The Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries Selected Studies (2005) / Chapter Skim
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4 Progress Toward Education for All: Trends and Current Challenges for sub-Saharan Africa--Paul C. Hewett and Cynthia B. Lloyd
4 Progress Toward Education for All: Trends and Current Challenges for sub-Saharan Africa--Paul C. Hewett and Cynthia B. Lloyd
Pages 84-117
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From page 84... ...
This latter number is nearly twice the entire population of children ages 10 to 14 in the United States, virtually all of whom will complete a primary education.1 Indeed, the level of educational participation and attainment in sub-Saharan Africa falls significantly below all other regions in the developing world (Chapter 3)
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From page 85... ...
In the first part of the chapter we review two often-used indicators for monitoring educational progress, the net primary enrollment ratio (NPER) and the survival rate to grade five, and compare them with similar measures from the nationally representative household data generated from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)
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From page 86... ...
HEWETT AND CYNTHIA B LLOYD TABLE 4-1 Key Features of Educational Systems in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000 Constitutional Guarantee Age of Years of Compulsory Free Entry Primary Benin 6 6 Burkina Faso 7 6 Cameroon 6 6 Central African Republic 6 6 Chad 6 6 Comoros 6 6 Côte d'Ivoire 6 6 Ethiopia 7 6 Ghana 6 6 Guinea 7 6 Kenya 6 7 Madagascar 6 5 Malawi 6 6 Mali 7 6 Mozambique 6 5 Niger 7 6 Nigeria 6 6 Rwanda 7 6 South Africa 7 7 Tanzania 7 7 Togo a a 6 6 Uganda a 6 7 Zambia 7 7 Zimbabwe a a 6 7 aTo be progressively introduced.
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From page 87... ...
Using the MDG for primary schooling, countries with a longer primary cycle are currently judged by a tougher standard than countries with a shorter primary cycle. 2The gross primary enrollment ratio (GPER)
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From page 88... ...
In each of these nationally representative surveys, educational participation and attainment information is collected for all household members, while current schooling status is obtained for those ages 5 to 24.4 Arguably, the DHS estimate of attendance is likely to be more accurate in assessing actual school participation than the UNESCO NPER estimate, given that the NPER captures those that may have enrolled, but never actually attended school (UNESCO, 2002)
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From page 89... ...
Estimated Year of DHS Sample Size Population Most Recent of Population Ages 10-24 in 2000 Country DHS Ages 10-24 (in thousands) Benin 2001 9,257 2,115 Burkina Faso 1998-1999 10,243 3,976 Cameroon 1998 8,833 4,996 Central African Republic 1994-1995 8,529 1,199 Chad 1996-1997 11,149 2,491 Comoros 1996 4,852 240 Côte d'Ivoire 1998-1999 4,654 5,595 Ethiopia 1999 22,769 19,988 Ghana 1998-1999 6,991 6,581 Guinea 1999 10,097 2,637 Kenya 1998 13,021 11,306 Madagascar 1997 11,080 5,025 Malawi 2000 20,884 3,722 Mali 2001 19,329 3,652 Mozambique 1997 14,730 5,848 Niger 1998 11,052 3,505 Nigeria 1999 11,589 37,637 Rwanda 2000 16,679 2,689 South Africa 1998-2000 17,276 13,715 Tanzania 1999 6,115 11,845 Togo 1998 14,041 1,496 Uganda 2000-2001 12,742 7,757 Zambia 2001-2002 12,788 3,521 Zimbabwe 1999 10,374 4,489 SOURCES: DHS household data, United Nations Population Division estimates, 2000 (United Nations, 2001)
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From page 90... ...
Certainly the DHS question wording was intended to capture all who are still enrolled in school, even if they were not currently attending due to illness, school vacation, or other mitigating circumstances. However, to address this concern, the DHS has specifically added a question to their most recent surveys that asks if -- during the current school year -- the household member attended school at any time.5 Table 4-3 presents the most recent UNESCO NPER and attendance rates from the DHS for boys and girls using the same primary school age ranges for each country.6 Figures 4-1a and 4-1b combine these two indicators in scatter plots, pairing estimates with a 45-degree line representing complete equality between the measures.
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From page 91... ...
, males. of by Table Age Ranges 6-11 7-12 6-11 6-11 6-11 6-11 6-11 7-12 6-11 7-12 6-12 6-10 6-11 7-12 6-10 7-12 6-11 7-12 7-13 7-13 6-11 6-12 7-13 6-12 divided (2002, Comparison females as UNESCO 4-3 Faso d'Ivoire Africa TABLE Country Benin Burkina Cameroon C.A.R.
