Urban Change and Poverty (1988) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
Jobs, Migration, and Emerging Urban Mismatches
Jobs, Migration, and Emerging Urban Mismatches
Pages 148-198
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 148... ...
Before World War IT the metropolitan areas of the Northeast and Midwest contained the majority of the nation's inclustrial locational advantages (excellent deep-water ports, extensive railroad and inland waterway systems, well-developed interand intrametropolitan highways, proximity to rich coal deposits, ubiquitous public utilities, a diverse and relatively better-educated 148
|
From page 149... ...
In fact, as late as 1950, more than 70 percent of all manufacturing jobs were in the Northeast and Midwest, mostly concentrated in and around the largest cities. Since World War IT a number of economic, political, and technological forces have combined to accelerate industrial restructuring and shift the nation's employment growth pole first to the West and then to the South.
|
From page 150... ...
These streams were especially large during the 1950s. During the 1970s the Current Population Survey indicates that more persons from the West began moving to the South than vice versa, while net flows from the Northeast and Midwest to the South rose dramatically.
|
From page 151... ...
Exchanges 1955-1960a 1965-1970b 1970-1975C 1975-1980d 1980-1985 South with Northeast 314 438 964 945 737 Midwest 122 275 790 813 1,100 West -380 -56 75 176 60 Total other regions 56 657 1,829 1,935 1,897 West with Northeast 285 224 311 518 234 Midwest 760 415 472 634 475 South 380 56 -75 -176 -60 Total other regions 1,425 695 708 976 649 Midwest with Northeast 40 53 67 146 50 South -122 -275 -790 -813 -1,100 West -760 -415 -472 -634 -475 Total other regions -842 -637 - 1,195 - 1,302 - 1,525 Northeast with Midwest -40 -53 -67 -146 -50 South -314 -438 -964 -945 -737 West -285 -224 -311 -518 -234 Total other regions -639 -715 - 1,342 -1,609 -1,022 NOTE: Some columns do not sum precisely because of rounding. bFrom Bureau of the Census (1963:Table 237~.
|
From page 152... ...
Table 2 also reveals the accelerating loss of non-Hispanic whites from the Midwest. Between 1980-1985, the Midwest experienced a negative net migration exchange of nearly 1.4 million non-Hispanic whites with other regions of the country, compared with a net loss of 1.2 million between 1975 and 1980.
|
From page 153... ...
153 U: oo 0o 1 o Ch o ~ l ._ D3 U
|
From page 154... ...
With increased immigration supplementing substantial internal net migration flows to the South and West, population growth in these regions has dwarfed that of the Northeast and Midwest. Table 4 describes population change in each region between 1975-1980, and between 1980-1985, by race and ethnicity.
|
From page 156... ...
Along with racial/ethnic changes of migration flows among regions, there have been changes in the racial/ethnic composition of metropolitan central cities, suburbs, and nonmetropolitan areas of each region. Table 5 presents these composition changes from 19751985.
|
From page 157... ...
157 ct Q m ._ ~ .~ 00 V ~ — ~ O ~ _ _ U~ O O ..
|
From page 158... ...
Recent minority immigrant locational trends reinforced these relative differences in minority confinement. Between 1975-1985, most minority immigrants to the Northeast and Midwest settled in the central cities of metropolitan areas, whereas in the South and West, most have settled in the suburban rings and nonmetropolitan areas.
|
From page 159... ...
Such localities appear to possess competitive advantages or disadvantages that overcome both the effects on employment growth of local industrial structure and national business cycles. To measure these competitive effects and assess their role in regional job growth and decline, shift/share techniques were applied to analyze employment changes in all counties within each region during the last two recessions (1974-1976 and 1980-1982)
|
From page 160... ...
