Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure Protecting People and Reducing Vulnerabilities (2006) / Chapter Skim
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4. Realistic Chemical Incident Scenarios
4. Realistic Chemical Incident Scenarios
Pages 38-66
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From page 38... ...
All possible scenarios envisioned that resulted in catastrophic consequences were versions of one of three basic scenarios: high-volume release (fixed site or transport) , shortage, and misuse (i.e., theft or tampering)
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3See the following web site for more information: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/ releases/2003/12/20031217-5.html. 4Richard Eiser, professor of psychology at the University of Sheffield, defines social amplification as "the many ways in which information about risks is amplified by some social processes and reduced by others.
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A catastrophic event is one whose consequences are so extensive that they overwhelm the ability of emergency responders, local, state, and federal government officials, and/or the general public to adequately and/ or fully respond in a timely fashion.5 Incident Scenarios Using its knowledge of and information about the chemical sector, and applying the methodology described in Chapter 3, particularly the supply chain characteristics presented in Figure 3.1, the study committee set out to envision attack scenarios involving the chemical infrastructure that would be significant enough to require a federal response. It found that all plausible scenarios generated in this red teaming type exercise that had the potential to reach a catastrophic level of impact fell into one of three basic categories: 1.
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A recent Congressional Research Service report details many of those estimates and discusses the differences in the analyses and assumptions that lead to them.7 To preclude the possibility that the conclusions of this study could be dismissed because they are perceived as being based on flawed modeling of casualties, this report uses consequences from the historical accident record to provide existence proof for the consequences postulated in its scenario exercise. Accident records are used, rather than a record of terrorist attacks, because there have been an extremely low number of terrorist attacks against the chemical infrastructure to date, and even fewer of these have had significant consequences.
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From page 42... ...
As Figure 4.1 indicates, this scenario has particular relevance to storage of inorganic chemicals, industrial gases, and petrochemicals and fossil fuels. Examples of inorganic chemicals that are toxic and stored in large volumes include chlorine, ammonia, and hydrogen fluoride.
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The shock wave from this attack causes the destruction of Facility B Shrapnel from Facility B hits Storage Tanks C, which then release toxic chemicals into the river, the source of drinking water for River City and downstream communities.
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. Terrorists attack Facility A, triggering one or more explosions involving large storage containers of inorganic chemicals, petrochemicals, or fuels and specialty chemicals.
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Toxic chemical exposures of residents in the community are increased because of broken windows and other structural damage to nearby property caused by the initial explosion, because of the timing of the event (people are at home) , and because of limited evacuation routes.
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Given that the event resulted from terrorism, social amplification could occur with further impact on the national economy. Impact on Government Function.
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Possible effects resulting from social amplification could include demands that chemical facilities nationwide be temporarily shut down, comparable to the cessation of air traffic after 9/11. If such a shutdown were to occur, the economic impact would be large.
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It may be difficult to recognize that coordinated attacks are occurring since terrorists benefit by disguising the relationships among events until their objectives are realized. However, early recognition of coordinated attacks is key to preventing further consequences and managing the potential for social amplification.
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Storage of hazardous materials is necessary near urban centers -- where gasoline is consumed, chlorine is used for water treatment, and factories are located near workers and consumers. Large storage tanks are present in urban centers; particularly those centers characterized as inland ports and centralized hubs of industrial production.
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See the following web site for more information: http://www.epa.gov/oppt/aegl/. 18ALOHA is an atmospheric dispersion model used for evaluating releases of hazardous chemical vapors.
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· Research to develop inherently safer alternatives and apply them to current processes that require high volumes of toxic or flammable materials. Previous reports have noted that changes adopted in the chemical industry to reduce costs, reduce environmental impact, or improve safety have also enhanced security by reducing the availability of hazardous materials for use in an attack.20 These changes include the introduction of justin-time manufacturing and delivery of starting materials or key intermediates, development of inherently safer processes that involve less toxic materials or smaller volumes of material, design of resilient engineered systems and process control systems, and introduction of "over-the-fence" or 19PHAST examines the progress of a potential incident from the initial release to farfield dispersion including modeling of pool spreading and evaporation, and flammable and toxic effects.
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From page 52... ...
Second, the quantity of hazardous chemicals in any one truck or rail shipment is usually far less than the amount of hazardous materials stored at a fixed facility -- large truck shipments are typically on the order of 40,000 pounds, while rail shipments can be four times higher than this.23 Figure 3.2 illustrates the key questions and supply chain characteristics to be considered during the decision-making process (i.e., high volume of materials, proximity of routes to population centers, robustness of contain 21Allgood, Charles.
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As indicated in Figure 3.1, the categories of chemicals that are of particular concern in this scenario include inorganic chemicals, industrial gases, and petrochemicals and fossil fuels. Scenario Hazardous chemicals are shipped by truck, rail, marine vessel, pipeline, and sometimes air (in much more limited quantities)
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Social amplification will depend on the specific circumstances of an event. An event in an urban area may lead to calls for permanent bans on shipping of hazardous materials through urban areas, with subsequent economic impacts.
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In particular, transportation may pass through localities that are not prepared for hazmat response, do not have appropriate emergency planning, and are not prepared for hazmat incidents. In addition, local jurisdictions' ability to coordinate their emergency preparedness and response action with hazmat carriers is inherently more limited than with fixed-site facility operators.25 Possible Science and Technology Investment Science and technology investments in areas described in the highvolume storage scenario will also help mitigate the high-volume transport scenario.
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This is a key element of the shortage scenario -- it is by exacerbating an existing critical but perhaps manageable situation that terrorist action can cause a chemical shortage that is catastrophic in its consequences.] Scenario Location.
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Available at http://www.Forbes.com. 33Homeland Security Council.
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Impact on Government Function. State and local governments in heavily affected areas may be overwhelmed in their attempts to respond adequately.
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As discussed in Chapter 2, the chemical sector has redundant supply chains, moderate stockpiles of raw ingredients, and collaborative agreements to provide redundant manufacturing in an emergency or crisis situation, such as a shortage. The federal government also monitors the supply of some key pharmaceuticals and stockpiles them in order to ensure that there is no unexpected critical pharmaceutical shortage.
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The Department of Defense (DOD) also maintains a list of critical material and their suppliers deemed important to national security.41 Social amplification plays a key role in this scenario.
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Possible science and technology investments for this scenario include the following: · Real-time national inventory tracking of certain chemicals, and the ability to predict how extra normal but nonterrorist events might create the opportunity for terrorist-induced catastrophic shortages. This would greatly aid planning and protective measures.
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economy, they have significant potential for widespread social amplification. Scenario Small quantities of chemicals can produce only small, direct impacts over small or large impact areas, but specific locations or situations might be targeted specifically to cause social concern and amplify the physical impact, or repeated incidents could cause indirect impacts that exceed the direct impacts.
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Supply Chain Consequences. Producers of the affected consumer product may experience significant economic downturns as affected and unaffected populations stop buying their goods.
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government spent $1.6 billion on emergency preparedness in local jurisdictions for biological attacks and more than $200 million for the cleanup of affected facilities. Kempter, J
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In general, quick, effective action to respond to a tampering case, combined with effective and open communication to the general population, provide the best opportunities to attenuate the social amplification that will almost certainly occur in response to such an incident. It may be all but impossible to prevent a determined attacker from successfully tampering with a product.
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Therefore, consequences are best mitigated through effective communication and emergency response. Possible Science and Technology Investment · Increase the speed and accuracy of the population protection process: detect, classify, notify, warn, and respond.
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