Rising Above the Gathering Storm Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future (2007) / Chapter Skim
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2 Why Are Science and Technology Critical to America's Prosperity in the 21st Century?
2 Why Are Science and Technology Critical to America's Prosperity in the 21st Century?
Pages 41-67
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From page 41... ...
The products of the scientific, engineering, and health communities are, in fact, easily visible -- the work-saving conveniences in our homes; medical help summoned in emergencies; the vast infrastructure of electric power, communication, sanitation, transportation, and safe drinking water we take for granted.3 To many of us, that universe of products and 1Another point of view is provided in Box 2-1.
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From page 42... ...
At the beginning of the 20th century, 38% of the labor force was needed for farm work, which was hard and often dangerous. By 2000, research in plant and animal genetics, nutrition, and husbandry together with innovation in machinery had transformed farm life.
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ENSURING ECONOMIC WELL-BEING Knowledge acquired and applied by scientists and engineers provides the tools and systems that characterize modern culture and the raw materials
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44 RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING STORM BOX 2-2 Twenty Great Engineering Achievements of the 20th Century Electricity: steam turbine generators; long-distance, high-voltage trans mission lines; pulverized coal; large-scale electric grids Automotive: machine tools, assembly line, self-starting ignition, balloon tire, safety-glass windshield, electronic fuel injection and ignition, airbags, antilock brakes, fuel cells Aeronautics: aerodynamic wing and fuselage design, metal alloys and composite materials, stressed-skin construction, jet propulsion, fly-by wire control systems, collision warning systems, Doppler weather radar Water supply and distribution: chlorination, wastewater treatment, dams, reservoirs, storage tanks, tunnel-boring equipment, computerized contaminant detection, desalination, large-scale distillation, portable ul traviolet devices Electronics: triodes, semiconductors, transistors, molecular-beam epi taxy, integrated circuits, digital-to-optical recording (CD-ROM) , micropro cessors, ceramic chip carriers Radio and television: alternators, triodes, cathode-ray tubes, super het erodyne circuits, AM/FM, videocassette recorders, flat-screen technol ogy, cable and high-definition television, telecommunication satellites Agriculture: tractors, power takeoff, rubber tires, diesel engines, com bine, corn-head attachments, hay balers, spindle pickers, self-propelled irrigation systems, conservation tillage, global-positioning technology Computers: electromechanical relays; Boolean operations; stored pro grams; programming languages; magnetic tape; software, supercom puters, minicomputers, and personal computers; operating systems; the mouse; the Internet Telephony: automated switchboards, dial calling, touch-tone, loading coils, signal amplifiers, frequency multiplexing, coaxial cables, microwave signal transmission, switching technology, digital systems, optical-fiber signal transmission, cordless telephones, cellular telephones, voice-over Internet protocols Air conditioning and refrigeration: humidity-control technology, refrig erant technology, centrifugal compressors, automatic temperature con trol, frost-free cooling, roof-mounted cooling devices, flash-freezing Highways: concrete, tar, road location, grading, drainage, soil science, signage, traffic control, traffic lights, bridges, crash barriers Aerospace: rockets, guidance systems, space docking, lightweight ma terials for vehicles and spacesuits, solar power cells, rechargeable bat teries, satellites, freeze-dried food, Velcro Internet: packet-switching, ARPANET, e-mail, networking services, transparent peering of networks, standard communication protocols, TCP/IP, World Wide Web, hypertext, web browsers
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From page 45... ...
for economic growth and well-being. The knowledge density of modern economies has steadily increased, and the ability of a society to produce, select, adapt, and commercialize knowledge is critical for sustained economic growth and improved quality of life.5,6 Robert Solow demonstrated that pro 5L.
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From page 46... ...
, or the acquisition and application of knowledge -- are crucial.8 The earlier national commitment to make a substantial public investment in R&D was based partly on that assertion (Figure 2-3)
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,9 and slightly higher rates of return for pharmaceutical products in particular (30%) .10 Modern agriculture continues to respond, and the average return on investment for public funding of agricultural research for member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
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The report notes that "the growth of economies throughout the world since the industrial revolution began has been driven by continual technological innovation through the pursuit of scientific understanding and application of engineering solutions." P
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Those "social rates of return"16 on investments in R&D are reported to range from 20 to 100%, with an average of nearly 50%.17 As a single example, in recent years, graduates from one US university have founded 4,000 companies, created 1.1 million jobs worldwide, and generated annual sales of $232 billion.18 Although return-on-investment data vary from study to study, most economists agree that federal investment in research pays substantial economic dividends. For example, Table 2-3 shows the large number of jobs and revenues created by information-technology manufacturing and services -- an industry that did not exist until the recent past.