Table 6 presents aggregate summaries of the competitive effects of metropolitan core, metropolitan rug, and nonmetropolitan counties in each region during different phases of the business cycle.: These summary statistics were obtained by aggregating the competitive components of all counties in each spatial category at each cycle phase. The algorithm for computing the competitive components standardizes the effects in a zero-sum manner such that industryspecific employment gains in one county come at the expense of another county's loss (hence, the "shift" terminology)
|
From page 161... ...
161 CO ~o C: CQ v 03 oo ._ oo ~s m o ._ ~4 ._ h _` oo :^ o O a, ~5 C: oo ~S 03 O ~ ~5 oo ~ ~ ._ ~ - o .
|
From page 162... ...
Such factors as high wage rates, union restrictions, aging infrastructure, and a negative balance of tax payments with Washington have apparently compounded problems of the Midwest's disadvantaged industrial mix during economic downturns and substantially weakened the region's ability to compete for jobs (Checkoway and Patton, 1985~. Even during the post-1982 recovery, the positive competitive effects of midwestern metropolitan ring counties did not compensate for the competitive disadvantages of midwestern metropolitan core counties and nonmetropolitan counties.
|
From page 163... ...
The large employment declines in the Midwest resulted from a disadvantaged industrial mix that was highly sensitive to economic downturns, coupled with weak competitive ejects relative to other regions. (The industrial mix of the Midwest, however, was conducive to employment growth during business cycle upswings.)
|
From page 164... ...
In fact, between March 1985-March 1986, total employment growth in the Northeast equaled that of the South, whose economy slowed for reasons that will be noted shortly. Employment changes within the three industry groups illustrate the major economic restructuring that is taking place in the regions.
|
From page 165... ...
165 ~D oo s" C: o oo oOo 03 _, ~ C: C
|
From page 166... ...
The other ~ unemployment, which reflects growth in the labor force as well as numbers of jobs. Table 8 presents labor force sizes, the number of persons employed, the number unemployed, and unemployment rates for the four regions from March 1976-March 1986, with biennial data during the 1980s.
|
From page 167... ...
Much of New England today is experiencing a labor force squeeze, in dramatic contrast to 1976 when the division had a huge surplus of labor.4 The numerical balance between labor availability and jobs (as manifested in unemployment rates) is central to understanding the numerous problems facing regions and cities.
|
From page 168... ...
. The transformation of major cities from centers of goods processing to centers of information processing was accompanied by corresponding changes in the size and composition of their employment bases.
|
From page 169... ...
Table 9, which is derived from County Business Patterns data for five major northern cities whose boundaries match or approximate county boundaries, illustrates the nature and scope of urban industrial transformation. Between 1953-1985, New York City lost over 600,000 jobs in manufacturing.
|
From page 170... ...
170 oo C
|
From page 171... ...
171 O O O O ~ CD O e~ co 0 0 e~ .
|
From page 172... ...
Observe that all five northern cities experienced substantial employment growth in their predominantly information-processing industries and marked employment declines in their other combined industries. For example, New York City added 385,000 jobs between 197~1985 in its predominantly information-processing industries (a 41 percent increase)
|
From page 173... ...
The functional transformation of major northern cities from centers of goods processing to centers of information processing during the past three decades corresponds to an important change in the education required for employment in these cities. Job losses have been
|
From page 175... ...
175 ~ O us CD .
|
From page 176... ...
Boston, on the other hand, added more jobs in industries with high educational requisites than it lost in industries with low educational requisites, a tendency that has contributed to overall city 6 Industry employment changes in cities by average educational level of jobholders were estimated by synthesizing individual-level data on the schooling completed by jobholders in detailed classified industries with data on the aggregate job changes that have occurred within each industry in each city. To measure the average educational level of employees in detailed urban industries, the March 1982 Current Population Survey (Bureau of the Census, 1982b)
|
From page 177... ...
By 1985 Boston had nearly twice as many jobs in industries with high mean employee educational levels than it had in industries with low mean levels of employee education. This fact would appear to indicate that Boston's economy has adapted especially well to the emerging postindustrial order, an adaptation that shout sustain that city's employment growth into the l990s.
|
From page 178... ...
