Completing the Forecast Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts (2006) / Chapter Skim
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5 Overarching Recommendations
5 Overarching Recommendations
Pages 98-101
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From page 98... ...
Nonetheless, many products from the Enterprise do not include uncertainty information, or they include it ineffec tively. The deterministic forecasts that dominate the offer Letter, March 4, 954.
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Finding 6:8 To make effective use of uncertainty products, users need complete forecast verification information that measures all aspects of forecast performance. In addition, comprehensive verification information is needed to improve forecasting systems.
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In moving toward Verification measures and statistics need to evaluate all improved characterization and communication of forecast aspects of forecast performance that are relevant for use uncertainty information, testbeds can, for example, play a or improvement of the forecasts. Single scalar measures of critical role in developing the technology of probabilistic pre forecast performance -- commonly presented on NWS Web diction, evaluating ways to communicate such information sites -- are not adequate to meet these requirements.
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From page 101... ...
Given the scope of this challenge, the level of attention to coordinating the estimation and communi effort involved will demand a "champion" within the NWS cation of uncertainty information within NWS and with leadership -- an individual who can effectively organize Enterprise partners. 2See Section .5.
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