Countering Urban Terrorism in Russia and the United States Proceedings of a Workshop (2006) / Chapter Skim
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A Decision Informatics Approach to Urban Emergency Management
A Decision Informatics Approach to Urban Emergency Management
Pages 79-94
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From page 79... ...
has called the decision informatics paradigm, is focused on decisions and based on multiple data sources, data fusion and analysis methods, timely information, stochastic decision models, and a systems engineering outlook. It should be emphatically stated that while the terms employed in describing the methodologies that underpin decision informatics are those belonging to decision analysis (emergency management, statistics, risk analysis, 79
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From page 80... ...
The remaining sections of this paper deal with the types of disruption, the stages of or life cycle in a disruption, the decision informatics paradigm, and the combination of types, stages, and decisions in the efforts of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and its academically based Homeland Security Centers of Excellence, followed by some concluding remarks.
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From page 81... ...
As identified earlier, there are, in essence, three types of disruptions: natural incidents due to nature or natural forces, accidental incidents due to human errors or structural failures, and willful incidents due to human acts or destructive weapons. The who, what, when, and where of a number of well-known disruptions occurring in the latter half of the twentieth century are considered in Table 1.
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From page 82... ...
Accidental 1984 Bhopal Gas Tragedy Toxic methylisocyanate chemical vapor escaped from the Union Carbide plant due to safety valve malfunction. 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster While testing Reactor 4 and ignoring safety procedures, a chain reaction caused explosion and release of highly radioactive material.
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From page 83... ...
Local: 12 killed; Subway cars in Tokyo, Japan thousands injured September 11, 2001, Local: 3,000 killed; billions American Airlines flight 11 8:47 a.m.10:06 a.m. of dollars of infrastructure crashes into World Trade and commercial damage Center (WTC)
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From page 84... ...
The additional detection stage is also necessary; it follows prediction and precedes response and is very much dependent on data obtained from multiple data sources or sensors and the careful fusion and analysis of that data. Table 3 identifies the six stages of a disruption's life cycle in terms of related decisions that must be considered at each stage.
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From page 85... ...
85 Weapons Link Acts Willful Human Destructive Minutes Low High People Infrastructures/Commerce Weakest Local Months/Years Medium/Large Failures Errors Accidental Human Structural Hours Medium Low Infrastructures Commerce/People Indiscriminate Local/Regional Months/Years Medium/Large Disruption Forces of Types Natural Nature Natural Hours/Days High Low Infrastructures Commerce/People Indiscriminate Regional/Worldwide Years Medium/Large Characteristics Characteristics Primary Secondary Period Predictability Adaptability Primary Secondary Vulnerability Spatial Temporal Damage Disruption 2 TABLE Cause Onset Target Impact
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How can potential terrorists be converted away from terrorism? How can one prepare for disruption without degrading quality of life and civil liberties?
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From page 87... ...
Further, since any data analysis or modeling effort should only be undertaken for some purpose or decision, all analyses and modeling activities should be able to be viewed within the decision informatics framework. In short, decision informatics represents a decision-driven, information-based, adaptive, real-time, human-centered, inte
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homeland, the U.S. Homeland Security Act of 2002 (Public Law 107-296, see U.S.
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Issues Standards, Compatibility, Interoperability, Scale Analysis Types Data Fusion, Data Analysis, Data Mining, Data Interpolation, Evolutionary Algorithms, Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats Disciplines Decision Analysis (Statistics, Risk Analysis, Operations Research, Economics) , Science (Information, Cognition, Psychology, Sociology, Behavior, Organization, Computer, Agriculture, Livestock, Food, Ocean, Atmosphere)
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From page 90... ...
dents. The NRP incorporates best practices and procedures from incident management disciplines -- homeland security, emergency management, law enforcement, firefighting, public works, public health, responder and recovery worker health and safety, emergency medical services, and the private sector -- and integrates them into a unified structure.
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From page 91... ...
Thus far, four Homeland Security Centers of Excellence have been established, while a fifth one is forthcoming; they are summarized in Table 5. CONCLUDING REMARKS Securing the homeland from damaging willful acts is a matter of trade-offs: between security and people, in particular, people's privacy, civil liberties, and quality of life; between security and infrastructures, in particular, infrastructures that are highly interdependent; and between security and commerce, in particular, commerce that is dependent on highly efficient and nonredundant processes.
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From page 92... ...
of Wisconsin, Madison North Dakota State Univ. Georgia Institute of Technology Others: Major Food Companies January 2005 Univ.
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From page 93... ...
A DECISION INFORMATICS APPROACH TO URBAN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 93 Center Name Types Stages Decisions Homeland Security Center Willful Preparation Decisions for Risk and Economics Prediction Data Analysis of Terrorism Prevention Analysis Events (CREATE) Response Information Modeling Systems Homeland Security National Natural Preparation Decisions Center for Foreign Animal Accidental Prediction Data and Zoonotic Disease Willful Prevention Analysis Defense Detection Response Information Modeling Systems Homeland Security Center Accidental Preparation Decisions for Food Protection and Willful Prediction Data Defense Prevention Analysis Detection Information Response Modeling Systems Homeland Security Center Willful Preparation Decisions of Excellence on Behavioral Prediction Data and Social Research on Prevention Analysis Terrorism and Recovery Information Counterterrorism Modeling Systems Homeland Security Center Natural Preparation Decisions for the Study of High Accidental Prediction Data Consequence Event Willful Prevention Analysis Preparedness and Response Detection Information Response Modeling Recovery Systems
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From page 94... ...
2003a. Homeland Security Presidential Directive (HSPD)
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