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From page 92... ...
Girls 100 90 South Africa Zimbabwe 80 70 Zambia 60 Togo Tanzania Madagascar DHS 50 Mozambique Cote d'Ivoire Benin 40 Comoros Rwanda 30 Ethiopia Chad Niger Guinea 20 Burkina Faso 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 UNESCO FIGURE 4-1 Comparison of UNESCO NPER and DHS attendance rate. SOURCE: Table 4-3, this volume.
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From page 93... ...
Regardless of how we interpret these discrepancies, UNESCO enrollment data imply much larger gender gaps in schooling in these countries than DHS attendance data. Given late starting ages and different lengths of the primary cycle, it is also interesting to compare UNESCO's survival rate to grade 5 and the DHS grade 4 completion rate among those ever enrolled, two alternative indicators of grade progression.
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From page 94... ...
94 a Ratio DHS .91 1.05 1.01 .86 .74 .99 .94 .99 .99 .92 1.01 1.06 1.03 .98 .78 .99 .99 .99 1.01 1.06 .88 .96 1.00 1.00 Enrollment Parity sGiven Gender UNESCO -- 1.05 -- -- .85 -- .92 .98 -- .86 -- .67 -- -- .75 .97 -- .89 1.02 1.06 .89 1.04 -- 1.01 Rate DHS 75.5 84.5 88.0 57.1 42.7 74.9 81.6 54.3 92.8 80.7 93.8 55.1 77.8 84.7 50.3 86.0 95.2 66.5 98.8 88.0 68.0 82.3 84.5 97.2 Completion 4 Grade Girls UNESCO -- 70.4 -- -- 53.0 -- 71.0 50.0 -- 79.1 -- 33.0 -- -- 39.0 60.2 -- 42.8 76.7 83.3 48.4 45.5 -- 79.0 DHS data. and DHS 83.2 80.3 86.8 66.7 57.8 75.2 87.0 54.8 93.5 87.8 93.1 52.0 75.9 86.4 64.2 87.2 96.5 67.0 97.4 83.0 77.3 85.5 84.8 96.3 5 household Grade to DHS Boys UNESCO -- 66.9 -- -- 62.0 -- 77.0 51.0 -- 92.5 -- 49.0 -- -- 52.0 62.1 -- 47.9 75.1 78.6 54.2 43.9 -- 78.0 and Rates (2002)
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From page 95... ...
Girls 100 South Africa Zimbabwe 90 Niger Tanzania Uganda 80 Burkina Faso Guinea Cote d'Ivoire 70 Rwanda Togo 60 Madagascar Ethiopia DHS 50 Mozambique 40 Chad 30 20 10 00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 UNESCO FIGURE 4-2 Comparison of UNESCO survival rate to grade 5 and DHS grade 4 completion rate given enrollment. SOURCE: Table 4-4, this volume.
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From page 96... ...
If UNESCO indicators are utilized to monitor progress over time, for example, by comparing estimates at two or more points in time, inaccurate conclusions regarding educational trends and the achievement of EFA goals may be the result. In the next section of the chapter, we rely entirely on DHS data to derive country-specific, as well as region-wide, trends using alternative indicators that can be obtained from retrospective histories of educational attainment.
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From page 97... ...
Again, because of late starting ages, not all children can safely be assumed to complete grade 4 until the age of 15. For completed primary, the base cohort for trend comparisons is 20- to 24-year-olds because in countries with longer primary cycles, students have been known to be still enrolled in primary at the age of 18 or 19 (Lloyd, Mensch, and Clark, 2000)
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From page 98... ...
The trends in Table 4-5 are based on weighted averages, using the United Nations estimate of the population ages 10 to 24 in 2000 as the weight for each country.12 Figures 4-3a, 4-3b, and 4-3c illustrate these trends and place them in a 11The projections for grade 4 completion and completed primary for the most recent age cohorts (10 to 14 and 15 to 19) are estimated by assuming that the difference between the percentage ever in school and the percent completed 4+ years for each age cohort, and the difference between the percentage completed 4+ years and the percentage completed primary, will be maintained in the near future.
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From page 99... ...
99 Parity b d d Gender Ratio .93 .87 .82 .78 .71 .62 .57 a c c Primary Female 53.3 50.5 47.6 44.8 39.8 33.3 26.2 Countries c c Completed Male 57.6 57.8 57.8 57.1 55.9 53.9 46.3 African 2001)
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From page 100... ...
