The Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries Selected Studies (2005) / Chapter Skim
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5 Trends in the Timing of First Marriage Among Men and Women in the Developing World--Barbara S. Mensch, Susheela Singh, and John B. Casterline
5 Trends in the Timing of First Marriage Among Men and Women in the Developing World--Barbara S. Mensch, Susheela Singh, and John B. Casterline
Pages 118-171
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From page 118... ...
118) asserts that we should care about marriage patterns "in their own right" because understanding "nuptiality change could further the understanding of other social change." Indeed, for those interested in family formation, the timing of first union merits investigation not only because it signals the initiation of reproductive life, but also because the marriage process reflects the way family life is organized and functions in a particular culture and because when, who, and how one marries all have implications for gender relations within society (Malhotra, 1997)
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From page 119... ...
Malhotra and Tsui's (1996) study of the effect of norms about marriage -- including the importance of setting up an independent household, the desire to work before marriage, and expectations about arranged marriage -- on marriage timing in Sri Lanka is also an important contribution to the literature.
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From page 120... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE causal links between early marriage and poor outcomes among women.
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From page 121... ...
For example, an analysis of data from an agricultural region of northcentral Italy in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries revealed that women married quite late, on average around 24 to 25, despite the fact that multiple-family households were common and patrilocal residence was the norm. Moreover, marriage age did not decline throughout "a period of dramatic social and economic changes," when wage labor supplanted sharecropping (Kertzer and Hogan, 1991, p.
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From page 122... ...
. These demographic studies of historical Europe are useful for those investigating marriage in the developing world if only to emphasize that nuptiality trends defy easy explanation; while age at marriage is likely to be sensitive to the economic environment, the roots of particular marriage patterns would appear to lie in the distinctiveness of individual family systems.2 Social Anthropology For social anthropologists, kinship systems -- which include marriage rules and residential arrangements -- have traditionally been a focal, if not the focal subject of ethnographic inquiry.
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From page 123... ...
Data were also collected on mothers' characteristics, including the inheritance at marriage and whether Nepali is spoken as well as the local language, all measures that reflect social status. Family context, namely "access to kin and marriage partner networks, intergenerational control and the prestige of natal groups," is found to be significant in explaining marriage timing (Dahal, Fricker, and Thornton, 1993, p.
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From page 124... ...
, collected extensive data on the marriage process. However, these surveys have limited utility for analyses of marriage timing because of a restriction to those who are married.
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From page 125... ...
However, no explanation is given for the continued significance of ethnicity in models of marriage timing. With the exception of Becker's work, we have few theories that explicitly address age at marriage, even fewer studies that economists would consider acceptable in addressing the endogeneity problems that arise in studies of the determinants of marriage timing, and still fewer studies that collect the appropriate data to adequately explain when people marry.
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From page 126... ...
Coverage varies considerably by region. These data represent approximately 90 percent or more of the population in East and Southern Africa, South Central and Southeast Asia, East Asia, South America and the Caribbean, and Central America, but only 63 percent of the population in the Middle East, 31 percent in West and Middle Africa, and 38 percent in the former Soviet Asia.
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From page 127... ...
By comparison, the DHS data on marital status and age at marriage are obtained by personal interviews with the individual respondents themselves with the exception of unmarried women in some Asian and Middle Eastern countries, as mentioned above. As noted earlier, in this chapter we apply the broad definition of marriage generally used by cross-country comparative studies, that is, marriage is defined to include all of the different forms of socially recognized unions: cohabitation, consensual unions, "free unions," and marriage that is legiti 9As we indicated, the analyses based on UN data only include countries where data for both men and women are available.
