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Appendix D Demographic Projections of the Research Workforce, 2001-2011
Appendix D Demographic Projections of the Research Workforce, 2001-2011
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From page 120... ...
fields covered and the data used: more than those in underlie this attempt to project the research workforce. To the previous application of the model; determine how this workforce will grow, projections are cre- 2.
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. Some proportion of each of these groups returns to the faculty from the American Association of Medical Colleges active research workforce every year.
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doctoral degrees. It is decremented by retirements and rately.
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APPENDIX D 123 4,000 1995 high projection Reported data 1995 medium projection 1995 low projection 3,500 Males 3,000 Graduates of Number 2,500 Females 2,000 1,500 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Years FIGURE D-A Reported biomedical graduates and high, medium, and low projections from 1995, by sex. SOURCE: Addressing the Nation's Changing Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists.
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Two major factors contributed to this increase. First, in each field has grown steadily.
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First, R01 grants are not the only · of the total, only 64 percent have M.D.s, rather than possible type of grant; research funds from pharmaceutical Ph.D.s, M.D./Ph.D.s, or no doctoral degree (M.D./Ph.D.s are companies, foundations, and other sources compose a sig
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clinical research workforce, it could be in the potential workforce. assumed that their numbers are between 3,000 and 13,000.
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APPENDIX D 127 6,000 Males unemployed Males not in labor force 5,000 Females unemployed Females not in labor force 4,000 3,000 working not Number 2,000 1,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Years FIGURE D-4 Numbers unemployed and not in labor force for all fields combined by sex, 19732001. SOURCE: National Science Foundation Survey of Doctorate Recipients.
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128 APPENDIX D TABLE D-2 Medical School Faculty, by Major Field and date of entry into the United States are broken down and Degree, and Number and Percent Having Had an R01 then are "reverse survived" by age group for each field and Grant, 2000 sex to obtain estimates of their original numbers at entry going back as far as 1980. Second, this flow of migrants, Total Biomedical Clinical Behavioral from 1980 to 1990, is projected forward to 2001 using regression models.
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APPENDIX D 129 25,000 Stock (as surveyed) Entrants Projected stock 20,000 Ph.D.s 15,000 Biomedical 10,000 Foreign-Trained of Number 5,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Years FIGURE D-5 Proportion of temporary residents among graduates and proportion of each group intending to stay in the United States: Means for 19972001.
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130 APPENDIX D 25,000 Stock, foreign-trained postdocs Entrants, foreign-trained postdocs Projected stock, all foreign trained 20,000 Ph.D.s Biomedical 15,000 Foreign-Trained 10,000 of Number 5,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Years FIGURE D-6 Foreign-trained biomedical Ph.D.s: postdoctorates, postdoctoral entrants, and projected total stock. SOURCE: National Science Foundation Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering; and National Science Foundation National Survey of College Graduates.
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APPENDIX D 131 TABLE D-3 Potential Workforce of Foreign-Trained Ph.D.s In Three Major Fields, By Employment Status, 2001: Medium and High Estimates % Distribution % Males Among % Foreign Trained Number by Status Foreign Trained of Total Workforce Field and Employment Status Medium High Medium High Medium High Medium High Biomedical Potential workforce 17,443 24,795 100.0 100.0 55.6 52.5 13.3 18.0 Employed 14,629 20,514 83.9 82.7 61.9 59.3 12.7 17.0 Unemployed 105 140 0.6 0.6 53.3 49.3 9.3 12.1 Not in labor forcea 1,478 2,423 8.5 9.8 5.2 4.2 27.4 38.2 Out of science 1,231 1,718 7.1 6.9 42.1 39.2 13.2 17.5 Clinical Potential workforce 6,197 8,133 100.0 100.0 79.1 78.8 24.5 29.9 Employed 5,846 7,683 94.3 94.5 79.8 79.4 25.4 30.9 Unemployed 17 21 0.3 0.3 52.9 52.4 11.8 14.2 Not in labor forcea 30 38 0.5 0.5 30.0 28.9 6.9 8.6 Out of science 304 391 4.9 4.8 72.4 73.1 17.9 21.9 Behavioral Potential workforce 3,483 4,284 100.0 100.0 38.8 34.8 3.0 3.6 Employed 3,041 3,756 87.3 87.7 39.1 34.9 3.0 3.7 Unemployed 14 17 0.4 0.4 21.4 17.6 1.7 2.1 Not in labor forcea 105 137 3.0 3.2 7.6 6.6 3.0 3.9 Out of science 323 374 9.3 8.7 47.4 44.7 2.9 3.4 aNot employed, not looking for work, but not retired. SOURCE: National Science Foundation Survey of Doctorate Recipients.
