Review of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Studies (2006) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 1-12
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to provide an independent scientific review of selected LOSLR studies, reports, and models. The NRC and RSC agreed to review the LOSLR Study materials in terms of their appropriateness and sufficiency to inform decisions related to regulation plan options.
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the models sufficiently and appropriately integrate and display the key information needed for a comprehensive evaluation and understanding of the tradeoffs for selecting among the candidate regulation plans; and (C) the models and reports are sufficient and appropriate to evaluate the various candidate regulation plans and impacts of changes in water levels and flows.
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whether the models and reports are appropriate and sufficient for evaluating regulation plans and the effects of water level changes. In fulfilling the charge, the committee evaluated the selected review documents for their appropriateness and sufficiency.
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These criteria are common to the scientific and practical professional disciplines involved in evaluating complex studies, such as the water level and flow effects of regulation plan options in the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system.
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Lawrence River Basin in ways that are useful for informing some aspects of decision making. The LOSLR studies undertook a broad set of studies and developed models that extend beyond previous Great Lakes water regulation efforts in compiling results of scientific analysis and stakeholder input, and they result in some notable successes.
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In the SVM research, regression equations rather than hydrodynamic models were used to calculate water levels and flows when the latter approach presumably would have been empirically feasible and more accurate. In the FEPS research, regression analysis problems concerned the variable quality of the empirical data used in the regression analyses and the 4th and 5th order polynomials that may be numerically unstable and misrepresent the potential effects of extreme events.
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Linkages among LOSLR studies and models inherently propagate uncertainties, but SVM documentation does not analyze those cumulative uncertainties or discuss their implications for informing decision making. Without formal analysis and discussion, it is not possible to assess the types or magnitudes of error and uncertainty for particular water regulation plans, or to know whether differences between plans are significant.
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The reviewed studies and models make progress toward comparing the effects of regulation plan options, but the comparisons do not provide a comprehensive basis for evaluating and understanding tradeoffs among regulation plan options. Recommendation: In the short-term, the LOSLR final reports should inform decision makers of what has, and has not yet, been accomplished in the way of integrated water and environmental systems modeling.
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Documentation of the SVM should have a more complete discussion of its role in the Shared Vision planning process; describe SVM development and refinement, including standard technical documentation of all component models; and describe how scientific and stakeholder criteria were used interactively to formulate, screen, and evaluate the range of choice among regulation plan options. Recommendation: In the short-term, LOSLR final reports should include a thorough documentation of studies and models, especially the Shared Vision Model, and seek further independent scientific review of those reports.
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In the future, however, regulation plan decisions will also require comparable scenario development and evaluation for other environmental and social processes. Changes in regional economic structure, demography, water demand, transportation technology, coastal land use, and socioeconomic values will likely transform the profile of stakeholder interests, performance indicators, and socioeconomic impacts associated with water level regulation.
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Lawrence River System will be adaptable...;" and "...regulation plans will incorporate...flexibility to adapt...." An adaptive management program could help the basin constituents build upon the LOSLR studies and models over time. Before an adaptive management program is designed, the deficiencies noted in LOSLR models and studies need to be corrected to avoid perpetuating existing problems.
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From page 12... ...
In the longer term, the IJC should, in collaboration with other scientific and stakeholder organizations in the basin, develop an adaptive management program that would provide a continuing scientific basis for monitoring the effects of water regulation, experimenting with alternatives, and thereby improving decisions about future regulation plan options.
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