Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa Recommendations for Furthering Research (2006) / Chapter Skim
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Part II: Papers -- 2. Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Changing Demography of the Region
Part II: Papers -- 2. Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Changing Demography of the Region
Pages 53-91
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Part II Papers
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Largely derived from the creation of a state social welfare system for older workers in developed countries, the use of the age group 60 and over or 65 and over has evolved to become a relatively standard definition of old age worldwide. Age 60 and over was adopted by the United Nations as the standard definition.
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Census Bureau with those of the United Nations (UN) Population Division.
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. The average annual growth rate of the population age 60 and over in subSaharan Africa is over 2 percent and will increase over the next 50 years to nearly 4 percent.
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Both the size of the 60 and over population and the proportion of the population they account for varies among the countries of the region.2 Eight Countries Have at Least 1 Million People Age 60 and Over In 2005, Nigeria ranked among the top 30 countries in the world on the basis of the size of its population age 60 and over. Nigeria had the largest older population in sub-Saharan Africa, with over 6 million people age 60 and over; South Africa had just over 3.4 million (Figure 2-3)
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5.1 South Africa 4.8 Sudan 4.5 Kenya 3.0 Ghana 2.8 Tanzania 2.7 Uganda 2.2 Madagascar 2.1 Cameroon 1.7 Cote d'Ivoire 1.5 Senegal 1.4 Mozambique 1.3 Burkina Faso 1.1 Niger 1.0 FIGURE 2-4 Sub-Saharan African countries with at least 1 million people age 60 and over: 2030 (number of people age 60 and over in millions)
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In Malawi, the percentage is projected to decrease from 4.2 percent in 2005 to 3.7 percent in 2030. Mauritius 9.5 South Africa 7.8 Lesotho 6.9 Central Africa Republic 6.1 Eritrea 5.5 Botswana 5.3 Ghana 5.2 Nigeria 5.0 Senegal 4.8 Mozambique 4.6 Cote d'Ivoire 4.6 Ethiopia 4.4 Malawi 4.2 Tanzania 4.1 Burkina Faso 4.0 Rwanda 3.8 Zambia 3.7 Kenya 3.6 Uganda 3.4 FIGURE 2-5 Percentage age 60 and over in selected sub-Saharan African countries: 2005.
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For example, the decrease in the proportion age 60 and over in Malawi between 2003 and 2030 masks an increase in the absolute number of people in this age group of around 280,000. Older Populations Projected to Grow in Sub-Saharan African Countries The change in the proportion of the population age 60 and over in most sub-Saharan African countries does not indicate the magnitude of change.
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In the more developed region, the oldest old will account for 22.6 percent of the population age 60 and over in 2030 and 12 percent in countries in the less developed regions. Factors Affecting Population Structure Impact of AIDS Seen in Population Pyramids The extensive spread of HIV started in sub-Saharan Africa in the late 1970s, but it was not until the late 1980s that the epidemic exploded in Southern Africa (Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and World Health Organization, 2003)
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. By 2030, Botswana's population age and sex structure is projected to be dramatically different from what it would have been without AIDS mortality (Figure 2-9)
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. 80+ Men Women 75 -79 Without AIDS 70 -74 65 -69 With AIDS 60 -64 55 -59 50 -54 45 -49 Ages 40 -44 35 -39 30 -34 25 -29 20 -24 15 -19 10 -14 5-9 0-4 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 FIGURE 2-9 Population by age and sex in Botswana, with and without AIDS mortality incorporated into the projection: 2030.
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. 80+ Men Women 75 - 79 Without AIDS 70 - 74 65 - 69 With AIDS 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 Ages 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39 30 - 34 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5-9 0-4 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 FIGURE 2-11 Population by age and sex in Zimbabwe, with and without AIDS mortality incorporated into the projection: 2030.
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. Life expectancy at birth is below 50 years in 28 sub-Saharan African countries.