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132 APPENDIX D 3,500 Male biomedical 3,000 Male behavioral 2,500 2,000 Graduates Female behavioral Ph.D. of 1,500 Female biomedical Number Female clinical 1,000 500 Male clinical 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Years FIGURE D-7 Trends in Ph.D.
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APPENDIX D 133 TABLE D-4 Regressions For Total Ph.D. Graduates By Major Field and Sex From 1985 From 1985 From 1990 From 1995 B t-test B t-test B t-test B t-test Male biomedical Year 66.356 10.53 16400.811 4.04 47.245 4.66 3.742 0.28 Constant 129516 10.31 16406702 4.05 91351 4.52 10542 0.39 R2 0.881 0.945 0.685 0.015 Female biomedical Year 92.043 20.38 8291.131 2.26 86.031 9.63 40.635 2.87 Year2 2.057 2.23 Constant 181592 20.17 8351933 2.28 169586 9.52 78864 2.79 R2 0.965 0.974 0.903 0.623 Male clinical Year 19.002 25.63 329.462 0.47 19.968 13.70 17.746 4.38 Year2 0.087 0.50 Constant 37479 25.36 309764 0.45 39407 13.55 34969 4.32 R2 0.978 0.978 0.949 0.794 Female clinical Year 40.917 21.34 1808.031 1.03 40.441 11.00 35.361 3.84 Year2 0.443 1.01 Constant 80850 21.16 1841769 1.06 79901 10.89 69752 3.80 R2 0.968 0.970 0.924 0.747 Male behavioral Year 26.591 8.69 6125.923 2.56 18.257 4.36 10.710 1.30 Year2 1.530 2.55 Constant 54699 8.97 6132646 2.57 38060 4.55 22973 1.40 R2 0.834 0.887 0.655 0.252 Female behavioral Year 62.020 14.17 6678.112 1.78 52.806 6.49 38.210 1.80 Year2 1.660 1.77 Constant 121132 13.88 6714028 1.80 102732 6.33 73559 1.73 R2 0.930 0.943 0.808 0.393 SOURCE: Analysis based on data from the National Science Foundation Survey of Earned Doctorates.
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134 APPENDIX D 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 Graduates 2,800 Female 2,600 of Reported 2,400 Number Constant From 1985 2,200 Quadratic From 1990 2,000 From 1995 1,800 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Years FIGURE D-8 Female behavioral graduates projected using various equations. SOURCE: National Science Foundation Survey of Earned Doctorates, 2001.
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APPENDIX D 135 1.00 0.95 U.S. in Staying Graduates 0.90 All of Proportion 0.85 Male biomedical Female biomedical Male clinical Female clinical Male behavioral Female behavioral 0.80 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Years FIGURE D-9 Proportion of all graduates intending to stay and rising and constant projections by major field and sex, 19902011.
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136 APPENDIX D numbers of cases in various categories are small, data were Those not working (whether unemployed or not in the pooled across surveys and tabulations were produced for labor force) tend to be proportionally more numerous among employment status initially and again two years later.
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An analysis of the research workforce provides the base Table D-7 shows the varying numbers of graduates asfor 10-year projections. The inflows, outflows, and shifts in sumed in each scenario.
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138 APPENDIX D TABLE D-8 Projected Inflow of Foreign-Trained Ph.D.s by Major Field: Medium, High, and Low Scenarios Biomedical Clinical Behavioral Field and Year Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium High Low 2002 1,003 1,785 977 504 724 483 93 200 82 2003 1,037 1,845 978 524 751 478 93 208 83 2004 1,064 1,901 979 548 782 478 94 216 83 2005 1,095 1,949 980 570 818 480 93 222 83 2006 1,126 2,010 983 592 846 480 94 228 83 2007 1,160 2,060 984 615 876 480 95 233 83 2008 1,190 2,123 986 643 909 480 95 240 83 2009 1,222 2,181 986 665 940 479 95 247 83 2010 1,255 2,234 988 685 969 479 95 256 83 2011 1,283 2,287 988 708 1,003 479 95 263 83 Total 11,435 20,375 9,829 6,054 8,618 4,796 942 2,313 829 Stock, 2001 17,437 24,787 17,437 6,178 8,115 6,178 3,469 4,269 3,469 SOURCE: NRC analysis. reach this level.
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and will be discussed in a later section. These projected num- However, in reality it may vary and whether it will depends bers of employed change in a complex fashion and can in- on how many research positions are available in these fields; crease faster or slower than the workforce.
