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Completing the Forecast Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts (2006) / Chapter Skim
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Summary
Pages 1-4

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 1...
... By partner­ tive probabilistic2 expressions of uncertainty and were actu­ ing with other segments of the Enterprise to understand user ally called "probabilities" rather than forecasts. By the 20th needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, century, meteorology evolved into what was thought to be and utilize effective communication vehicles, NWS can a more exact science and predictions became deterministic3 take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective with no expression of uncertainty.
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From page 2...
... NWS asked the committee to recognize the diverse roles of participants in the Enterprise and the varied needs of forecast users. In addition, NWS requested that the Product Development Incorporating Broad Expertise and committee's recommendations focus primarily on the NWS Knowledge from the Outset mission, but may also address other components of NOAA Finding 2:9 Understanding user needs and effectively com­ or seek to guide other relevant government agencies and nongovernmental entities.
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From page 3...
... Recommendation 2: NOAA should improve its product development process by collaborating with users and Ensuring Widespread Availability of Uncertainty partners in the Enterprise from the outset and engaging Information and using social and behavioral science expertise. Finding 5: NWS, through the National Centers for Envi­ ronmental Prediction (NCEP)
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From page 4...
... Given the scope of this challenge, the level of more effectively use testbeds by involving all sectors of effort involved will demand a "champion" within the NWS the Enterprise. leadership -- an individual who can effectively organize and motivate NWS resources and engage the resources and expertise of the entire Enterprise.
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Key Terms

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  • seasonal climate
  • effective incorporation
  • communicate forecast
  • effective communication

  • numerical weather
  • improve communication
  • leading role
  • comprehensive uncertainty
  • objective uncertainty

  • conveys uncertainty
  • development incorporating
  • forecast providers
  • committee proposes
  • product research

  • effectively incorporate
  • enterprise understand
  • implicitly includes
  • helping nws
  • information sharing

  • nws requested
  • hydrometeorological forecasts
  • deterministic forecast
  • probabilistic forecast
  • regarding forecast

  • validating forecast
  • hydrometeorological prediction
  • weather information
  • nws asked
  • utilize effective


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