Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One) A First Look Forward (2005) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix G: Report of the Panel of Sequestration R&D
Appendix G: Report of the Panel of Sequestration R&D
Pages 89-101
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From page 89... ...
In order to evaluate the applicability of this apfrom the committee described in Chapter 2 and Appendix E proach for program assessment, the committee recomThe panel had considerable flexibility in determining how to mended applying the method to three DOE programs: lightfulfill this charge.
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From page 90... ...
DOE issued Overview of the Panel's Approach a final report on carbon sequestration R&D, which set out the technology roadmap, identifying a framework of R&D The committee's proposed benefits methodology requires through demonstration that would allow carbon sequestra- an estimation of the expected economic, environmental, and tion to play a significant role in reducing carbon emissions if national security benefits in three global economic/environthat objective became a national priority (DOE, 1999)
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From page 91... ...
and begin actively pursuing concepts tailored to · Outreach and education Phase II partnerships begin sequestration deployments. opportunities within specific pursing action plans and regions of the United States validation of sequestration and involve citizens, concepts.
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From page 92... ...
Benefits Calculation Method believes that reductions in the cost of producing low-emis sions electricity represent true net economic benefits that The primary task of the benefits assessment subpanel was may somehow be split between consumers and producers of to develop a method for calculating the economic benefits of electricity. The change in the price that the consumer pays the DOE Carbon Sequestration Program.
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From page 93... ...
DOE evaluates benefits using the National program. The latter cost can result from any facility that genEnergy Modeling System (NEMS)
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by DOE R&D. In this simplified model, the focus was on the with less than a 10 percent increase in the cost of energy total cost (including capital charges)
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. of success of the Carbon Sequestration Program using a probability tree (or decision tree)
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From page 96... ...
1000 2.00 Supply 500 1.00 0.00 0 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 Year FIGURE G-3 Cost and amount of zero-emissions electricity for one possible path through the decision tree. It is assumed in this illustration that 33 percent of DOE's target cost reductions will be achieved by 2012 and 67 percent by 2017, remaining at that level through 2022.
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From page 97... ...
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION While the panel did not expect DOE's goals to be met in full, partial attainment of these goals still leads to substantial Prospective Benefits Matrix for Sequestration savings in the cost of low-emissions electricity and substantial benefits. Translating the individual panelists' assess- The expected economic benefits from the probability tree ments of cost reductions into expected benefits, one finds analysis and the simplified benefits calculation are inserted the range of expected benefits shown on the left axis of Fig- in the committee's prospective benefits matrix, as shown in ure G-5.
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From page 98... ...
are also supported, the net benefit of the sequestration program is roughly 10 times the amount invested in the pro 70 70 gram. The committee's prospective benefits matrix calls for in formation on environmental and national security benefits.
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From page 99... ...
A roadmap describing the projects and/or programs necessary to achieve the program goals should be provided and the costs of these programs should be estimated. Method The panel recommends that expert panels consider DOE This panel believes that the expert panel approach to programs at the project level and assign success probabilievaluating DOE programs, which was recommended by the ties for individual projects.
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100 PROSPECTIVE EVALUATION OF APPLIED ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AT DOE (PHASE ONE) promise between overgeneralization and overspecialization.
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From page 101... ...
Dr. Keith works near the interface between cli- has published extensively, including one textbook (An Intromate science, energy technology, and public policy.
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