LLOYD (a) Completed primary 100 90 80 70 54 56 57 58 58 58 60 46 50 53 50 48 Percentage 40 45 40 30 33 20 26 10 late 1960s early 1970s late 1970s early 1980s late 1980s early 1990s late 1990s 0 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 Age range Boys Girls Author estimates (b)
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From page 101... ...
In stark contrast, over the same time period, females' primary completion rates have risen steadily from a much lower base of roughly 26 percent in the late 1960s to 53 percent projected for the late 1990s, roughly doubling the level of achievement over this period. The pace of progress for females, which was rapid, has slowed somewhat in the past 10 years.
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From page 102... ...
As with the primary completion rates, grade 4 completion rates for females have increased markedly over time, although it is clear that a large part of the growth was for the older age cohorts. As a result, the estimated gender gap for grade 4 completion has declined to 5 percentage points for the latest time period.
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From page 103... ...
Thus, more than half the countries represented in this analysis with smaller populations of children ages 10 to 24 face even greater challenges in achieving education for all than would be implied by the weighted regional data. CURRENT CHALLENGES AND FUTURE PROGRESS TOWARD EFA In the 1990s, qualitative evaluations of the educational situation in the region described a thinning of the provision of education and the inability of countries to maintain current levels of achievement given lagging investment and continuing growth in the size of school-age cohorts (Kinyanjui, 14 Botswana, Cameroon, and South Africa are exceptions.
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From page 104... ...
HEWETT AND CYNTHIA B LLOYD TABLE 4-6a Trends in Percentage Ever Attended School, by Age Group: 24 sub-Saharan African Countries Ages 10-24 Ages 10-14 Survey Country Date 2000 Population Boys Girls Benin 2001 2,115 .76 .55 Burkina Faso 1998-1999 3,976 .41 .27 Cameroon 1998 4,996 .89 .84 Central African 1994-1995 1,199 .83 .63 Republic Chad 1996-1997 2,491 .55 .35 Comoros 1996 240 .77 .64 Côte d'Ivoire 1998-1999 5,595 .73 .57 Ethiopia 1999 19,988 .50 .40 Ghana 1998-1999 6,581 .87 .86 Guinea 1999 2,637 .58 .40 Kenya 1998 11,306 .96 .95 Madagascar 1997 5,025 .78 .78 Malawi 2000 3,722 .93 .93 Mali 2001 3,652 .51 .36 Mozambique 1997 5,848 .85 .71 Niger 1998 3,505 .41 .27 Nigeria 1999 37,637 .83 .79 Rwanda 2000 2,689 .88 .88 South Africa 1998-2000 13,715 .98 .99 Togo 1998 1,496 .89 .72 Uganda 2000-2001 7,757 .96 .95 United Republic of 1999 11,845 .75 .74 Tanzania Zambia 2001-2002 3,521 .86 .84 Zimbabwe 1999 4,489 .98 .99 SOURCE: United Nations (2001)
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From page 105... ...
PROGRESS TOWARD EDUCATION FOR ALL 105 Change for Most Change for Earlier Ages 20-24 Ages 30-34 Recent Decade Decade Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls .65 .36 .61 .34 16.9 50.1 6.7 8.4 .36 .17 .23 .09 12.7 62.0 58.7 81.1 .91 .78 .85 .67 2.1 7.8 6.2 15.3 .86 .56 .81 .49 3.7 11.9 6.6 15.1 .61 .27 .45 .17 10.6 28.9 35.3 63.0 .78 .64 .62 .35 1.4 0.4 26.2 82.4 .63 .53 .52 .38 16.1 7.2 21.6 41.1 .53 .30 .50 .21 6.7 31.7 6.6 47.0 .87 .75 .83 .65 0.2 14.4 4.4 14.6 .49 .24 .43 .18 18.7 66.2 12.7 36.5 .97 .95 .96 .91 0.8 .2 1.5 3.7 .82 .81 .82 .79 4.9 4.6 0.4 3.5 .91 .81 .83 .65 2.2 14.8 8.6 24.0 .34 .20 .33 .19 48.3 81.5 3.7 6.6 .82 .59 .83 .65 3.6 20.7 1.7 9.2 .39 .20 .27 .12 4.8 37.6 44.5 62.4 .83 .70 .76 .58 0.4 13.7 8.8 20.3 .83 .82 .70 .65 5.3 7.4 18.7 25.7 .98 .98 .95 .92 .3 .9 2.5 6.0 .85 .59 .77 .47 4.5 23.0 10.6 26.1 .93 .84 .91 .74 4.2 13.5 2.0 13.7 .89 .83 .91 .79 15.1 10.4 2.2 5.6 .94 .88 .94 .88 8.4 4.3 0.3 0.1 .99 .98 .97 .94 .0 .6 1.3 4.3
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From page 106... ...
