The Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries Selected Studies (2005) / Chapter Skim
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2 Changing Contexts in Which Youth Are Transitioning to Adulthood in Developing Countries: Converging Toward Developed Economies?--Jere R. Behrman and Piyali Sengupta
2 Changing Contexts in Which Youth Are Transitioning to Adulthood in Developing Countries: Converging Toward Developed Economies?--Jere R. Behrman and Piyali Sengupta
Pages 13-55
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From page 13... ...
Many researchers and other observers suggest, for example, that accelerating globalization is not only changing the world more rapidly than in earlier periods, but is making it more homogeneous, with increasing convergence of developing economies toward the developed economies, in many important dimensions.1 The purpose of this chapter is simple: To describe to what extent the contexts in which youth have been making transitions to adulthood in developing countries have been converging toward the developed economies. Some aspects of these changing contexts relate to overall economies and societies and affect many outcomes -- not only the transitions of youth to adulthood.
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From page 14... ...
Some of these geographical regions, of course, include developed as well as developing countries (particularly Europe and Central Asia but also East Asia and the Pacific) , but the data summarized for these regions in this chapter refer only to the developing countries in the region (with the developed countries in all regions included in the developed country group with which the developing country groups are compared)
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From page 15... ...
As we note below, for some of the characteristics we consider, there have been large changes in the developed country characteristics over time so that even if the developing country values have, for example, changed a lot in the direction of the developed country characteristics, they may not have changed enough for there to have been convergence. An important example, to illustrate, is per capita national product.
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From page 16... ...
For most of the variables, the figures give the ratio of the developing country group to the developed country group over time so that the horizontal line at 1.0 in the figures represents the developed country group experience. For a subset of variables, for which the developed country group has very small and varying values over time -- such as overall population growth rates on the share of total employment in agriculture -- using such values as denominators does not lead to very informative graphs.
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From page 17... ...
Population Growth, Fertility Rates, and Mortality Rates The patterns of the demographic transition, lagged to various degrees in various developing country groups behind that experienced by the developed country group, result in convergence being the dominant feature for population growth rates despite the very low and declining population growth rates for the developed economies (Figure 2-1) .8 However, this pattern is not universal, with both Europe and Central Asia and the Middle East and North Africa diverging from the (declining)
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From page 18... ...
2.3 3.7 Rural-Urban Composition Rural population growth 928.1 77.6 Rural population (% total) 59.0 28.4 Urban population growth 61.6 94.3 Urban population (% total)
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From page 19... ...
CHANGING CONTEXTS IN WHICH YOUTH ARE TRANSITIONING 19 Data Availability: Latin America and Middle East and South Sub-Saharan First and the Caribbean North Africa Asia Africa Final Years 57.3 116.4 142.9 150.8 1960/2001 0.1 12.1 54.9 93.6 1960/2001 14.8 14.6 53.4 100.8 1960/2001 42.3 116.2 97.5 35.4 1960/2001 13.0 6.5 27.4 44.3 1960/2001 12.0 35.1 49.8 66.3 1960/2001 0.2 0.3 2.3 0.8 1960/2001 0.2 0.3 2.2 0.8 1960/2001 1.4 14.3 14.1 14.5 1960/2001 6.2 1.2 5.2 8.9 1960/2001 1.5 0.2 5.0 0.5 1960/2001 1.4 0.2 4.8 0.4 1960/2001 371.4 410.0 1171.6 979.3 1965/2001 15.2 32.4 101.8 47.2 1960/2001 55.2 29.3 176.2 126.3 1960/2001 11.9 30.1 11.2 25.8 1960/2001 1.5 1.0 5.4 2.2 1960/2001 0.3 0.7 4.6 1.6 1960/2001 3.0 0.1 9.3 1.0 1960/2001 10.5 6.9 3.7 5.7 1960/2001 3.4 0.6 4.6 0.9 1965/2001a 1.0 0.5 3.1 0.9 1960/2001
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From page 20... ...
2.9 11.9 Per cap GNI (PPP) 3.6 12.5 Shares of Production in Major Sectors Value added in agriculture 141.6 193.1 Value added in industry 45.3 65.4 Value added in services 17.5 3.8 Openness to International Trade Economic openness 176.7 76.8 Exports (% GDP)
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From page 21... ...
