Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons (2005) / Chapter Skim
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6 Human and Environmental Effects
6 Human and Environmental Effects
Pages 73-98
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From page 73... ...
Most of the dose from fallout is due to external exposure to gamma radiation from radionuclides deposited on the ground, and this is the only exposure pathway considered by the computer models that the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL)
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From page 74... ...
1 in terms of a lifetime risk coefficient of 0.05 per sievert (5 × 104 per rem) , with no threshold.2 For the present study, acute radiation effects were estimated by both DTRA and LLNL; latent cancer deaths were estimated only by LLNL.
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From page 75... ...
Capitol White Building House Washington Monument Washington Monument FIGURE 6.1 Illustrative example: The area over which an individual in the open would face a 10, 50, and 90 percent chance of death or serious injury from the prompt effects of a 10 kiloton earth-penetrator weapon (EPW; left) and a 250 kiloton surface burst (right)
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From page 76... ...
76 at serious or th detonated ency. dea Ag of (right)
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From page 77... ...
SOURCE: Estimates prepared for the committee by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. 250 kiloton surface burst.
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78 in per 2004, llirems mi 14, July 1,000 on and p.m. month 100, week 1 7:00 10, 1 at 1, weapon exceeds Agency.
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From page 79... ...
79 hour D.C. per millirems Washington, in 1,000 and 2004, month week 1 100, 14, 1 10, July 1, on p.m.
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From page 80... ...
To explore in a parametric way the range of possibilities, the committee selected three notional targets: · Target A: an underground command-and-control facility in a densely populated area 3 kilometers from the center of a city with a population of about 3 million; · Target B: an underground chemical warfare facility 60 kilometers from the nearest city and 13 kilometers from a small town; and · Target C: a large, underground nuclear weapons storage facility 20 kilometers from a small town. In each case, the committee asked DTRA to estimate the mean number of casualties (deaths and serious injuries from prompt effects, and acute effects of fallout from external gamma radiation)
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From page 81... ...
SOURCE: Estimates prepared for the committee by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. FIGURE 6.7 Estimated mean number of casualties from prompt effects and acute radiation sickness and death from fallout resulting from attacks on notional targets A, B, and C using earth-penetrator weapons (EPWs)
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From page 82... ...
and (b) show the variation in the number of deaths due to acute and latent effects from fallout from a 300 kiloton EPW on Targets A and B, respectively, as a function of wind direction.
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From page 83... ...
In the case of Target A, for example, the 50 percent confidence interval for deaths due to acute effects of fallout (based solely on variability in wind direction) is 130,000 to 600,000; that is, there is a 75 percent chance of exceeding 130,000 deaths from acute effects of fallout, and a 25 percent chance of more than 600,000 deaths.
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From page 84... ...
FIGURE 6.9(b) Variation in the estimated number of fatalities due to acute and latent effects from external exposure to gamma-radiation fallout from a 300 kiloton earth-penetrator weapon at 3 meters' depth of burst on notional target B as a function of wind direction, assuming that the population is in the open.
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From page 85... ...
FIGURE 6.10(b) The probability of exceeding a given number of deaths due to acute and latent effects from external exposure to gamma-radiation fallout from a 300 kiloton earth-penetrator weapon at 3 meters' depth of burst on notional target B, assuming that the population is in the open.
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From page 86... ...
Similarly, 15,000 deaths result from attacks on Target B from the 10 kiloton EPW with the wind blowing from the southeast and the 250 kiloton surface burst with the wind blowing from the northwest. These numbers suggest that wind direction can be as important as a 25-fold difference in yield in determining civilian casualties from attacks in which fallout is the primary health hazard.16 However, Figures 6.11(a)
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From page 87... ...
FIGURE 6.11(b) The estimated number of total fatalities (deaths due to prompt effects plus acute and latent effects from fallout)
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From page 88... ...
