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Biographical Memoirs Volume 84 (2004) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 225-250

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From page 225...
... " It is excerpted from an essay he wrote shortly before his death.1 The second, dealing with Gordon's policy work on weather modification and climate change, is excerpted from a set of articles he wrote between 1968 and 1988.2 We close with an account of his activities in the 1990s and an attempt to evaluate Gordon's extraordinary accomplishments. WALTER MUNK WRITING ON YOUNG GORDON Gordon grew up in San Luis Potosi, Mexico.
From page 226...
... 226 B I O G R A P H I C A L M E M O I R S can, while she was working at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City.
From page 227...
... The final chapter of The Rotation of the Earth takes up the subject of the Earth's mobility, as we understood it in 1960." I was moved to learn from Naomi Oreskes, who interviewed Gordon on his views of plate tectonics, that Gordon considered his writing of Rotation of the Earth as the most satisfying experience in his scientific career. GORDON MACDONALD IN HIS OWN WORDS On Plate Tectonics.3 In the 1950s, polar wandering and " continental drift were controversial subjects, often leading to heated discussions between North American and European geophysicists and geologists.
From page 228...
... Based on my readings of Jeffreys and my close interaction with Birch, I concluded that the earth indeed possessed a finite strength." "In the early 1960s, new observations and interpretations of the sea floor data led to the theory of plate tectonics. According to this theory, low-intensity long-term stresses drive the horizontal motion of the plates.
From page 229...
... Teddy Bullard, in a masterful putdown, responded `Many precedents suggest the un-wisdom of being too sure of conclusions based on supposed properties of imperfectly understood materials in inaccessible regions of the earth.'" "Although I maintained an interest in the structure of the earth's interior, I had actually begun to disengage from the field of continental drift in 1962, when I was asked to chair a National Academy of Sciences Committee examining weather modification." On the Science and Politics of Rain Making.4 "Weather modification was one of many areas in which the federal government, through both its armed forces and its civilian agencies, was funding scientific research aimed at improving our capacity to understand, control, and modify the environment. In 1961, I was appointed to the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Atmospheric Sciences (19611970)
From page 230...
... In the early 1940s, Irving Langmuir and Vincent Schaeffer, at the General Electric Company, demonstrated that clouds could be modified by seeding them with dry ice pellets; Bernard Vonnegut demonstrated that silver iodide could do the same (thus inspiring the ice-9 of his brother, Kurt's, novels) ." "Weather modification was taken up with enthusiasm by those who hoped to use it on behalf of matters ranging from warfare to world hunger.
From page 231...
... G O R D O N J A M E S F R A S E R M A C D O N A L D 231 Brownlee of the University of Chicago, writing in the Journal of the American Statistical Association (June 1967) had the following closing: `That such nonsense should appear under the aegis of the National Academy of Sciences is deplorable.' My own conclusion, consistent with the panel report, was that there is no in-principle objection to the possibility of weather modification, and in some meteorological conditions, precipitation reaching the ground can be increased perhaps by a substantial amount by seeding." "Over the next several years I became increasingly convinced that scientists should be more actively engaged in questions of environmental modification, and that the federal government should have a more organized approach to the problem.
From page 232...
... The function of public authority is not to plan research but only to provide the opportunities for its pursuit.' My own view was different: I believed the scientific community needed to find a balance between the pressures from within and without, advancing basic knowledge and translating those advances into tools for society." "My experiences with weather modification convinced me that the topic could not be isolated from other developments in atmospheric sciences, and indeed, environmental sciences as a whole. The uncertainty over weather modification illustrated our lack of basic scientific understanding in many areas of environmental sciences.
From page 233...
... G O R D O N J A M E S F R A S E R M A C D O N A L D 233 newly established Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) under Richard Nixon (1970-72)
From page 234...
... 234 B I O G R A P H I C A L M E M O I R S cal domain, an example of how scientists being involved in politics does make a difference." "At the time, NEPA's critics said it was vague and inconclusive. Yet with its clear statement of intent -- that it be the policy of the federal government to `use all practicable means and measures .
From page 235...
... It seemed to me that the nonscientific aspects of weather modification-political, economic, sociological -- would prove far more difficult than the scientific ones. At the same time, I also became an advocate for increasing our basic understanding of the environment through the growth of environmental science." "Perhaps more important, I became convinced that inadvertent weather modification was already occurring.
From page 236...
... The average temperature worldwide has dropped about half a degree Fahrenheit over these last 30 years.' This perspective was consistent with the geological understanding of the time that we live in an inter-glacial period and are heading towards the next ice age. Our worry was that our actions might be accelerating that journey." "Yet, at the same time, we knew that carbon dioxide could have the opposite effect as particulates, and induce global warming.
From page 237...
... The exponential growth in carbon dioxide levels paralleled the increased worldwide use of carbonbased fuels, while calculations of the expected increase in average temperature of the Earth's surface since 1900 led to a value of about 0.5oC, matching the detailed analysis of
From page 238...
... I had observed that the snouts of the glaciers on the Alps on the south island of New Zealand had moved from sea level to high up the mountain between 1900 and the present. New Zealand, having a relatively isolated geographical setting in the ocean, was more likely to capture longer-term trends than glaciers in more continental regions.
From page 239...
... However, I had a vivid memory of a talk he had given in the late 1980s concerning the state of knowledge of climate modeling, particularly with regard to the cycles of the ice ages. The "standard model" was the Milankovitch theory, as modified by John Imbrie and others.
From page 240...
... we extended Gordon's 1993 insight: that the narrow 100 kiloyear peak was prima facie evidence that the cycles of the ice ages were driven by orbital forcing and were not the result of internal changes in the earth or the sun. Our book Ice Ages and Their Astronomical Causes (2000)
From page 241...
... at the Institute of Geophysics at the University of California, Los Angeles, to a professorship in physics and geophysics at the University of California, Santa Barbara, to the chair in environmental studies and policy at Dartmouth,
From page 242...
... We have chosen to emphasize two major late twentiethcentury issues in which Gordon played a significant role: plate tectonics and climate. On plate tectonics, in the long run Gordon's opposition to Earth mobility turned out to be in error; he based his reasoning on a model Earth of finite strength rather than the high-temperature creep of nearly (or partially)
From page 243...
... Neither the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies of the University of California, San Diego, nor the Governing Council of IIASA, nor his body now weakened by childhood polio, could accommodate to his singular style of work and living. He was reluctant to use a walker or wheelchair, and Austria was not friendly to his developing handicaps.
From page 244...
... Weather modification as a weapon. Technol.
From page 245...
... 4(1968) :8-14; Weather modification.
From page 246...
... The magnetic field and the central core of the earth. Geophys.
From page 247...
... 24:8-14. 1975 Weather modification as a weapon of war.
From page 248...
... 2001 How mobile is the earth? In Plate Tectonics: An Insider's History of the Modern Theory of the Earth, ed.
From page 250...
... Ottawa Karsh, by Photo


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