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140 APPENDIX D TABLE D-9 Projected Workforce and Employed Researchers, by Field, Three Main Scenarios, 20012011 Potential Workforce Employed Field and Year Medium High Low Medium High Low Biomedical 2001 130,726 138,076 130,726 114,889 120,776 114,889 2002 135,505 143,922 135,215 118,379 125,111 118,172 2003 140,203 149,792 139,514 121,912 129,584 121,426 2004 144,840 155,697 143,649 125,531 134,221 124,681 2005 149,446 161,663 147,654 129,236 139,019 127,941 2006 154,049 167,727 151,551 133,030 143,992 131,203 2007 158,605 173,830 155,291 136,843 149,059 134,392 2008 163,113 179,975 158,881 140,649 154,191 137,484 2009 167,584 186,172 162,323 144,436 159,379 140,464 2010 172,019 192,419 165,623 148,191 164,610 143,325 2011 176,400 198,703 168,770 151,889 169,864 146,046 Clinical 2001 25,282 27,219 25,282 23,020 24,860 23,020 2002 26,838 29,084 26,732 24,580 26,706 24,483 2003 28,439 31,025 28,175 26,125 28,566 25,881 2004 30,059 33,014 29,584 27,686 30,467 27,246 2005 31,686 35,054 30,956 29,250 32,411 28,573 2006 33,332 37,138 32,292 30,818 34,382 29,856 2007 35,002 39,275 33,598 32,399 36,392 31,101 2008 36,679 41,456 34,861 33,978 38,436 32,298 2009 38,352 43,659 36,068 35,542 40,485 33,429 2010 40,031 45,902 37,234 37,102 42,564 34,512 2011 41,716 48,181 38,355 38,662 44,675 35,551 Behavioral 2001 117,466 118,266 117,466 102,193 102,898 102,193 2002 119,737 120,783 119,589 104,951 105,871 104,820 2003 121,833 123,174 121,499 107,302 108,476 107,005 2004 123,862 125,548 123,297 109,464 110,928 108,956 2005 125,813 127,888 124,980 111,457 113,253 110,708 2006 127,670 130,178 126,526 113,319 115,491 112,288 2007 129,371 132,363 127,874 114,993 117,594 113,644 2008 130,892 134,408 128,998 116,462 119,528 114,752 2009 132,244 136,343 129,919 117,747 121,333 115,648 2010 133,450 138,176 130,649 118,884 123,034 116,354 2011 134,466 139,863 131,149 119,840 124,594 116,845 Ten-year increase Biomedical 45,674 60,627 38,044 37,000 49,088 31,157 Clinical 16,434 20,962 13,073 15,642 19,815 12,531 Behavioral 17,000 21,597 13,683 17,647 21,696 14,652 Average annual growth (%) Biomedical 3.00 3.64 2.55 2.79 3.41 2.40 Clinical 5.01 5.71 4.17 5.18 5.86 4.35 Behavioral 1.35 1.68 1.10 1.59 1.91 1.34 SOURCE: NRC analysis.
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APPENDIX D 141 TABLE D-10 Projected Annual Growth Rates, and Inflow proportion of the workforce and essentially be replaced by and Outflow Rates (%) for the Potential Workforce,by those older than 60 (see Figure D-14)
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2001 10,957 794 3,522 15,273 Table D-13 compares these scenarios with the medium, 2002 10,915 577 3,293 14,785 high, and low scenarios. The behavioral research workforce 2003 10,860 509 3,161 14,530 is little affected by the assumed variations because the num 2004 10,816 481 3,101 14,398 ber of foreign-trained Ph.D.s are few.
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APPENDIX D 143 Out of science Not in labor force 10 Unemployed Behavioral 9 8 Biomedical 7 Clinical 6 Workforce 5 of 4 Percent 3 2 1 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Years FIGURE D-12 Projected percent of workforce not active in research (out of science, not in the labor force, or unemployed) by field, 2001 2011.
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144 APPENDIX D 50,000 40,000 30,000 Females 20,000 Minus Males 10,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Biomedical Year -10,000 Clinical Behavioral -20,000 FIGURE D-13 Difference between numbers of employed males and females by field, 20012011. SOURCE: NRC analysis.
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APPENDIX D 145 100 80 60 Biomedical Clinical Behavioral U.S. Population Workforce of 40 Percent 20 0 2001 2004 2007 2010 2001 2004 2007 2010 2001 2004 2007 2010 2001 2004 2007 2010 Years 25-40 41-60 61-76 FIGURE D-14 Age distribution (percent)
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Comparisons are made with projected U.S.-trained re searchers because research positions have been projected from survey data limited to U.S. graduates.