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From page 50... ...
described as "fuel for industry."19 The economic contribution of science and technology can be understood by examining revenue and employment figures from technology- and service-based industries, but the largest economic influence is in the productivity gains that follow the adoption of new products and technologies.20 CREATING NEW INDUSTRIES The power of research is demonstrated not only by single innovations but by the ability to create entire new industries -- some of them the nation's most powerful economic drivers. Basic research on the molecular mechanisms of DNA has produced a new field, molecular biology, and recombinant-DNA technology, or gene splicing, which in turn has led to new health therapies and the enormous growth of the biotechnology industry.
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Enormous economic gains can be traced to research in harnessing electricity, which grew out of basic research (such as that conducted by Michael Faraday and James Maxwell) and applied research (such as that by Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse)
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1,000 10,000 Price per Megabyte of Random Access Memory Price of a Megabyte 1,000 100 100 (log scale) 10 10 1 1 Microprocessor Speed 0 0 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 FIGURE 2-5 Megabyte prices and microprocessor speeds, 1976-2000.
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Life expectancy has increased, particularly in the last century.
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Life expectancy has increased in the United States, particularly in the last century. SOURCE: Center for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistic System.
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, National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Program, Cancer Statistics Branch, released April 2005, based on the November 2004 submission. Deaths per 100,000 Population 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 FIGURE 2-8B Heart disease mortality, 1950-2002.
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SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics: National Vital Statistics Reports (53) 5:Table 11.
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Waterborne diseases -- cholera, typhoid fever, dysentery, and diarrhea -- were rampant and among the leading causes of death in the United States. Research and engineering for modern sewage treatment and consequent improvements in water quality have dramatically affected public and environmental health.
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US air quality has improved despite increases in gross domestic product, vehicle miles traveled, and energy consumption since the 1970s. SOURCE: US Environmental Protection Agency.
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Urban sprawl, desertification, and over-fertilization have reduced the amount of arable land by 20%.31 Such improvements as conservation tillage, which includes the use of sweep plows to undercut wheat stalks but leave roots in place, have greatly reduced soil erosion caused by traditional plowing and have promoted the conservation of soil moisture and nutrients. Advances in agricultural biotechnology have further reduced soil erosion and water contamination because they have reduced the need for tilling and for use of pesticides.
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The dramatic increase in telephone calls per capita over the following decades was made possible by advances in cable bundling, fiber optics, touch-tone dialing, and cordless communication (Figure 2-13)
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"The Greatest Century That Ever Was: 25 Miraculous Trends of the Past 100 Years." Policy Analysis No. 364, December 15, 1999.
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600 500 400 300 200 100 0 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 FIGURE 2-12B Air travel, United States, 1928-2002. SOURCE: US Census Bureau.
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From page 63... ...
"The Greatest Century That Ever Was: 25 Miraculous Trends of the Past 100 Years." Policy Analysis No. 364, December 15, 1999.
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From page 64... ...
A US Geological Survey radio system increases safety for cleanup crews during aftershocks. After Loma Prieta, workers in Oakland were given almost a half hour notice of aftershocks 50 miles away, thanks to the speed differential between radio and seismic waves.34 Weather prediction, enabled by satellites and advances in imaging technology, has helped mitigate losses from hurricanes.
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UNDERSTANDING HOW PEOPLE LEARN Today, an extraordinary scientific effort is being devoted to the mind and the brain, the processes of thinking and learning, the neural processes that occur during thought and learning, and the development of competence. The 35National Energy Policy Development Group.
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Throughout the Cold War the United States relied on a technological edge to offset the larger forces of its adversaries and thus generously supported basic research. The US military continues to depend on new and emerging technologies to respond to the diffuse and uncertain threats that characterize the 21st century and to provide the men and women in uniform with the best possible equipment and support.37 Just as Vannevar Bush described a tight linkage between research and security,38 the Hart–Rudman Commission a half-century later argued that security can be achieved only by funding more basic research in a variety of fields.39 In the wake of the 9/11 attacks and the anthrax mailings, it is clear that innovation capacity and homeland security are also tightly coupled.
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Human capacity is as important as research funding. As part of its comprehensive overview of how science and technology could contribute to countering terrorism, for example, the National Research Council recommended a human-resources development program similar to the postSputnik National Defense Education Act (NDEA)
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