CHANGING CONTEXTS IN WHICH YOUTH ARE TRANSITIONING 21 Data Availability: Latin America and Middle East and South Sub-Saharan First and the Caribbean North Africa Asia Africa Final Years 26.6 82.5 81.3 19.4 1965/2000 3.0 0.6 0.6 2.4 1960/2001 2.1 9.3 1.8 3.5 1975/2000 1.8 5.7 2.3 2.9 1975/2000 23.6 144.4 168.1 161.5 1960/2001a 95.1 65.4 7.6 4.3 1960/2001a 30.2 0.3 16.8 16.1 1960/2001a 37.8 795.6 12.5 301.4 1960/2001a 18.0 52.1 8.3 17.8 1960/2001a 5.1 42.9 3.0 6.2 1960/2001a 6.7 1.0 34.5 3.4 1970/2001 3.9 4.0 0.3 0.6 1990/2000 63.5 50.2 37.2 42.8 1990/2000 11.0 14.9 14.3 35.9 1960/2000 4.1 0.2 3.1 6.4 1970/2001 47.7 20.9 22.2 4.1 1980/2001 67.2 14.0 10.8 88.0 1970/2001
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From page 22... ...
Unemployment Rates, Gender, and Youth Unemployment (% total labor force) 93.3 12.5 Female unemployment (% female labor force)
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From page 23... ...
CHANGING CONTEXTS IN WHICH YOUTH ARE TRANSITIONING 23 Data Availability: Latin America and Middle East and South Sub-Saharan First and the Caribbean North Africa Asia Africa Final Years 1.2 5.1 70.7 97.4 1960/1999 0.3 1.9 35.6 55.2 1960/2001 4.1 3.6 7.2 7.5 1960/1999 11656.9 5028.7 49079.6 61165.0 1960/2001 124.6 274.0 203.2 456.3 1980/2000 13.2 70.1 30.8 37.1 1980/2000a 2.2 16.0 22.8 52.3 1980/2000 101.2 913.9 304.0 477.9 1980/2000b 7.6 22.8 78.3 401.2 1980/2000 48.3 67.5 110.1 40.3 1980/2000 7.1 1.0 18.3 23.7 1980/2000 12.0 17.3 36.4 62.2 1980/2000 3.2 8.8 32.2 54.3 1980/2000 127.1 23.3 232.4 196.7 1980/2000c 15.1 111.0 91.5 8.3 1980/2000d 40.9 109.5 1.1 4.8 1980/2000d 58.7 10.5 392.7 4857.0 1980/2000e 145.8 41.6 36.6 400.8 1980/2000e 106.4 103.4 6.4 420.4 1980/2000e dEarliest year available for ECA: 1985; for SA: 1990; Latest year available for MENA, SA, and SSA: 1999. eEarliest year available for ECA, MENA, and SSA: 1990; for SA: 1985; Latest year available for MENA and SA: 1995.
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From page 24... ...
14.8 6.3 Life expectancy (male-female) 14.4 33.9 Female mortality 45.6 82.0 Male mortality 33.2 94.0 Male-female mortality 25.8 100.4 Infant mortality 414.4 339.1 Under 5 years mortality 332.3 291.9 Health Determinants Health expenditure per capita 1.7 0.6 Public expenditure on health 55.7 63.4 Incidence of DPT vaccination 13.8 16.2 Incidence of measles vaccination 58.6 17.9 Physicians per 1,000 people 1.8 52.7 Hospital beds per 1,000 people 7.0 0.3 aLatest year available for SA: 2000.
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From page 25... ...
CHANGING CONTEXTS IN WHICH YOUTH ARE TRANSITIONING 25 Data Availability: Latin America and Middle East and South Sub-Saharan First and the Caribbean North Africa Asia Africa Final Years 7.2 16.9 15.0 3.5 1960/2001 7.9 16.9 16.5 2.7 1960/2001 6.4 16.9 13.3 4.4 1960/2001 28.8 16.3 59.3 20.8 1960/2001 11.6 5.2 35.9 288.9 1960/2001a 16.3 9.0 19.1 130.6 1960/2001a 40.1 1.4 82.3 12.3 1960/2001a 234.9 289.7 860.4 1284.1 1960/2001 165.9 163.4 820.6 1446.3 1960/2001 3.9 4.0 0.3 0.6 1990/2000 63.5 50.2 37.2 42.8 1990/2000 37.0 55.8 64.3 7.8 1980/2001 41.6 59.9 63.0 20.0 1980/2001 9.6 5.0 7.5 0.2 1960/2000b 34.3 18.0 8.4 24.4 1960/2000c
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From page 26... ...