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APPENDIX D 147 TABLE D-13 Percent Foreign Trained in Alternative Scenarios, Projected 2011 Total Workforce, and Comparisons of Total to Medium Scenario, by Field % Foreign Trained Among Ratio to Medium Scenario Entrants (20022011) 2011 Total Workforce Total Workforce Scenario Biomedical Clinical Behavioral Biomedical Clinical Behavioral Biomedical Clinical Behavioral High 23.3 31.2 4.5 198,703 48,181 139,863 1.13 1.15 1.04 Rising 15.8 26.6 2.0 178,203 42,011 135,139 1.01 1.01 1.01 Medium 15.8 26.6 2.0 176,400 41,716 134,466 1.00 1.00 1.00 90% 13.2 21.5 1.8 172,702 39,843 134,180 0.98 0.96 1.00 50% 8.7 14.2 1.0 163,699 36,886 133,105 0.93 0.88 0.99 0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 152,346 33,184 131,791 0.86 0.80 0.98 Low 15.3 24.9 1.9 168,770 38,355 131,149 0.96 0.92 0.98 SOURCE: NRC analysis.
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148 APPENDIX D TABLE D-14 Linear Regressions for Trends in Employment in Various Sectors 19972001 Data 19812001 Data Constant B t-test R2 Constant B t-test R2 Biomedical researchers Faculty 1050820 544.25 8.44 0.986 943405 490.08 6.88 0.840 Other academics 961154 485.00 5.92 0.972 550611 279.69 15.65 0.965 Industry 3618579 1823.00 6.81 0.979 1942012 984.15 16.98 0.970 Government 329386 168.50 1.89 0.781 300883 154.16 12.02 0.941 Other 238397 121.25 12.18 0.993 20757 8.42 0.29 0.009 Postdoctorates 430600 209.25 1.02 0.511 784436 398.21 7.11 0.849 All employed 5773736 2935.75 7.12 0.981 4500066 2297.61 19.18 0.976 Clinical researchers Faculty 891776 449.75 10.42 0.991 529538 268.42 15.27 0.963 Other academics 207292 104.25 4.49 0.953 103572 52.32 9.65 0.912 Industry 418385 211.25 2.82 0.888 292163 148.06 19.47 0.977 Government 67025 34.25 0.42 0.147 104107 52.80 11.18 0.933 Other 12660 7.00 1.01 0.505 85473 43.38 8.65 0.893 Postdoctorates 57922 28.75 1.52 0.698 33401 16.92 3.55 0.583 All employed 1539217 777.75 7.56 0.983 1148253 581.90 18.02 0.973 Behavioral researchers Faculty 740856 387.50 11.09 0.992 750028 391.74 5.89 0.794 Other academics 1009329 510.00 46.49 1.000 716760 363.48 15.09 0.962 Industry 1881172 956.50 4.95 0.961 2296361 1164.63 19.79 0.978 Government 82699 46.25 1.81 0.766 683510 346.82 8.89 0.898 Other 192626 100.75 7.67 0.983 69222 30.17 0.38 0.016 Postdoctorates 247152 122.50 2.22 0.832 137383 69.70 3.06 0.509 All employed 3648552 1873.00 12.95 0.994 4512779 2305.16 31.26 0.991 SOURCE: Analysis based on National Science Foundation Survey of Earned Doctorates. bers; consequently the resulting employment projections not to be active in science or by foreign-trained Ph.D.s.
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APPENDIX D 149 TABLE D-15 Positions by Sector and Increases from trained migrant Ph.D.s, their numbers are unlikely to be suf20012011 In Alternative Projections, by Major Field ficient to fill any gap. In principle, a deficit could be filled from the portion of the workforce with jobs outside science Projected 10-Year because this field is larger than the other two.
