Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances (2005) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Pages 1-8
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establish the Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews to conduct meetings with the intelligence community (IC) in order to develop study topics relating to technology warning (see Box ES-1 for the overall statement of task for this effort)
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· Provide one or two short reports during the course of the first year on subjects developed in the course of meetings and as requested by the agency and approved by the NRC. BOX ES-2 Report Statement of Task For the first report, the National Research Council Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews will: · Develop, examine and review from unclassified sources evolving technologies that will be critical to successful U.S.
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It is more difficult to identify those specific technologies that are potential "game-changers" in the hands of enemies of the United States, and even harder to envision potential innovations that may derive from the integration of multidisciplinary technologies to yield disruptive capabilities. These are the tasks levied on the technology warning community.
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The characteristics considered include increased range and/or reduced signature; enhanced guidance, navigation, and/or targeting; enhanced lethality; and other techniques that directly counter U.S. capabilities.
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Biotechnological capabilities are rapidly expanding and becoming more and more readily available to scientists throughout the world. Emerging biotechnologies that may enable functional brain imaging, covert communications, the spread of disabling infections, and sensor spoofing are likely to affect the conduct of military operations and the status of national security in the future, as highlighted in Chapter 6.
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The fact that significant advances in these technologies will be driven largely by commercial demand -- on a global scale -- versus military-specific investment suggests the need for the technology warning community to establish a sustained relationship with the nongovernmental scientific and technical community in order to bolster its understanding and anticipation of technology trends. Recommendation 1: The Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Warning Division, together with the related intelligence community components that focus on technology warning, should establish an ongoing collaborative relationship with the scientific and technical communities in the industrial and academic sectors.
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Some lists focus on potential "disruptive" technologies that could have catastrophic consequences in the hands of adversaries, while others focus on technologies with significant commercial potential that may erode this nation's technological edge. The committee believes that the technology warning community would benefit from a disciplined approach to the identification and prioritization of the evolving technologies that may threaten U.S.
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2000. Joint Vision 2020.
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