31.5 5.4 Gross primary enrollment (male) 23.3 7.2 Gross primary enrollment (male-female)
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From page 27... ...
CHANGING CONTEXTS IN WHICH YOUTH ARE TRANSITIONING 27 Data Availability: Latin America and Middle East and South Sub-Saharan First and the Caribbean North Africa Asia Africa Final Years 10.4 15.8 32.1 37.2 1970/2000 9.8 26.3 38.8 40.2 1970/2000 10.9 6.7 26.5 34.1 1970/2000 231.9 254.2 1593.6 1106.9 1970/2000 18.3 31.9 10.6 20.2 1970/2000 19.1 40.4 14.7 20.9 1970/2000 18.9 20.9 4.8 18.3 1970/2000 103.9 249.5 273.4 195.0 1970/2000 5.3 36.8 42.1 15.1 1970/2000 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 1970/2000 4.6 30.1 21.8 18.6 1970/2000 8.2 13.1 12.4 15.0 1970/2000 36.8 381.8 469.2 316.5 1970/2000 33.7 33.4 143.1 129.4 1970/2000 11.0 14.9 14.3 35.9 1960/2000 12.7 35.6 13.6 15.7 1960/1999 15.2 33.2 13.6 15.6 1960/1999 10.3 38.1 14.7 15.9 1960/1999 43.6 158.6 118.5 71.3 1960/1999 37.4 99.7 242.1 209.3 1970/2001 46.4 184.4 308.8 274.8 1970/2001 26.4 1.7 161.7 122.5 1970/2001 29.7 532.9 552.6 472.0 1970/2001 155.9 243.6 911.3 746.4 1970/2001 294.4 827.8 1990.6 1631.5 1970/2001 67.2 26.7 328.3 248.1 1970/2001 74.7 1737.0 2091.3 1609.2 1970/2001
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From page 28... ...
34.9 0.6 CO2 Emissions (Kg per GDP, 1995 US dollars) 57.0 246.3 CO2 Emissions (Kg per GDP, PPP dollars)
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From page 29... ...
CHANGING CONTEXTS IN WHICH YOUTH ARE TRANSITIONING 29 Data Availability: Latin America and Middle East and South Sub-Saharan First and the Caribbean North Africa Asia Africa Final Years 6.6 19.1 30.4 1.4 1960/1999 134.2 276.6 112.2 97.1 1960/1999 57.4 126.6 35.3 16.6 1975/1999 1.0 21.3 1.6 0.0 1960/1999 2.5 13.3 1.1 3.7 1975/2000a
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From page 30... ...
considerably for all the developing country groups, with the single exception of Europe and Central Asia. Age Structure Over the entire period considered, the age dependency ratio has been converging in East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia and particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean, but diverging (with some reversal to convergence in the 1990s)
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From page 31... ...
in the share of population in the 0-14 age range, for although there have been widespread fertility declines in the developing world, they generally have not kept pace with those in the developed world. Another factor is divergence (with the single exception of Europe and Central Asia)
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From page 32... ...
Asia/Dev Reg Sub-Saharan Africa/Dev Reg FIGURE 2-1 Population growth (compared to developed countries = 1.0) by region over time.
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From page 33... ...
Despite this convergence in the rural population growth rates, the shares of population in the rural sector generally have been diverging, except in the Middle East and North Africa. The obverse of this is that the growth rates of urban population generally have been diverging despite fairly widespread declines from previous high levels -- with the exception of some convergence for Europe and Central Asia, though the shares of urban population have been converging (Figure 2-3)
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From page 34... ...
. On the other hand, there has been some divergence in Europe and Central Asia and to a lesser extent in Latin America and the Caribbean and the Middle East and North Africa (the last being a region where the sex ratio was relatively low at the start of the period covered)
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From page 35... ...
have varied substantially among regions. Four of the regions -- East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia-have experienced considerable convergence in economic growth rates.
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From page 36... ...
terms10 have been converging somewhat on average in East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia, but diverging considerably in Europe and Central Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, and to a lesser extent (but still substantially) , in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean (Figure 2-5)
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From page 37... ...
