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#### Appendix D Calculation of Expected Number of Deaths in the US Air Force Ranch Hand Morbidity Study Cohort over the Next 10 Years Pages 239-245

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 From page 239...... D Calculation of Expected Number of Deaths in the U.S. Air Force Ranch Hand Morbidity Study Cohort over the Next 10 Years As noted in Chapters 2 and 5, the latest Air Force Health Study (AFHS) Read the entire page → From page 240...... 240 DISPOSITION OF THE AIR FORCE HEALTH STUDY An alternative approach -- which has sufficient accuracy to make a rough estimate of statistical power1 -- is to calculate the expected number of deaths in the cohort over a given period of follow-up. For the purpose of this exercise, the committee chose a 10-year follow-up beginning in 2005 and ending in 2015. Read the entire page → From page 241...... APPENDIX D 241 To estimate the statistical power for rarer health outcomes, the committee also carried out calculations for hypothetical endpoints that have proportions of 5 percent (for example, influenza) and 3 percent (diabetes mellitus) Read the entire page → From page 242...... 242 DISPOSITION OF THE AIR FORCE HEALTH STUDY TABLE D-1 Summary Statistics for the Compliant Cohorts and Estimated Numbers of Deaths from 2005 until 2015 Ranch Hand Cohort Comparison Cohort Number of subjects who died before 2005 199 258 Number of subjects alive in 2005 998 1,597 Mean age (std. Read the entire page → From page 243...... APPENDIX D 243 TABLE D-3 Power to Detect Relative Risks of 1.5 by Cause of Death, if There Is No Further Follow-Up* Ranch Hand Comparison Cohort Cohort Malignant neoplasms 98.0 99.5 Diseases of the heart 92.5 96.9 Chronic lower respiratory diseases 54.0 63.3 A disease that contributes 5% to the total number of deaths 41.4 49.0 A disease that contributes 3% to the total number of deaths 29.5 34.7 * Read the entire page → From page 244...... 244 DISPOSITION OF THE AIR FORCE HEALTH STUDY TABLE D-6 Diseases of the Heart: Estimated Number of Deaths and Power to Detect Various Relative Risks with an Additional 10 Years of Follow-Up Ranch Hand Cohort Comparison Cohort Estimated* number of deaths in cohort by 2015 113 164 Power to detect relative risks of: 1.2 65.1 79.0 1.5 99.1 100 2.0 100 100 * Read the entire page → From page 245...... APPENDIX D 245 TABLE D-9 A Disease That Contributes 3 Percent to the Total Number of Deaths: Estimated Number of Deaths and Power to Detect Various Relative Risks with an Additional 10 Years of Follow-Up Ranch Hand Cohort Comparison Cohort Estimated* number of deaths in cohort by 2015 15 21 Power to detect relative risks of: 1.2 18.4 22.2 1.5 54.0 66.3 2.0 94.2 98.5 * Read the entire page →

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