Although job losses are continuing in manufacturing and other bluecolIar sectors of these cities, their vigorous information-processing sectors are more than compensating for blue-collar job losses, reversing decades of net employment decline. WIDENING DEMOGRAPHIC-EMP[OYMENT OPPORTUNITY MISMATCHES IN CITIES We have seen how jobs in industries with lower educational requisites have increasingly disappeared from northern cities to be partially replaced by information-processing jobs requiring substantial education or skills.
|
From page 180... ...
Detroit's large increase in numbers of black residents and its sharp drop in non-Hispanic white residents, combined with modest increases in the number of "non-Hispanic others," transformed the city's residential base from 46 percent minority in 1970 to 67 percent minority in 1980. The Bureau of the Census's Current Population Survey (1985)
|
From page 181... ...
Table 13 presents these differences, by race and sex, for the central cities of the four census regions. Bearing in mind the selective employment and demographic changes in large northern cities during the past 15 years, compare the 1985 distribution of education completed by white male residents of central cities in the Northeast and Midwest with that of black male residents in the same central cities.
|
From page 182... ...
in northern cities are still mainly concentrated in the education-completed category in which employment opportunities declined the fastest; they are least represented in that category in which northern central-city employment has expanded the most since 1970 (see Table 11~. The consequence, to reiterate, is a serious mismatch between the current educational distribution of minority residents in large northern cities and the
|
From page 183... ...
in Selected Major Northern Central Cities by Race and Sex: 1976, 1980, and 1985 Whites City and Sex 1976 1980 1985 Blacks and Others 1976 1980 1985 New York Total 10.7 7.7 7.2 12.8 10.8 10.1 Men 10.9 7.5 7.4 14.4 12.6 11.2 Women 10.3 7.9 6.9 11.0 8.9 8.8 Philadelphia Total 7.9 7.7 6.5 19.2 20.4 12.0 Men 8.5 7.8 6.1 24.9 21.8 13.4 Women 7.0 7.6 7.0 11.7 18.9 11.4 Chicago Total 5.9 9.0 8.0 14.6 15.4 24.6 Men 6.6 9.8 S.8 16.7 17.7 25.8 Women 5.0 7.8 7.0 12.3 12.8 23.0 Detroit Total 11.3 16.2 13.3 15.0 26.2 30.3 Men 11.3 18.9 15.9 12.5 31.6 29.7 Women 11.3 12.4 9.5 18.2 22.2 30.9 SOURCE: Computed from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Geographic Profiles of Employment and Unemployment, 1976-1980; 1985 figures provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
|
From page 184... ...
Philadelphia was the only major northern city listed in Table 12 that also experienced a decline in its black population between 1970-1980. The Census Bureau's Current Population Survey estimates suggest that this city's black population declined further between 198~1985, in contrast to New York, Chicago, and Detroit.
|
From page 186... ...
It also shows the large percentages of male working-age blacks in northeastern and midwestern metropolitan cities who are both out of school and out of the labor force. If one combines black unemployment rates with black labor force nonparticipation rates, the dire straits of black
|
From page 187... ...