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150 APPENDIX D TABLE D-17 Excess or Deficit of U.S.-Trained Researchers in Relation to Various Projections of Research Positions Excess or Deficit Relative to Positions Excess or Deficit as % of Positions Projected from Based on BLS Projected from Based on BLS Trend Over Growth Rates to Trend Over Growth Rates to Field and Year 5 Years 20 Years 2010 2012 5 Years 20 Years 2010 2012 Biomedical 2002 483 3,395 1,033 1,080 0.5 3.4 1.0 1.1 2003 712 3,800 1,810 1,905 0.7 3.7 1.7 1.8 2004 952 4,196 2,541 2,685 0.9 4.0 2.4 2.5 2005 1,124 4,659 3,302 3,499 1.0 4.4 3.1 3.2 2006 1,215 5,203 4,107 4,357 1.1 4.8 3.7 4.0 2007 1,284 5,768 4,894 5,200 1.1 5.2 4.4 4.7 2008 1,352 6,335 5,644 6,008 1.1 5.6 4.9 5.3 2009 1,430 6,892 6,344 6,768 1.2 5.9 5.5 5.8 2010 1,529 7,428 6,983 7,468 1.2 6.3 5.9 6.3 2011 1,664 7,927 7,543 8,092 1.3 6.6 6.2 6.7 Clinical 2002 442 1,561 685 680 2.5 9.3 3.9 3.9 2003 727 2,042 1,322 1,311 3.9 11.8 7.3 7.3 2004 1,011 2,521 1,947 1,930 5.2 14.1 10.5 10.4 2005 1,287 2,993 2,554 2,530 6.4 16.2 13.5 13.4 2006 1,554 3,456 3,141 3,111 7.4 18.1 16.2 16.0 2007 1,818 3,916 3,714 3,678 8.4 20.0 18.7 18.5 2008 2,058 4,351 4,251 4,207 9.1 21.5 20.9 20.7 2009 2,258 4,747 4,737 4,686 9.7 22.8 22.8 22.5 2010 2,437 5,122 5,191 5,131 10.1 24.0 24.4 24.0 2011 2,605 5,487 5,621 5,553 10.5 25.0 25.8 25.4 Behavioral 2002 675 272 581 537 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 2003 1,150 224 744 653 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 2004 1,434 369 667 529 1.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 2005 1,553 677 378 189 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 2006 1,540 1,118 94 335 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.3 2007 1,337 1,748 805 1,100 1.2 1.5 0.7 1.0 2008 934 2,579 1,769 2,121 0.8 2.2 1.5 1.8 2009 352 3,589 2,964 3,375 0.3 3.0 2.5 2.9 2010 368 4,737 4,351 4,823 0.3 3.9 3.6 4.0 2011 1,260 6,056 5,965 6,501 1.1 4.9 4.9 5.3 SOURCE: NRC analysis. rising just as insistently.
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APPENDIX D 151 BIOMEDICAL 2006 5-year trend 20-year trend 2011 BLS 20002010 BLS 20022012 CLINICAL 5-year trend 20-year trend BLS 20002010 BLS 20022012 BEHAVIORAL 5-year trend 20-year trend BLS 20002010 BLS 20022012 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Percent excess or deficit FIGURE D-16 Percent excess or deficit of U.S.-trained researchers in relation to various projections of research positions, 2006 and 2011. SOURCE: NRC analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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152 APPENDIX D U.S. citizen & permanent resident Ph.D.s 7,000 Temporary-resident U.S.-trained Ph.D.s Temporary-resident foreign-trained Ph.D.s 6,000 M.D.s 5,000 4,000 Postdoctorates of 3,000 Number 2,000 1,000 0 1983 1988 1993 1998 1983 1988 1993 1998 1983 1988 1993 1998 Years FIGURE D-17 Postdoctorates reported by graduate departments, by field, degree, and visa status, 19832001.
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APPENDIX D 153 10,000 Biomedical Academic sector U.S.-trained Ph.D.s Clinical 8,000 Academic sector U.S.-trained Ph.D.s Behavioral Academic sector U.S.-trained Ph.D.s 6,000 Postdoctorates of Number 4,000 Total 2,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Years FIGURE D-18 Postdoctorates compared from sector data and department reports, by field 19732001. SOURCES: National Science Foundation Survey of Earned Doctorates, 2001, and National Science Foundation Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Engineering and Science, 2001.
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However, Projected Positions whether past employment trends will be sustained in the fu Postdocs in Workforce from Trend Over ture is not known. Societal changes, such as the aging of the population, the increasing need for and complexity of health Field and Year Medium High Low 5 years 20 years care, and the growing importance of science-based decision making could affect the demand for health research.
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APPENDIX D 155 16,000 Biomedical 14,000 Sector projections Workforce Clinical 12,000 Sector projections Workforce Behavioral 10,000 Sector projections Workforce 8,000 Postdoctorates of 6,000 Number 4,000 2,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year FIGURE D-19 Reported and projected U.S.-trained postdoctorates and postdoctorate positions, 19732011. SOURCES: National Science Foundation Survey of Doctorate Recipients; and NRC analysis.
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