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7 Water Resources Management, Risks, and Uncertainties
Pages 175-198

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From page 175...
... RISKS AND WATER MANAGEMENT A Simple Stream This example assumes a stream with three users, all under the jurisdiction of one state: User A in the headwaters, User B in the stream's middle reach, and User C in the stream's lower reach. The average instream flow is 15 units of water.
From page 176...
... Such protec tion can result from a water right or water reservation with its own priority date that is administered along with other priorities on the stream. Legal protection also can result from a regulatory program, perhaps under the Endangered Species Act or under a water quality statute that requires maintenance of a given stream flow.
From page 177...
... Other so-called federal regulatory water rights such as sufficient flows for water quality and the protection of listed species under the Endangered Species Act, impose limits on water use both upstream and downstream of the middle reach. Whether one looks at upstream or downstream rights, pre sent flows in the Columbia River mainstem do not necessarily accurately reflect current legal allocations.
From page 178...
... State law water rights for reclamation projects and other uses in Wash ington and other states may not be fully developed; and, short of a general basinwide stream adjudication, it is difficult to deter
From page 179...
... The report enumerated major factors that appear to influence the risk of extinction and discussed the difficulties of estimating the risks of extinction, many of which are pre sented in considering potential new diversions from the Colum bia River. In addition, other NRC committees have examined is sues of the use of risk analysis in water management and risk communication (NRC, 1996, 2000)
From page 180...
... The report also noted that the effects of even minor detrimental changes in specific habitat areas may accumulate over time -- an especially relevant obser vation in the context of this report's considerations of how Co lumbia River water withdrawals affect salmon survival rates. As the report states: Not enough is known about cumulative effects and threshold points.
From page 181...
... The darker cells suggest high risk to salmon in the middle reach of the Columbia River in circumstances of low water availability and high levels of upper basin water development (i.e., a high risk of low flows compounds the situation of having high levels of use in the upper basin)
From page 182...
... Given the current setting and likely future cli matic and other trends, additional water withdrawals from the river during seasons characterized by low flows (particularly in drought years) will pose additional risks to salmon survival, which should be considered in decisions regarding potential fu ture Columbia River withdrawals during low flows.
From page 183...
... The rules might also require the organization's approval before the permit could be issued. Incremental Actions and Adaptive Management Consideration of water permit applications in the State of Washington takes place in a contentious and turbulent science and policy context.
From page 184...
... Adaptive management is not "trial and-error" management, but rather entails carefully designed management actions, with purposeful monitoring of outcomes in a structured learning process; · Flexible, incremental actions that enhance learning and that seek to avoid catastrophic error; · A means of gathering information on environmental and economic outcomes of management decisions; · A vision or a model of the ecosystem that is being man aged (Walters, 1986)
From page 185...
... . An adaptive management approach would encourage Co lumbia River basin entities to move forward incrementally and try a variety of approaches for better understanding and manag ing risks and uncertainties.
From page 186...
... Although scientific understanding of the salmon has improved over the decades, perfect understanding of all factors and relationships that affect salmon life cycles is beyond current and foreseeable future scientific means. More precise scientific information regarding salmon behav ior, environmental influences, and rates of survival could, over time, no doubt be obtained.
From page 187...
... Progress toward "comprehen sive" management cannot be accomplished through scientific in quiry alone, but rather requires stakeholders and management agencies to work with scientists in a collaborative learning proc ess, such as that framed by adaptive management principles. As stated, Columbia River salmon management is an exceedingly complex public policy and science issue.
From page 188...
... Its implementation may also be inhibited by the Endangered Species Act, as the adaptive management paradigm of accepting risks and occasional mis takes as part of a learning process runs counter to the ESA's aversion to risks. Management actions aimed at helping improve understanding of flow-survival relationships may indeed, as Volkman and McConnaha (1993)
From page 189...
... "In terruptible water rights" are post-1980 state law water rights that, under certain low flow conditions, may be curtailed to protect mainstem instream flow rights. Additional uninterruptible water rights that would not be curtailed under low flow conditions to protect mainstem instream flow rights are proposed.
From page 190...
... The money might also be used to explore the development of storage projects (these stor age projects are not described in detail. Because new storage fa cilities on the Columbia River mainstem are not a viable option, the implication is that additional storage would be gained by new dams on tributaries; by the creation of new reservoirs to be filled by water from the Columbia River; or other methods, all of which would require additional water withdrawals from the Co lumbia River mainstem)
From page 191...
... Existing in terruptible water rights could be converted to uninterruptible status by payment of $30 per acre-foot per year. The money so obtained would be used to acquire water rights to benefit salmon populations.
From page 192...
... Interruptible water rights are interruptible so that at times of scarcity, instream flows can be protected. Making any out-of stream right uninterruptible reduces flexibility to retain water in the river when salmon need it most -- during periods of high de mand and low flows.
From page 193...
... Charges for water rights in this scenario appear to be arbi trarily selected and out of proportion to the probable costs of mitigation and the value of water to the users. For example, the scenarios specify charges of $10 to $30 per acre-foot per year to be used (among other things)
From page 194...
... SUMMARY Columbia River basin water management decisions entail varying degrees of risk to salmon survival. These risks are a function of both the magnitude and the timing of management actions, such as water withdrawals.
From page 195...
... Sound, comprehen sive management strategies for Columbia River salmon will depend not only on science but also on a willingness of elected and duly appointed leaders and managers to take ac tions in the face of uncertainties. Sound management strategies will also require a process in which managers and elected officials help frame scientific inves
From page 196...
... This process is generally referred to as adaptive management. The management scenarios prepared in connection with this study contain some elements that would promote organizational flexibility and have some commonalities with adaptive manage ment strategies that are being used across the United States and in other parts of the world.
From page 197...
... Efforts to en hance flexibility are especially critical given that so many social and physical trends in the Columbia River basin -- such as poten tial additional water claims from tribal lands and other upstream areas, human population growth, and possible climate warm ing -- point to possible reduced water supplies during critical pe riods and increased risks associated with salmon management. Decisions regarding the issue of additional water withdrawal permits are matters of public policy, but if additional permits are issued, they should include specific conditions that allow withdrawals to be discontinued during critical periods.
From page 198...
... A basinwide forum for considering withdrawal permit applications would enhance uni fied water management across the Columbia River basin. The State of Washington and other basin jurisdictions should create a joint forum for documenting and discussing environmental and other consequences of proposed diver sions that exceed a specified threshold.


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