Growing Up Global The Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries (2005) / Chapter Skim
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32 2 Conceptual Framework INTRODUCTION The largest cohort of young people living in developing countries ever is currently coming of age in a rapidly changing world. Simultaneous changes in technology, economics, culture, politics, demographics, the environment, and education are creating greater connectivity among countries, communities, and individuals.
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 33 it has introduced new kinds of international conflicts and problems such as rising inequality, social polarization, and the demise of the nation-state (see, for example, Lechner and Boli, 2000; Milanovic, 2003; Wade, 2004)
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34 A . C ha ng in g gl ob al co n te xt • E co no m y • T ec hn ol og y • P ol iti ca l s ys te m s • P op ul at io n • F or m al s ch oo lin g • H ea lth e nv iro nm en t • C ul tu re • In te rn at io na l go ve rn an ce s ys te m s • A rm ed c on flic t B .
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 35 context (Box C)
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36 GROWING UP GLOBAL opportunity structures and constraints pervade the institutions that shape young peoples' lives at all levels, from political structures, laws, and national education systems on one hand, to the family, the classroom, and the local youth center on the other. At the same time, some of the new opportunities that have resulted from globalization have been gender specific, such as new employment opportunities for young women in garment factories in Bangladesh and for young men in construction in the Persian Gulf.
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 37 Furthermore, while global change is important in the lives of many young people, its impact around the world has been highly uneven: Over the last 20 years, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has risen spectacularly in India, China, and parts of Pacific Asia, roughly stagnated in Latin America, and fallen dramatically in the former Soviet Union, Central and Eastern Europe, and across sub-Saharan Africa (Wade, 2004)
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38 GROWING UP GLOBAL very unevenly distributed, being concentrated in some of the larger cities and special economic zones. For millions of adolescents throughout the developing world, this global economic restructuring has dramatically transformed possible life trajectories.
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 39 the world, enabling multinational companies to establish new markets and to move their points of production away from their traditional consumers. Rapid technological change presents young people with many opportunities and challenges.
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40 GROWING UP GLOBAL greater citizen participation through local social and environmental movements, community interest groups, and other nongovernmental organizations. It has also been accompanied by a growing trend toward decentralization of power and responsibility to local government authorities.
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 41 counteracts some slow declines in absolute numbers in other parts of Asia and in Latin America. While the population of young people in Eastern Asia (largely China)
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42 GROWING UP GLOBAL TABLE 2-1 Population of Young People by Region Total Population Population Ages (millions) 10-24 Region 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 WORLD 4,435 6,454 8,130 1,336 1,755 1,875 More Developed Regions 1,083 1,209 1,242 263 237 201 Less Developed Regions 3,352 5,245 6,888 1,072 1,518 1,673 Least Developed Regions 400 753 1,257 127 246 389 Africa 470 888 1,398 147 294 435 Eastern 144 282 462 45 96 152 Middle 53 106 191 16 35 64 Northern 111 190 267 35 60 68 Southern 33 52 49 11 17 14 Western 128 257 429 40 86 137 Asia (excluding Japan)
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 43 % Population Annual Growth Ages 10-24 Rate 1980 2005 2030 1980-2005 2005-2030 30.1 27.1 23.0 1.1 0.3 24.2 19.6 16.1 –0.4 –0.6 31.9 28.9 24.3 1.4 0.4 31.8 32.6 30.9 2.6 1.8 31.3 33.1 31.1 2.8 1.6 31.2 34.0 32.9 3.0 1.8 30.2 33.0 33.5 3.1 2.4 31.5 31.6 25.5 2.2 0.5 33.3 32.7 28.6 1.7 –0.8 31.2 33.5 31.9 3.0 1.9 32.0 27.9 22.6 1.1 0.6 32.6 24.0 18.3 –0.1 –0.7 31.3 30.5 25.0 1.9 0.4 32.7 29.6 22.8 1.4 –0.1 31.3 30.0 25.6 2.3 1.0 32.4 28.9 22.4 1.3 –0.1 31.0 28.2 22.2 0.8 –0.4 33.3 30.6 23.2 1.6 0.0 31.8 28.2 22.0 1.2 –0.04 20.0 33.3 23.0 4.4 0.0 Continued global integration is also being accelerated by and accelerating growth in the proportion living in urban areas. Throughout the developing world, economic growth and development are virtually synonymous with rapid urbanization and city growth.