HEWETT AND CYNTHIA B LLOYD TABLE 4-6b Trends in Percentage Completed 4+ Years, by Age Group: 24 sub-Saharan African Countries Ages 10-24 Ages 15-19 Survey Country Date 2000 Population Boys Girls Benin 2001 2,115 .62 .36 Burkina Faso 1998-1999 3,976 .30 .18 Cameroon 1998 4,996 .78 .72 Central African 1994-1995 1,199 .56 .35 Republic Chad 1996-1997 2,491 .36 .14 Comoros 1996 240 .64 .49 Côte d'Ivoire 1998-1999 5,595 .57 .41 Ethiopia 1999 19,988 .31 .21 Ghana 1998-1999 6,581 .85 .79 Guinea 1999 2,637 .49 .25 Kenya 1998 11,306 .91 .91 Madagascar 1997 5,025 .41 .43 Malawi 2000 3,722 .72 .72 Mali 2001 3,652 .35 .23 Mozambique 1997 5,848 .56 .34 Niger 1998 3,505 .36 .18 Nigeria 1999 37,637 .83 .73 Rwanda 2000 2,689 .57 .57 South Africa 1998-2000 13,715 .96 .98 Togo 1998 1,496 .69 .47 Uganda 2000-2001 7,757 .83 .74 United Republic of 1999 11,845 .73 .70 Tanzania Zambia 2001-2002 3,521 .80 .77 Zimbabwe 1999 4,489 .95 .95 SOURCE: United Nations (2001)
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From page 107... ...
PROGRESS TOWARD EDUCATION FOR ALL 107 Change for Most Change for Earlier Ages 25-29 Ages 35-39 Recent Decade Decade Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls .46 .22 .47 .18 34.5 66.0 1.7 17.5 .21 .10 .13 .08 41.5 84.9 62.7 31.8 .82 .65 .73 .54 5.2 10.3 13.1 20.9 .58 .32 .52 .18 3.6 7.9 10.6 82.7 .34 .08 .29 .07 7.4 83.1 16.2 8.9 .63 .44 .35 .15 2.3 12.2 79.3 189.3 .59 .43 .50 .27 3.2 5.9 16.9 59.3 .37 .20 .29 .08 16.1 6.7 24.9 145.9 .84 .62 .77 .60 1.5 26.7 8.7 3.8 .35 .15 .31 .12 38.7 65.9 13.5 25.5 .93 .89 .91 .72 2.5 2.3 2.3 22.5 .57 .56 .55 .42 28.1 22.4 4.4 32.1 .70 .48 .66 .38 3.3 49.2 4.8 25.6 .25 .14 .25 .15 41.1 64.3 1.2 5.8 .50 .30 .52 .18 13.0 13.9 5.0 67.4 .27 .15 .16 .07 33.1 21.1 69.4 108.9 .79 .64 .76 .48 4.9 14.5 5.0 33.5 .65 .62 .52 .37 12.1 8.2 25.2 69.0 .93 .91 .89 .84 3.3 6.6 4.7 8.8 .64 .33 .61 .27 7.7 44.3 4.9 22.7 .78 .58 .71 .46 6.1 27.1 9.7 25.6 .83 .78 .85 .54 10.9 9.2 2.7 43.3 .85 .78 .87 .71 5.5 1.3 2.1 10.3 .97 .94 .91 .72 2.0 1.0 6.7 30.7
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From page 108... ...
HEWETT AND CYNTHIA B LLOYD TABLE 4-6c Trends in Percentage Completed Primary, by Age Group: 24 sub-Saharan African Countries Ages 10-24 Ages 20-24 Survey Country Date 2000 Population Boys Girls Benin 2001 2,115 .38 .17 Burkina Faso 1998-1999 3,976 .25 .12 Cameroon 1998 4,996 .69 .60 Central African 1994-1995 1,199 .40 .22 Republic Chad 1996-1997 2,491 .29 .07 Comoros 1996 240 .51 .41 Côte d'Ivoire 1998-1999 5,595 .46 .34 Ethiopia 1999 19,988 .23 .14 Ghana 1998-1999 6,581 .80 .62 Guinea 1999 2,637 .36 .15 Kenya 1998 11,306 .70 .62 Madagascar 1997 5,025 .31 .32 Malawi 2000 3,722 .44 .26 Mali 2001 3,652 .24 .12 Mozambique 1997 5,848 .18 .08 Niger 1998 3,505 .30 .14 Nigeria 1999 37,637 .79 .65 Rwanda 2000 2,689 .40 .36 South Africa 1998-2000 13,715 .86 .90 Togo 1998 1,496 .50 .22 Uganda 2000-2001 7,757 .47 .32 United Republic of 1999 11,845 .71 .67 Tanzania Zambia 2001-2002 3,521 .68 .54 Zimbabwe 1999 4,489 .88 .86 SOURCE: United Nations (2001)
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From page 109... ...
