A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Exploration of Space A Review of NASA's Bioastronautics Roadmap (2006) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
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is "the framework used to identify and assess the risks of crew exposure to the hazardous environments of space." The BR was created to facilitate and support the successful accomplishment of the three Design Reference Missions: a one-year mission to the International Space Station, a month-long stay on the lunar surface, and a 30-month round-trip journey to Mars. The contents of the document are the identified risks, the research and technology questions associated with these risks, and the desired outcomes.
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group behavioral health risks into categories based on clini cal outcomes and address issues of human sexuality in long-duration missions; (3) use actuarial data to estimate the likelihood of intrinsic health alterations as part of the selection criteria for the Mars mission crew; and (4)
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Both the baseline document and the interactive version that relates to specific risks and Design Reference Missions are available on-line at http://bioastroroadmap.nasa.gov. CHARGE TO THE COMMITTEE In 2003, prior to the unveiling of the President's space exploration vision, NASA asked the Institute of Medicine (IOM)
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4. Are the categories of critical research issues and the metrics used to analyze them appropriate (risk assessment and characterization, mechanistic/process research, countermeasure development, and medical diagnosis and treatment)
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PRINCIPAL FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The committee concludes that all of its recommendations should be implemented in order to achieve the goals of the BR. However, the committee is convinced that the following four principal recommendations must be applied if the BR is to be an effective approach to risk identification and risk reduction associated with the Design Reference Missions.
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Current resources are unlikely to be sufficient to complete the BR mitigation plan in a time frame that enables the exploration class missions envisioned by NASA. Recommendation 2.3 -- Accelerate Countermeasure and Technol ogy Development The committee recommends that NASA initiate an aggressive program, including the use of animal models, analog environ ments, and space flight, to significantly accelerate the progress of all Countermeasure Readiness Levels and Technology Readi ness Levels that are essential to support the proposed explora tion agenda.
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The committee also believes that disaggregation of risk from mitigation of risk is important because (1) aggregated risk values obscure the risk itself and can lead to false confidence or concern, depending on the status of countermeasure or technology development; (2)
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structure the BR to repre sent separately the severity and likelihood of each risk and the state of the mitigation strategy or countermeasures associated with each risk; and (3) whenever possible, restructure the BR to include a quantification of the uncertainty of risks using standard uncertainty analysis techniques (e.g., frequentist, Bayesian, or possibility theory and approximate reasoning)
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The Time Factor and Its Impact on Risk Recommendation 2.1 -- Label Risks by Relevance to Operational Requirements and Temporal Urgency The committee recommends that risk assessment and mitiga tion (technology or countermeasure development) in the BR be enhanced by labeling risks according to their relevance to operational requirements and to temporal urgency.
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Further, the committee recommends that the impact of inad equate food and nutrition on processes related to mental and physical health risks and maintenance of the space environ ment and life support systems be defined from the standpoints of food safety, quality, and quantity, and interventions pro posed if problems occur. SPECIFIC ISSUES Specific issues are those areas that deserve focused attention and refinement in the BR to more effectively accomplish its goals as a management
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Recommendations Related to Specific Issues in the BR Content Recommendation 2.6 -- Validate Current and Future Crew Selec tion Criteria The committee recommends that the Astronaut Office and rep resentative flight surgeons be consulted regarding the crew se lection process in order to place greater emphasis on the roles of crew compatibility and team performance in overall mis sion success. Recommendations 2.7 and 2.8 -- Group Behavioral Health Risks into Categories Based on Clinical Outcomes, and Address Issues of Human Sexuality in Long-Duration Missions The committee recommends that behavioral health risks within the proposed new cross-cutting category of Human Sys tems Integration be grouped into categories based on clinical outcomes such as interpersonal conflict, affect regulation, dec rements in cognitive performance, mood disorders, and sleep disorders, rather than categories such as psychosocial, neurobehavioral, cognitive, and circadian rhythms, and that the interrelations between these categories be delineated clearly.
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, analogous to the Independent Technical Authority, and recommends that the IHMA be given responsibility, au thority, and accountability for the health and safety decisions that relate to risks identified in the BR. Recommendations Related to Specific Issues in the BR Context Recommendation 4.1 -- Add New Risk: Human Performance Fail ure Due to Organizational and Cultural Factors The committee recommends that an additional risk labeled "human performance failure due to organizational and cul tural factors" be added to the BR.
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Recommendation 4.3 -- Use Bayesian Sequential Trials Approach and Hierarchical Random or Fixed Effects Methods to Address the Small Sample Size Drawing on the findings of the Institute of Medicine report Small Clinical Trials: Issues and Challenges (IOM, 2001) , the committee recommends the use of pooled data from Bayesian sequential trials techniques and hierarchical random or fixed effects methods to compensate for the small sample sizes asso ciated with individual flights.
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Box ES-1 contains a summary of the report's recommendations. BOX ES-1 SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS Principal Recommendations 2.3 Accelerate Countermeasure and Technology Development 2.9 Establish a Safe Radiation Exposure Level for All Relevant Risks 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 Incorporate Quality-of-Evidence Measures, Repre sent Risk Severity Separately from the State of the Mitigation Strat egy or Countermeasure, and Use Standard Uncertainty Analysis Techniques to Quantify Risk Uncertainty 3.4, 3.5 Ensure That the BR Is a Dynamic and Current Database That Enhances Communication and Conveys Information Effectively Recommendations on Overarching Issues in the BR Content 2.1 Label Risks by Relevance to Operational Requirements and Temporal Urgency 2.2 Define, Quantify, and Mitigate Interactions Among Risks 2.4, 2.5 Create Two New Cross-Cutting Categories: Human Sys tems Integration and Food and Nutrition
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2005. Bioastronautics Roadmap- a risk reduction strategy for human space exploration.
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