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Reopening Public Facilities After a Biological Attack A Decision Making Framework (2005) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix E: Were the 2001 Anthrax Exposures Consistent with Dose-Response: The Case of the AMI Building
Pages 199-203

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From page 199...
... From the information available, it appears that exposure occurred when an envelope containing Bacillus anthracis spores was opened in the mailroom of the building. The duration of exposure is not known, but is assumed to have been one, 8-hour working shift.
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From page 200...
... ) =0.9999992 This computation suggests that all individuals so exposed should have contracted inhalation anthrax.
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From page 201...
... Another approach would be to posit distributions for each of the key inputs. There are few exact data on which to ground these distributions, and hence the subsequent calculation should be considered illustrative, but it should serve to motivate a better estimate of the input assumptions and their distributions.
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From page 202...
... would enable one to determine how unusually low the observed number of cases might have been. As part of the Monte Carlo run, a sensitivity analysis can be conducted in which the correlation between each of the inputs (considered separately)
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From page 203...
... . Hence, it would be useful to develop a better understanding of the dose response relationships for potential bioterrorist agents, and their associated uncertainties and variabilities.
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Key Terms

  • monte carlo
  • ami building
  • anthrax spores
  • release occurred
  • ventilation rate

  • ami spore
  • exact data
  • building relative
  • shown diagrammatically
  • assessment approach

  • quantitative microbial
  • envelope containing
  • occurred vroom
  • instantaneous initial
  • sensitivity analysis

  • computation suggests
  • bacillus anthracis
  • inhalation volume
  • response parameter
  • infectivity trials

  • exposure occurred
  • spore preparation
  • initial concentration
  • considered separately
  • carlo run

  • associated uncertainties
  • plausibly supported
  • anthracis spores
  • dose response
  • apparent potency


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