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Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One) A First Look Forward (2005) / Chapter Skim
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2 From Retrospective to Prospective Evaluation
Pages 9-12

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From page 9...
... category of benefits. Even when it was impossible to quantify the ben Economic benefits and efit, as was often the case, a qualitative description of the costs benefits associated with a given cell still provided consider able useful information.
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From page 10...
... Costs: Current Funding Cycle: UNCERTAINTIES OF PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS Expected Cost to Completion: The committee's proposed methodology for the prospective evaluation of benefits builds on the above features to Global Scenario provide an analytical framework adapted to the needs of pro Reference High Oil and Carbon spective analysis. It is a more technical, but still consistent, Case Gas Prices Constrained methodology for creating the information required by the Technical Risks matrix.
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From page 11...
... spective calculations.5 Finally, running NEMS is both cum It is important to note that the columns used in the retro- bersome and very resource-intensive, which greatly limits spective study are not appropriate for prospective evalua- its utility for exploring alternative scenarios and technologition. The retrospective study employed a matrix with three cal outcomes.
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From page 12...
... At did not necessarily include the expertise in decision analysis worst, the matrix without further explanation could mislead and benefits estimation that is required to produce a panel decision makers. The concluding chapter, "Conclusions and report.
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Key Terms

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  • particular doe
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  • doe program
  • greatly limits

  • results matrix
  • performance characteristics
  • market risks
  • energy model
  • expert panels

  • alternative scenarios
  • benefits using
  • security benefits
  • evaluating benefits
  • prospective benefits

  • committee believes
  • calculating benefits
  • energy information
  • national energy
  • benefits associated

  • economic benefits
  • decision analysis
  • expert panel
  • market risk
  • running nems

  • nems calculation
  • rules established
  • technical risk
  • expected cost
  • critical assumptions


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