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From page 128... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE TABLE 5-1 Country Lists by Region United Nations Database on Marriage Census/Survey Census/Survey Country Regiona Year 1 Year 2 Belize Carib/CA 1980 1991 Dominican Republic Carib/CA 1981 1996 El Salvador Carib/CA 1971 1992 Guatemala Carib/CA 1973 1990 Haiti Carib/CA 1989 2000 Mexico Carib/CA 1980 1990 Nicaragua Carib/CA 1971 1998 Panama Carib/CA 1980 1990 Puerto Rico Carib/CA 1980 1990 Trinidad and Tobago Carib/CA 1980 1990 Botswana E/S Africa 1981 1991 Burundi E/S Africa 1979 1990 Comoros E/S Africa 1980 1996 Ethiopia E/S Africa 1984 2000 Kenya E/S Africa 1969 1998 Malawi E/S Africa 1987 2000 Mauritius E/S Africa 1972 1990 Mozambique E/S Africa 1980 1997 Namibia E/S Africa 1960 1991 Rwanda E/S Africa 1978 1996 South Africa E/S Africa 1985 1996 Tanzania E/S Africa 1978 1996 Uganda E/S Africa 1969 1995 Zambia E/S Africa 1980 1999 Zimbabwe E/S Africa 1982 1999 China EA 1987 1999 Bahrain ME 1981 1991 Egypt ME 1986 1996 Jordan ME 1979 1994 Morocco ME 1982 1994 Occup.
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From page 129... ...
Central African Republic W/M Africa 1994-1995 * Chad W/M Africa 1996-1997 *
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From page 130... ...
; SC/SE Asia (South-central and South-eastern Asia) ; Soviet (Former Soviet Asia)
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From page 131... ...
NOTE: Middle East, South-central, and South-eastern Asia are excluded from Figure 5-2 and Table 5-9 because the surveys are based on ever-married samples.
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From page 132... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE mated by custom, religious rites, or civil law.
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From page 133... ...
for men and women, and has some representation of all developing regions. The second measure, the percentage married by specific ages, is based for women on 51 DHS countries with representation from 7 of the 8 developing regions and is based for men on 29 DHS countries with representation from only Latin America and the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa.
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From page 134... ...
In the Middle East and the former Soviet Asia, there is evidence of increasing delay recently. In summary, Tables 5-2 and 5-3 reveal declines in the proportion married for both sexes in most regions; the exceptions are South America for men and women, and for men only, West and Middle Africa and South and Southeast Asia.
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From page 135... ...
The Middle East, South America, and the former Soviet Asia have smaller proportions of women who marry early. Second, a comparison of the percentage married across age groups indicates that there has been little change in South America, the Caribbean and Central America, and the former Soviet Asia.
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From page 136... ...
Ages 15-19 % of Region Population Time 1c Time 2 Annual Region Represented 1970-1989 1990-2000 Change Africa Eastern/Southern Africa 89.8 37.5 24.5 .75 Western/Middle Africa 30.8 53.0 38.4 .89 Asia Eastern Asiad 98.1 4.2 1.3 .24 South-central/South-eastern 93.3 39.6 32.3 .64 Asia Former Soviete Asia 37.8 9.4 9.6 .02 Latin America and Caribbean Caribbean/Central America 87.5 20.6 18.1 .27 South Americaf 99.9 14.4 16.3 .12 Middle Eastg Western Asia/Northern 62.8 21.0 14.9 .59 Africa TOTAL 86.5 26.6 20.8 .48 aRegional groupings based on United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003)
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From page 137... ...
Indeed, as Table 5-4 indicates, for the countries where DHS data are available, more than a third of women currently ages 20 to 24 married prior to age 18. Trends in Percentage of Men in sub-Saharan Africa Married by Ages 20, 25, and 30: DHS Analysis Recently, Demographic and Health Surveys have been conducted among men in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the former Soviet Asia.
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From page 138... ...
. Division Men first Asia of the groupings Uganda Africa nonstandard Population and in America regional Africa Caribbean Africa countries, data of Nations Asia (1967)
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From page 139... ...
% Population Represented 91.7 75.2 86.0 68.4 21.0 74.1 54.8 59.8 unavailable Women countries, groupings of 51 Africa women a Caribbean on America regional Africa the Africa of data Percentage Asia tabulations, and source 5-4 Soviet Asia/Northern DHS America East excluded; For America Eastern/Southern Western/Middle South-central/South-eastern Asia Former Caribbean/Central South Western TABLE Averages) Region Africa Asia Latin Middle TOTAL Gabon a NOTE: SOURCE:
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From page 140... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE regional averages.15 Table 5-5 provides these data for ages 20, 25, and 30 by age group for 29 countries with surveys between 1994 and 2001; 9 East and Southern African countries, 14 West and Middle African countries, 3 South American countries, and 3 Caribbean and Central American countries.
