Assessment of the Benefits of Extending the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission A Perspective from the Research and Operations Communities: Interim Report (2006) / Chapter Skim
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2 Decision Context
2 Decision Context
Pages 17-24
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From page 17... ...
and other federal agencies that operate research satellites and sensors that work superbly past completion of their primary scientific mission and hold impressive possibilities for both scientific and operational advances.1 Extending TRMM is also part of the larger question of how the United States manages the transition from research to operations, and from one agency to others. Earlier reports (e.g., NRC, 2003)
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NASA has approached other agencies for their help in supporting the cost of extending the mission beyond 2004 but without success to date.4 Current NASA policy regarding mission extensions puts the burden on research programs to underwrite costs incurred by NASA.5 The current NASA precipitation research budget is around $16 million per year. The key budget number in Table 2-1 is the combined cost of mission operations and controlled reentry in fiscal year 2005, that is, $4.3 million.
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First, operating costs are projected to be lower than current values in fiscal year 2005 and beyond because of current efforts to increase automation within flight operations, thereby reducing staffing levels. No reserves are included in the estimates to mitigate the risks of not achieving these reductions or from risks due to other factors (e.g., NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center manpower and other annual rate fluctuations)
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, NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance estimates that there is a 2 in 10,000 casualty risk associated with an uncontrolled reentry of TRMM. The review states that the TRMM uncontrolled reentry casualty risk is in an "intermediate, or tolerability zone, where the risk may be tolerated in return for other (public safety)
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. reaches phase nominal Remaining various lifetime late Jan-11 2004 level Boost the scenarios: mean workshop.
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There are other factors that decision makers should consider in making an informed decision including: possible legal considerations, policy considerations, and international considerations. Barring any impediments from NASA Legal Council, it is concluded that a decision to accept the uncontrolled reentry public safety risk of TRMM, in exchange for extending the mission and potentially benefiting from the improvement in storm analysis and forecasting capabilities, is reasonable and within the discretion of the Earth Science Enterprise and the NASA Administrator.
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From page 23... ...
Recommendation 1.1: If NASA wishes to use risk assessments as a basis for deorbiting assessments, the agency must consider such risks and bene fits more comprehensively than it presently does. Recommendation 1.2: Given the material presented at the workshop, we recommend that NASA should not base its decision to extend the TRMM mission primarily on quantitative comparisons between "lives potentially saved" through operational exploitation of TRMM data and "potential haz ard" associated with uncontrolled reentry.
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From page 24... ...
o Finding 4.2: If advances in engineering design and launch vehicle suc cess rates allow for the potential extension of research missions beyond origi nal plans, then this creates a new set of decisions for the remote sensing sci ence community. o Finding 4.3: Decision makers lack knowledge necessary to prioritize observational programs and plans according to their contributions to science and society.
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