The share of value added in industry has been converging rapidly for East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa. There has been some smaller divergence, in contrast, for South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
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From page 38... ...
A related observation is that economies that depend on primary exports of agricultural and mineral products need to be very open, but are not likely to transform themselves into developed economies very rapidly. Four of the six developing country regions have recently converged toward the developed countries in a standard measure of openness -- the share of exports plus imports in national product.
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From page 39... ...
The share of tax revenues in national product has tended to increase and converge for Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, and, barely, the Middle East and North Africa-but to diverge for East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia (though in both of these cases considering a somewhat different time period suggests some convergence)
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From page 40... ...
Asia/Dev Reg Sub-Saharan Africa/Dev Reg FIGURE 2-6 Share of public expenditure on health (compared to developed countries = 1.0) by region over time.
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From page 41... ...
. The male labor force activity rates, on average, in developing countries have changed much less relative to the developed countries than have the female rates -- with some convergence in East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia and some divergences in the Middle East and North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa.
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From page 42... ...
Asia/Dev Reg Sub-Saharan Africa/Dev Reg FIGURE 2-8 Female labor force (as a percentage of total population) (compared to developed countries = 1.0)
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From page 43... ...
Life Expectancies and Gender Life expectancies and the mortality rates13 that underlie them refer to fundamental aspects of health as they relate to the duration of life, even though they do not refer to the quality of life or the nature of morbidity.14 13Due to space limitations, we do not discuss the patterns in the underlying mortality rates, but some convergence indices for mortality rates are presented in Table 2-1d for interested readers. 14A frequently used measure that refers to the quality of life is Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)
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From page 44... ...
. Gender differences in life expectancies at birth have converged substantially in most developing country regions, but have diverged in the Middle East and North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 2-11)
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From page 45... ...
regard to the discussion of population sex ratios. In fact, since 1985 life expectancies for females have exceeded those for males on average in all the developing country regions, as well as the developed country regions.
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From page 46... ...
The indices suggest that movement toward convergence is predominant for vaccinations. There also has been movement toward convergence in number of physicians per 1,000 people in East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa, and in the number of hospital beds per 1,000 people in East Asia and the Pacific and in Europe and Central Asia (but only barely)
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From page 47... ...
There also have been striking changes in gender differences in enrollments. The absolute gender differences favoring males in gross enrollments at both the primary and the secondary levels have fallen substantially for all the country groups that we consider -- and in some cases have even been reversed (Figures 2-12 and 2-13)
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From page 48... ...
Looking forward, however, the combination of more educated adults due to the substantial schooling expansion (the pool from which teachers will be drawn) and the spread to additional developing regions beyond East Asia and the Pacific of the "demographic bonus" is likely to make possible increases in resources (including teachers)
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From page 49... ...
In fact, there has been considerable convergence by this measure recently in East Asia and the Pacific, and a somewhat lesser convergence in Latin America and the Caribbean and the Middle East and North Africa -- but not much relative change in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, and some divergence in Europe and Central Asia (Figure 2-14)
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From page 50... ...
Vehicular Transport Convergence has been the primary tendency, though with exceptions. Vehicles per 1,000 people, for example, have tended to converge strongly for East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and, to a lesser extent, Latin America and the Caribbean -- though not in South Asia.
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From page 51... ...
Thus for both transportation and communication, there has been a much greater tendency for convergence than for divergence for developing country regions. These tendencies have been a little stronger for East Asia and the Pacific in transportation and for Europe and Central Asia in communication, and weakest for South Asia in transportation and sub-Saharan Africa in communication.
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From page 52... ...
In particular, two of the regions -- Latin America and the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa -- have diverged negatively with regard to economic growth rates. Only two of the regions -- East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia -- have been converging rather than diverging in terms of per capita real product.
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From page 53... ...
tendency for divergence for per capita real product. Taking into consideration all the indicators, the region of East Asia and the Pacific generally has converged most toward developed economics and sub-Saharan Africa least.
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From page 54... ...
cators. Opportunities for youth in East Asia and the Pacific have changed differently in important respects from those, for example in sub-Saharan Africa or Europe and Central Asia.
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From page 55... ...
. Primary schooling in sub-Saharan Africa: Recent trends and current challenges.
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