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From page 141... ...
30, averages, of and 30-34 20.0 16.2 20.4 18.2 18.1 list for 25, weighted 5-1 20, 20 for Age 20-24 13.8 12.0 22.2 14.0 13.5 Table data Ages See by population Region of and 1994-2001. Married, % Population Represented 69.5 75.5 13.7 60.3 60.5 Men countries, groupings of 29 Caribbean America regional Africa the Africa of Percentage tabulations, and source 5-5 DHS America For America Eastern/Southern Western/Middle Caribbean/Central South TABLE Averages)
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From page 142... ...
% of Region Years of Schooling Population Region Represented 0-3 4-7 8+ Africa Eastern/Southern Africa 91.7 51.2 38.6 12.6 Western/Middle Africab 75.2 70.5 36.8 14.1 Asia South-central/South-eastern Asiac 28.0 55.7 44.0 17.3 Latin America and the Caribbean Caribbean/Central America 21.0 55.5 43.9 14.7 South America 74.1 41.7 30.3 10.8 Middle East Western Asia/Northern Africad 49.6 38.9 25.6 6.4 TOTAL 34.4 53.2 37.6 13.5 aFormer Soviet Asia excluded; too few women with less than 8+ years of schooling. bGabon excluded; data on women unavailable at time of this analysis.
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From page 143... ...
NOTE: For source of regional groupings and population data for weighted averages, see Table 5-2. SOURCE: DHS tabulations, 29 countries, 1994-2001.
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From page 144... ...
Explaining Trends Among Women The Rise in Educational Attainment To what can we attribute the rise in age of first marriage among women? Increased schooling is a leading candidate: In all regions of the developing world, save for the countries of the former Soviet Asia, there has been an increase in mean grades of schooling attained among young women in the last few decades (National Research Council and Institute of Medicine, 2005, Chapter 3)
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From page 145... ...
The methodology can be briefly described as follows: The observed proportions marrying prior to age 18 can be designated O1 and O2, for the older and younger cohorts, respectively, and the observed change in the proportion marrying young is: O = O1 O2
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MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE To obtain the "expected change" due to changes in schooling, two regressions are estimated, one for each cohort: p(M18)
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From page 147... ...
Latin America and Caribbean 0 14 86 100 (9) Former Soviet Asia 63 0 37 100 (4)
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From page 148... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE 0 in 18 5 age by difference 10 cohort marrying 15 Expected percentage 20 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 Observed cohort difference in percentage marrying by age 18 South America Caribbean/Central America Former Soviet Asia Western/Middle Africa Eastern/Southern Africa FIGURE 5-2 Association between observed and expected change*
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From page 149... ...
This leaves two thirds of the countries where half or more of the decline in early marriage can be linked to educational increase, an impressive outcome.19 The four countries in Soviet Asia show both small and large ratios of expected to observed change. In short, increases in schooling hardly appear to be the entire story, although in subSaharan Africa there are grounds for attributing a large share of the decline in early marriage to increased schooling.
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From page 150... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE number of reasons why the effect of schooling on the timing of marriage might be somewhat weaker than discussions in policy circles imply.
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From page 151... ...
The aim would be to distinguish communities with educational systems that reinforce the status quo from communities with educational systems that challenge existing norms. Growth in Urbanization At the same time that age of marriage has risen, the percentage of the developing world population living in cities has grown.
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From page 152... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE 10 5 R = 0.07 ever 15-19 0 ages 5 percentage in women 10 15 Change married, 20 25 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Change in percentage living in urban areas South America Caribbean/Central America Former Soviet Asia Western/Middle Africa Eastern/Southern Africa South-central/South-eastern Asia Middle East FIGURE 5-3 Association between change in percentage of 15- to 19-year-old women married and change in percentage of population living in urban areas, 1960-2001.
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From page 153... ...
It also rules out some factors that might plausibly have been expected to be related to age at marriage. The Decline in Arranged Marriages Several demographers who have conducted studies of marriage timing in individual countries in Asia have attributed the increase in women's age at marriage to changes in the marriage process.
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From page 154... ...