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44 GROWING UP GLOBAL TABLE 2-2 Changes in Percentage of Total Population by Broad Age Group Over Time, by Region Year Region and Age Group 1980 2005 2030 WORLD 0-9 23.9 19.0 15.4 10-24 30.1 27.2 23.1 25-64 40.0 46.5 49.8 65+ 5.9 7.3 11.8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Africa 0-9 32.8 29.3 23.6 10-24 31.4 33.1 31.1 25-64 32.7 34.2 40.6 65+ 3.1 3.3 4.6 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Asia 0-9 25.3 18.7 14.3 10-24 31.6 27.6 22.3 25-64 38.7 47.4 51.8 65+ 4.4 6.4 11.5 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Latin America and the Caribbean 0-9 27.5 20.0 14.3 10-24 32.3 28.7 22.4 25-64 35.8 45.3 51.7 65+ 4.5 6.0 11.5 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 SOURCE: United Nations (2003d)
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 45 bonus, has been credited as being a major factor in enabling sustained economic growth (Bloom and Williamson, 1998; Mason, Merrick, and Shaw, 1999)
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46 GROWING UP GLOBAL Pakistan, Afghanistan) where government primary schools are single-sex and girls' schools are still in relatively short supply (Sathar et al., 2003a)
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 47 mortality. Although there remain substantial inequalities in health between countries, regions, socioeconomic groups, and individuals, 85 percent of children born in the developing world now survive to age 5 (Leon and Walt, 2001)
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48 GROWING UP GLOBAL vices, in particular access to contraceptives and condoms and to testing and treatment for STIs, including HIV/AIDS, are a critical feature of the health service environment for young people. Over two-thirds of people in developing countries now live in countries in which family planning programs are rated as relatively strong.
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 49 Cultural Diffusion and Ideational Change Young people's frames of reference are influenced on one hand by traditional cultural norms and values passed on to them from their parents, family members, teachers and other members of the community, and on the other hand by new and emergent ideas, beliefs, and ideologies that are brought about by the global age in which they live and spread transnationally. Global change, including access to Western and other international media, markets, and youth culture on one hand and the spread of transnational religious movements on the other, are potentially important new elements shaping the contemporary lives of young people in their local context.
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50 GROWING UP GLOBAL these identities to become entirely globally oriented." Surface-level similarities in teenage culture obscure the huge regional differences in family structures, behavioral expectations, and patterns of sexuality, marriage, and reproduction. This suggests that the dominant factor in any region continues to be the traditional underlying culture (Caldwell et al., 1998)
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 51 of women (Booth, 2002)
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52 GROWING UP GLOBAL "establish equal relationship with parents" (Arnett, 2003)
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 53 point for child policy for several reasons. First, for the first time ever, a dependent phase of life from 0 to 18 was separately delineated and addressed.
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54 GROWING UP GLOBAL ing married or pregnant girls from attending school; protective labor legislation that affects the work opportunities of children and mothers; social movements (e.g., for human rights; women's, children's, and minority rights; and environmental protections) ; and armed conflict.
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 55 tions (see above)
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56 GROWING UP GLOBAL up in traditional rural households, while others grow up in more progressive urban areas. In many settings, traditional family configurations are changing with fertility decline and rising divorce and remarriage rates, implying smaller average household size and more complex and multiresidence families.
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 57 or what other indirect (and often conflicting) signals parents give off (see, for example, Gorgen, Laier, and Diesfeld, 1993)
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58 GROWING UP GLOBAL peer educators also distribute nonclinical contraceptives. Evaluations of peer promotion strategies have found varying levels of success.
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 59 Two of the regions in particular -- Latin America and the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa -- have diverged negatively with regard to economic growth rates and only two of the regions -- East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia -- have been converging in terms of per capita real product. Although the majority of young people in the developing world live in the latter two regions, there is a significant minority that lives in the other regions for which there has been a tendency for divergence in per capita real product.
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60 GROWING UP GLOBAL BOX 2-1 Trends in Poverty Measuring poverty rates in developing countries is a complex and challenging task that has been the focus of extensive research. The absence of reliable and consistent data to estimate poverty was one of the main motivations for the World Bank's major effort to collect comparable household surveys on income and consumption in a large number of countries (Grosh and Glewwe, 2000)
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 61 in 1987 to 23.4 percent in 1998. This decline in the percentage in poverty was just large enough to offset the substantial population growth in developing countries during this period, leading to almost no change in the total number of people in poverty.
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62 GROWING UP GLOBAL TABLE 2-4 Absolute Number and Percentage of Population in Poverty in World Regions, 1987 and 1998 $1 Per Day Poverty Line % of Population Covered by Number of People % of at Least in Poverty Population One Survey (millions) in Poverty Region 1987 1998 1987 1998 East Asia and the Pacific 90.8 417.5 267.1 26.6 14.7 East Asia and the Pacific (excluding China)
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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 63 $2 Per Day Poverty Line Number of People % of in Poverty Population (millions) in Poverty 1987 1998 1987 1998 1052.3 884.9 67.0 48.7 299.9 252.1 62.9 44.3 16.3 98.2 3.6 20.7 147.6 159.0 35.5 31.7 65.1 85.4 30.0 29.9 911.0 1,094.6 86.3 83.9 356.6 489.3 76.5 78.0 2,549.0 2,811.5 61.0 56.1 1,796.6 2,178.7 58.2 57.9 The overall declines in poverty rates are based on quite different experiences in different regions, however, as poverty rates vary widely across regions, ranging from 12-15 percent for Latin America and East Asia to almost 50 percent in Africa.
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