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5 Toward Adaptive Managment
Pages 118-130

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From page 118...
... The conclusions look back at what has, and has not, been accomplished; while the recommendations look forward toward continuing scientific approaches needed to address the identified gaps, deficiencies, and water level and flow regulation challenges. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE The historical context of the LOSLR studies and models includes a halfcentury of experience with water regulation plans and their effects (Clinton Edmonds and Associates, 2002)
From page 119...
... To the extent that the Shared Vision Model incorporates results from these other fields, this review offers a partial perspective on the overall sufficiency of LOSLR studies and models. · The review occurs toward the end of the 5-year LOSLR Study.
From page 120...
... LOSLR studies and models expand interdisciplinary scientific inquiry on the potential environmental effects of water level and flow regulation options in the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Basin in ways that are useful for informing decision making in some respects.
From page 121...
... Its iterative public participation process begins to treat water level and flow regulation as an adaptive process. Identification and inclusion of environmental performance indicators is a major contribution.
From page 122...
... Linkages among LOSLR studies and models lead inherently to the propagation of uncertainties, but SVM documentation does not analyze those cumulative uncertainties or discuss their implications for informing decision making. Without formal analysis and discussion, it is not possible to assess the types or magnitudes of error and uncertainty for particular water regulation plans, or to know whether differences between plans are significant.
From page 123...
... on performance indicators, and it is thus an impact accounting model rather than an ecosystem model. In terms of model linkages, the FEPS model alters the bathymetry of shoreline environments, but those bathymetric changes were not fed into the IERM to alter the extent or depth of wetland inundation, which could in turn affect the vegetation, shoreline habitats, and other environmental performance indicators associated with water level variation.
From page 124...
... Lawrence River that operated on fine enough time scales to supplement the quarter-monthly time step generated by the SVM. As noted earlier, the LOSLR approach of using quarter-monthly values in Lake Ontario to calculate water levels for selected stations in the upper St.
From page 125...
... 4. Despite the breadth of LOSLR studies and models, ongoing analysis is needed to provide a strong scientific basis for long-term decision making about water level and flow regulation in the Lake Ontario-St.
From page 126...
... The LOSLR Study may begin a new approach to water level and flow regulation in the Great Lakes. Even when deficiencies are corrected, there will be an inherent need for continuing scientific study and modeling of the actual effects of present RPO decisions, as well as the possible effects of future RPO adjustments.
From page 127...
... The Shared Vision approach involves an adaptive process. While SVM documentation does not elaborate its links with the larger field of Adaptive Management, the remainder of this section briefly indicates how Adaptive Management might be used to inform future water level and flow regulation.
From page 128...
... The LOSLR Shared Vision process prepares the way for these components of adaptive management through its studies, model development, performance indicators, supporting qualitative inquiry, technical work groups, and stakeholder processes. Flaws in LOSLR models and studies need to be corrected or alternative models adopted prior to the establishment of an adaptive management program to avoid perpetuating existing problems.
From page 129...
... Lawrence River Changes in the Institutional Structure and Their Impact on Water Levels, 1950-2001. Report to International Lake Ontario-St.
From page 130...
... SAR 3A. Impact of Water Level Regulation on Nearshore Habitat Availability and SAR.


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