Murdock's Ethnographic Atlas, which was initially published in the late 1960s and revised around 1980, indicates that in approximately two thirds of the 1,267 societies catalogued, bridewealth is normative whereas dowry 21We are aware of one analysis, of Sri Lankan women, where the marriage process was included as a factor in marriage timing. However, contrary to expectations, those who chose their own spouses married earlier than those who had arranged marriages, a pattern that the researchers note is unusual among Asian societies (Malhotra and Tsui, 1996)
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From page 155... ...
. To the degree that an association exists between age of marriage of women and increased schooling in India, these researchers would claim that the delay in marriage, caused by a deficit of eligible men, has been the 22A marriage squeeze is also believed to be a factor in the increase in age at marriage in Lebanon, where 16 years of civil war and male emigration because of diminished work opportunities have distorted the sex ratios at marriageable ages (Saxena and Kulczycki, 2004)
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From page 156... ...
. Yet according to DHS data, 65 percent of women ages 20 to 24 married by age 18 in Mali and 54 percent in Uganda, proportions that are among the highest in the developing world.
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From page 157... ...
. A change in the legal age of marriage may signal a change in the discourse around marriage that, ultimately, if not in the near term, is likely to lead women and their families to contemplate a change in behavior.23 The fact that laws have been modified in so many countries suggests that the increased discussion of early marriage among human rights advocates and the publicity generated by various United Nations conferences 23Of course, in some countries, the increase in the legal age at marriage may simply reflect the fact that women are delaying marriage.
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From page 158... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE have had an impact on global norms governing early marriage of women (UNICEF, 2001)
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From page 159... ...
In our case, we have data on both schooling and marriage only for 22 sub-Saharan African countries, 6 Latin American and Caribbean countries, 2 former Soviet Asia countries, and 1 Middle Eastern country where Demographic and Health Surveys have been conducted among men.26 Figure 5-4 graphs the absolute change in the percentage of men marrying at age 20 for two cohorts, those 20 to 24 and those 40 to 44 against changes in mean grades of schooling attained by these cohorts. Contrary to Hertrich's (2002)
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From page 160... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE 20 10 age 5 by 0 R = Ð0.28 married Ð5 Ð10 inpercentage Ð15 Ð20 Change Ð25 Ð30 Ð35 Ð2 Ð1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Change in mean grades attained South America Caribbean/Central America Former Soviet Asia Western/Middle Africa Eastern/Southern Africa Middle East FIGURE 5-4 Association between change in percentage of 20- to 24- and 40- to 44year-old men married by age 20 and change in grades of school attained.
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From page 161... ...
. In Nigeria, where a consid 10 R = 0.09 5 ever 0 20-24 5 ages percentage men in 10 Change married, 15 20 25 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Change in percentage living in urban areas South America Caribbean/Central America Former Soviet Asia Western/Middle Africa Eastern/Southern Africa South-central/South-eastern Asia Middle East FIGURE 5-5 Association between change in percentage of 20- to 24-year-old men married and change in percentage of population living in urban areas, 1960-2001.
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From page 162... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE erable decline has taken place in early marriage among men, the oil boom in the 1970s fueled a change in brides' expectations of what purchases grooms needed to marry (National Research Council, 1993)
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From page 163... ...
Indeed, a late age of marriage, if it arises from limited resources, may not be viewed as desirable by young men -- it may be a source of frustration, particularly where premarital sex is not condoned. Qualitative research would be valuable on the negative psychosocial effects of delaying marriage, particularly in regions, such as the Middle East, where interaction between unmarried men and women is restricted.
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From page 164... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE These findings warrant at least four caveats, however.
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From page 165... ...
Clearly more research is needed on the linkages between changing age at marriage, sexual behavior, condom use, and HIV risk among both men and women. CONCLUSIONS During the last 30 years, for most developing country regions, substantial declines have occurred in the proportion of young men and women married; the clear exceptions are South America for men and women, and, for men only, South and Southeast Asia.
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From page 166... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE comes.
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From page 167... ...
. The Ireland of Asia: Trends in marriage timing in Sri Lanka.
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From page 168... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE Gage, A.J., and Meekers, D
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From page 169... ...
. Marriage timing in Sri Lanka: The role of modern norms and ideas.
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From page 170... ...
MENSCH, SUSHEELA SINGH, AND JOHN B CASTERLINE Rashad, H., and Osman, M
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From page 171... ...
. School characteristics and marriage timing.
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