Who Are Not in School and Not in the Labor Force, by Region, Race, and Age: 1969, 1980, and 1985 Percentage Not in School and Not in the Labor Force 1980 1985 All regions White Aged 16-24 7.3 12.1 13.5 4.5 5.2 6.1 Aged 25-64 1.6 5.2 6.2 5.8 9.8 10.4 Black Aged 16-24 13.0 29.0 37.1 8.2 13.7 14.1 Aged 25-64 3.4 10.9 14.6 10.3 18.6 20.4 Northeast White Aged 16-24 7.4 16.5 16.7 6.9 5.5 9.4 Aged 25-64 1.6 6.2 7.1 6.9 11.9 12.7 Black Aged 16-24 12.0 33.8 43.5 12.2 19.2 24.5 Aged 25-64 4.8 12.5 13.1 10.7 17.7 19.0 Midwest White Aged 16-24 7.0 14.7 19.1 3.2 2.6 7.1 Aged 25-64 1.4 6.8 8.1 5.1 9.6 10.5 Black Aged 16-24 16.3 40.5 44.5 7.2 19.4 N.A. Aged 25-64 3.0 15.2 18.6 9.9 19.9 27.0 South White Aged 16-24 6.0 8.4 8.9 4.0 8.7 3.7 Aged 25-64 1.0 3.6 4.5 5.0 9.0 9.6 Black Aged 16-24 8.5 19.4 29.2 6.9 9.5 14.3 Aged 25-64 2.4 7.1 13.9 10.6 19.3 17.1 West White Aged 16-24 9.5 9.3 11.3 4.5 3.8 5.5 Aged 25-64 2.8 4.9 5.8 6.0 8.8 9.1 Black Aged 16-24 19.7 30.0 29.6 6.0 N.A.
|
From page 188... ...
Corresponding black male unemployment and labor force nonparticipation rates tend not to be as high in the central cities of the South and West. For one reason, recall that these cities have experienced relatively fewer blue-collar job losses during the past two decades, and some cities have added large numbers of jobs in industries that do not require substantial education in their work forces.
|
From page 189... ...
During the past two decades, northern cities that lost the largest numbers of bluecollar and other jobs with Tow educational requisites simultaneously added large numbers of poorly educated minorities to their working age population. This demographic phenomenon, which contrasts sharply with that anticipated on the basis of market equilibrium models, leads to an important policy question: What is continuing to attract and/or hold large numbers of less skilled minorities in urban centers while employment opportunities appropriate to their skills are disappearing?
|
From page 190... ...
Imagine, for instance, what knight have happened in the first half of this century if the millions of structurally displaced southerners who migrated to economically expanding northern cities in search of jobs and a better life had been sustained in their distressed communities by public assistance. It is possible that many would never have moved, and the significant advances in income levels and living standards that the South and its out-migrants eventually attained would not have occurred.
|
From page 191... ...
Economic advancement of cities and maximum job creation can best be accomplished through private and public initiatives that promote information-processing and other advanced service sector industries whose functions are consistent with the roles computer-age cities most effectively perform. Cities that are proactive in capitalizing on their emerging service sector roles should experience renewed overall employment growth, as, it has been noted, is already occurring in Boston and New York City.
|
From page 192... ...
(Bureau of I,abor Statistics, 1975, 1986~. Unfortunately, essentially all of the national growth in entry-level and other jobs with low educational requisites has occurred in the suburbs, exurbs, and nonmetropolitan areas, all of which are far removed from growing concentrations of poorly educated minorities.
|
From page 193... ...
publlc-ptlvate cooperative efforts to van pool unemployed inner-city residents to suburban businesses facing labor shortages; and (7) a thorough review of all public assistance programs to ensure that they are not inadvertently anchoring those with limitem]
|
From page 194... ...
All three general strategies (jobs-to-people, people-tojobs, and educational upgrading) must be further complemented by national economic development policies that foster sustained private sector employment growth.
|
From page 195... ...
Even those of our older industrial cities that have experienced the greatest population and job losses over the past two decades have a rich architectural heritage, diverse ethnic character, and urban ambience that cannot be replicated in most newer Sunbelt cities. Recognizing and exploiting such strengths will require foresight and action on the part of local leaders.
|
From page 196... ...
Department of Commerce. 1982b Current Population Survey.
|
From page 197... ...
1983 Rethinking Urban Policy: Urban Development in an Advanced Economy. Committee on National Urban Policy, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education.
|
From page 198... ...
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development 1978 The President's National Urban Policy Report, 1978.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.