PROGRESS TOWARD EDUCATION FOR ALL 109 Change for Most Change for Earlier Ages 30-34 Ages 35-44 Recent Decade Decade Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls .34 .16 .26 .10 13.4 5.8 29.2 64.2 .15 .06 .12 .04 72.4 89.2 24.2 61.4 .67 .43 .57 .31 2.9 39.7 17.9 40.5 .38 .18 .26 .06 5.1 24.5 45.6 210.8 .21 .04 .17 .02 40.8 72.2 22.8 123.1 .48 .26 .20 .07 5.3 58.3 140.1 290.0 .44 .27 .37 .28 6.5 27.0 16.8 3.7 .25 .08 .16 .03 7.6 75.6 51.7 209.9 .74 .51 .73 .49 7.0 21.8 1.6 5.1 .31 .11 .27 .09 14.4 31.3 14.7 23.3 .81 .65 .73 .41 13.1 4.7 10.4 60.5 .45 .39 .30 .22 30.8 17.5 47.8 75.4 .37 .15 .33 .11 18.7 69.9 12.9 34.8 .19 .09 .21 .07 27.3 25.6 12.3 28.1 .20 .08 .13 .02 6.9 10.8 51.0 309.8 .20 .09 .11 .04 49.9 57.6 79.3 122.7 .72 .52 .60 .31 9.4 24.8 19.0 69.3 .41 .31 .31 .19 3.4 15.6 35.0 67.4 .78 .73 .65 .61 10.3 22.4 19.8 20.6 .53 .19 .42 .14 5.0 15.3 27.2 34.8 .44 .24 .44 .21 7.9 34.9 .0 11.4 .75 .62 .51 .30 5.6 8.7 48.6 108.2 .75 .53 .78 .46 8.7 1.5 4.1 15.2 .88 .74 .68 .41 .6 16.4 29.6 79.1
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From page 110... ...
Although the UNESCO data do not allow us to explore differential educational attainment by household living standards, this is possible with DHS data. The DHS data are particularly advantageous in this way for EFA monitoring, given that many current reform efforts, in the presence of resource constraints, are attempting to target resources where they are most needed.
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From page 111... ...
These include Kenya, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Ghana, Rwanda, Malawi, Zambia, Cameroon, Madagascar, Burkina Faso, and Mali. We 17Of the three indicators, grade 4 completion rates were selected because, relative to attendance rates, they provide a measure basic schooling attainment.
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From page 112... ...
SOURCE: DHS household data. find a few countries where inequalities for boys are greater than inequalities for girls: South Africa, Ghana, Rwanda, Zambia, and Madagascar.
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From page 113... ...
dÕIvoire ogoT Rwanda Comoros Cameroon anzaniaT Malawi Nigeria Zambia Uganda Ghana Kenya Africa Burkina Madagascar Zimbabwe Mozambique Cte South Boys Girls FIGURE 4-5 Grade 4 completion, 15- to 19-year-olds. SOURCE: DHS household data.
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From page 114... ...
We conclude from our assessment of UNESCO's two indicators for monitoring progress toward EFA and the MDG that UNESCO data may provide a potentially misleading picture of current progress. Not only are rates of enrollment significantly higher relative to attendance data from nationally representative DHS surveys, but gender parity ratios suggest a greater remaining gap in attendance than comparable DHS data.
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From page 115... ...
provided documentation of the differential in educational attainment by household wealth status using data from many of the DHS available a few years ago. Even earlier, Knodel and Jones (1996)
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From page 116... ...
This chapter offers a new comparison of the size of gender gaps and wealth gaps across most of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa using several widely accepted schooling indicators. With the gender gap closing in many cases at levels of educational attainment that fall far short of universal primary schooling, new strategies will need to be devised to reach the poorest parents and their children.
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From page 117... ...
Pretoria, South Africa: Human Sciences Research Council. Reimers, F
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