Inhalation of Contaminated Air In addition to external exposure, individuals may also be exposed to radiation by inhalation of fallout particles, either during the passage of the cloud or subsequently owing to resuspension of deposited particles by wind, plowing, vehicle travel, or other disturbances of the surface. Based on measured external gamma-radiation exposure rates and air concentrations observed downwind of explosions at the NTS, the whole-body inhalation dose was calculated to have ranged for most organs from 1 to 20 percent of the dose that resulted from the ingestion of contaminated food.19 However, the relative dose to the organs of the gastrointestinal tract via inhalation can be much larger, up to 80 percent of the dose from ingestion.
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From page 89... ...
Substantial amounts of 131I activity are created by nuclear explosions; this radionuclide is also volatile and does not condense on particles until late, at which time it becomes associated with the surfaces of fallout particles.23 Most of the total surface activity is contained on the smaller particles, so 131I is typically transported farther. The smaller particles are also preferentially retained by vegetation,24 from which they are lost with a half-retention time of about 10 days.
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From page 90... ...
The consumption of contaminated food is unlikely to result in any acute health effects, but it could in some circumstances increase significantly the number of latent cancers that would be expected in the affected population. An accurate estimate of the number of latent cancer fatalities from this exposure pathway would require estimating the amount of contamination in milk and various other foods, the consumption of these foods by the population, the internal dose from each radionuclide to each organ, and the use of organ-specific risk coefficients.32 Exposure to Fallout at Very Great Distances The computer codes used for this study do not consider deposition at very great distances.
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From page 91... ...
Accordingly, the committee expects that a conventional attack on a facility containing radiological weapons or radioactive materials would be unlikely to produce a substantial number of civilian deaths or acute illnesses, beyond those caused directly by the conventional attack itself. The number of latent cancer deaths that might result from a dispersal of radioactive material would depend sensitively on the type and amount of material dispersed (as well as the density of nearby civilian populations and whether these populations were evacuated from the area after the
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From page 92... ...
No significant environmental disruptions would be expected to occur beyond the areas directly affected by the prompt effects from one or a few nuclear explosions and the fallout that, depending on the amount of soil entrained and the fission fraction of the weapon(s) , can persist at dangerous levels for at least a year.
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From page 93... ...
However, the BLU-118B thermobaric bomb, if detonated within the chamber, may be able to destroy the agents.43 · Nuclear weapons are capable of delivering the very large amounts of heat and radiation required to destroy large stocks of chemical and biological agents. In order for this heat and radiation to be deposited throughout the agent, the nuclear weapon must be detonated in the chamber where the agent is stored.
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From page 94... ...
In each case, releases of 1 to 10,000 kilograms of sarin and 1 gram to 10 kilograms of weaponized dry anthrax spores were considered, corresponding to releases of 0.001 to 10 percent of an inventory of 100 tons of sarin and 100 kilograms of anthrax. The average number of fatalities from prompt and acute effects of fallout resulting from attacks with nuclear EPWs with yields of 3 and 30 kilotons were also estimated.
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From page 95... ...
nuclear EPW exceeds that from an extremely large (10,000 kilogram) release of sarin, it is highly unlikely that a nuclear attack would result in smaller total collateral effects than those from a conventional attack against a facility for the storage or production of chemical agents.
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From page 96... ...
FIGURE 6.12(c) Illustrative example: Estimated mean number of fatalities from releases of sarin or anthrax 50 kilometers northwest of Washington, D.C., compared with the mean number of fatalities resulting from 3 kiloton and 30 kiloton nuclear earth-penetrator weapon (EPW)
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From page 97... ...
1990. "Additional Calculations of Radionuclide Production Following Nuclear Explosions and Pu Isotopic Ratios for Nevada Test Site Events," Health Phys., Vol.
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From page 98... ...
1997. Estimated Exposures and Thyroid Doses Received by the American People from lodine-131 Following Nevada Atmospheric Nuclear Bomb Tests: A Report from the National Cancer Institute, U.S.
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