies in census-taking is crucial to maintaining an accurate count.
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From page 45... ...
The consequences of failing to develop a strong research base for the 2010 census are serious. They entail: · repeating past census processes that may be inefficient or suboptimal, · conducting a census with methods that are out of step with the dynamics of the population it is intended to count, · making limited technological innovations that may not match real needs, and · marking a flawed beginning for 2020.
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From page 46... ...
Furthermore, the Census Bureau's risk management plan does not identify risks associated with the major components of the general census design, such as the ACS and the MAF/TIGER modernization, and the plan's soft-pedaling of the risk associated with the lack of integration of these components is puzzling. As the Bureau's risk management plan notes, 2010 census reengineering faces two paramount risks: first, that the final design of the census (particularly the role of the ACS or a census long form)
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From page 47... ...
reduce the negative impact to the project if the risk becomes an issue" (Decennial Management Division, 2003:204. SOURCE: Decennial Management Division (20034.
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From page 48... ...
Failure to reach consensus on the role of the ACS in the census process raises the undesirable prospect of reversion to the long form, possibly late in the census process and therefore implemented in a rushed manner, which is likely to result in the same nonresponse and data quality problems as were experienced with the 2000 long form. More significantly, failure to reach closure on census design leaves open the possibility that the detailed socioeconomic and demographic characteristics measured by the current census long form may not be estimated at all in 2010, which would be an unacceptable outcome.
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From page 49... ...
during actual census operations due to lack of proper testing. Moreover, census hardware and software systems may not fit properly with each other at points of interface guaranteeing the stovepipe systems that the Bureau's draft risk management plan correctly suggests should be avoided.
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From page 50... ...
Alienation of local authorities is a risk, to be certain, but a more fundamental risk is failure to fully involve them in census design and operations. In addition to serving a critical role as contributors and reviewers of address list information, local and tribal governments can offer guidance in enumerating group quarters and other special populations, tailoring enumeration techniques (e.g., update/leave rather than mailout/mailback)
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From page 51... ...
· Research and development agenda for the American Community Survey: Though not an immediate threat to the integrity of the 2010 census, failure to implement a strong research and evaluation program for the ACS poses a longerterm risk to the quality and usefulness of the survey and will hinder the ability to fully exploit potential ties between 7Many challenges to census counts filed by localities under the Census Bureau's Count Question Resolution program involved geographic misplacement of such facilities as college dormitories and prisons. Most recently, the Census Bureau acknowledged that a 2,673-resident dormitory at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill had been double-counted a highly contentious finding since North Carolina narrowly edged out Utah (by 857 residents)
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From page 52... ...
Perhaps most significant is the risk that the Census Bureau may fail to fully understand the direction in which the technology is moving and thus may spend its resources testing devices that are inferior to those that will be available in 2010, in terms of both size and computing capacity. A consequence of this error is that wrong and misleading conclusions may be drawn about the real potential for portable computing devices to improve census data collection.
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From page 53... ...
· Focus on the Master Address File. Realignment of the TIGER database is undeniably important and long overdue, but it is the quality of the address list that is crucial to the quality of a census.
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From page 54... ...
In approaching PCDs, the Census Bureau should seek to exploit technology to guide new and better enumeration processes, rather than simply replicating old processes on new tools. · Make research and evaluation a centerpiece of census operations, not a peripheral component.
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