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The Fuel Tax and Alternatives for Transportation Funding Special Report 285 (2006) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B Automotive Technology Projections
Pages 209-216

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From page 209...
... 2005 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections of light-duty vehicle fuel economy to 2025 in the reference case and the "high technology" case (EIA 2005a)
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From page 210...
... In summary, DOE projected that no likely developments in automotive technology, regulation, or world energy prices would have more than a modest effect on fuel economy or highway fuel con sumption by 2025. In the AEO 2006 Early Release reference case projections, which assume future world oil prices similar to those of the AEO 2005 high B oil price case, in 2025 light-duty fleet fuel economy reaches 22.0 mpg and new light-duty vehicle (EPA)
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From page 211...
... NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM STUDY OF HIGHWAY TRUST FUND IMPACTS The National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) study was specifically concerned with the effects of possible vehicle technology and regula tory developments on Federal Highway Trust Fund revenues to 2020, under the assumption that tax rates are unchanged.
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From page 212...
... CALIFORNIA CO2 EMISSIONS STANDARDS PROPOSAL According to California law enacted in 2002 (Assembly Bill 1493) , by 2005 the state is to "develop and adopt regulations that achieve the maximum feasible and cost-effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles." The law specifies that the regulations are to be "economical to the owner or operator of a vehicle." The regulations affect model year 2009 and later vehicles.
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From page 213...
... Each motor vehicle manufacturer would be required to meet standards for the average emissions per mile of carbon dioxide (or other pollutants equivalent in greenhouse warming effect) for its new vehicles sold in California, beginning in 2009 and with more stringent standards applied annu ally through 2014.
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From page 214...
... Approximately the same per centage reductions would occur in gallons of motor fuels consumed. The state's evaluation of the proposed regulation considered the effect of increased purchase price on new-vehicle sales and total vehicle registrations and of lower operating cost on vehicle miles of travel.
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From page 215...
... The study includes a projection of the feasi ble rate of conversion to hydrogen fuel cells for motor vehicle propulsion, charac terized as a "plausible, but optimistic vision" (NRC 2004, 65) , which suggests the possibility of much earlier conversion to new propulsion technologies than the other projections reviewed in this chapter.
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From page 216...
... 2004. Draft: Staff Proposal Regarding the Maximum Feasible and Cost-Effective Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Motor Vehicles.
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Key Terms

  • annual energy
  • energy outlook
  • vehicle miles
  • motor vehicle
  • vehicle sales

  • economy improvements
  • automotive technology
  • fuel cell
  • emissions standards
  • trust fund

  • average fuel
  • highway trust
  • cell vehicles
  • cooperative highway
  • light duty

  • greenhouse gas
  • corporate average
  • light trucks
  • economy projections
  • highway research

  • market share
  • national cooperative
  • vehicle fuel
  • fleet fuel
  • economy standards

  • fuel consumption
  • vehicle operation
  • duty vehicle
  • motor vehicles
  • gas emissions


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