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Zimbabwe 50 Nigeria 40 30 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 FIGURE 2-14 Female life expectancy at birth in four countries: 1950 to 2005. SOURCES: United Nations (2001)
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AIDS mortality has had an even larger impact on female life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth for women in Botswana in 2005 was estimated at 33.8 years, 44.6 years lower than it would have been without the excess mortality due to AIDS.
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Census Bureau (2005)
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. The UN projects that in Ethiopia there will be around 7.5 million people age 60 and over and the Census Bureau projects that there it will be around 6.6 million, a difference of nearly 1 million people.
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and United Nations (2005)
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and United Nations (2005)
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and United Nations (2005)
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The Census Bureau's figures are often lower than the UN data, a situation that is probably due to the differences in assumptions about the future path of the AIDS epidemic (discussed below)
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TABLE 2-4 U.S. Census Bureau and the United Nations Population Division Estimates and Projections of Numbers and Percentages of Older People for Selected Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: 1990, 2005, 2015, and 2030 Population Age Population Age Population Age 50 and Over 60 and Over 80 and Over Country Total Population Number Percentage Number Percentage Number Percentage Countries affected by HIV/AIDS (epidemic characteristics in parentheses)
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76 TABLE 2-4 Continued Population Age Population Age Population Age 50 and Over 60 and Over 80 and Over Country Total Population Number Percentage Number Percentage Number Percentage Malawi (AIDS -- mid-start, steady growth, high prevalence) Census 1990 9,286,655 857,924 9.2 408,213 4.4 27,867 0.3 2005 12,707,464 1,082,383 8.5 535,960 4.2 34,683 0.3 2015 16,074,826 1,237,020 7.7 646,935 4.0 48,633 0.3 2030 22,030,253 1,677,073 7.6 815,850 3.7 81,753 0.4 UN 1990 9,459,434 821,864 8.7 393,630 4.2 16,041 0.2 2005 12,883,935 1,190,090 9.2 599,583 4.7 40,825 0.3 2015 15,997,810 1,402,139 8.8 760,846 4.8 55,848 0.3 2030 21,686,512 1,823,220 8.4 976,112 4.5 97,728 0.5 Senegal (AIDS -- early start, no growth, low prevalence)
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Uganda (AIDS -- early start, now falling, moderate prevalence) Census 1990 17,074,034 1,361,305 8.0 637,004 3.7 23,301 0.1 2005 27,269,482 1,794,941 6.6 917,712 3.4 70,907 0.3 2015 39,142,167 2,573,062 6.6 1,177,362 3.0 110,004 0.3 2030 67,604,495 4,921,994 7.3 2,242,143 3.3 185,678 0.3 UN 1990 17,757,955 1,476,737 8.3 727,634 4.1 42,637 0.2 2005 28,816,229 2,161,017 7.5 1,102,864 3.8 88,130 0.3 2015 41,918,305 2,648,080 6.3 1,413,514 3.4 127,436 0.3 2030 72,077,803 5,052,488 7.0 2,146,531 3.0 213,187 0.3 Zimbabwe (AIDS -- early start, rapid growth, very high prevalence)
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TABLE 2-4 Continued 78 Population Age Population Age Population Age 50 and Over 60 and Over 80 and Over Country Total Population Number Percentage Number Percentage Number Percentage UN 1990 10,532,123 934,779 8.9 440,043 4.2 20,766 0.2 2005 15,941,392 1,332,437 8.4 628,394 3.9 36,601 0.2 2015 20,946,513 1,783,002 8.5 831,941 4.0 53,078 0.3 2030 30,049,775 2,752,104 9.2 1,318,818 4.4 87,641 0.3 Congo (Kinshasa) (conflict -- 1996-2003, 2.5 million)
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UN 1990 13,429,408 1,438,878 10.7 703,162 5.2 36,550 0.3 2005 19,792,295 2,020,773 10.2 1,026,078 5.2 73,491 0.4 2015 23,512,692 2,427,029 10.3 1,287,419 5.5 109,552 0.5 2030 29,603,641 3,138,367 10.6 1,703,205 5.8 178,798 0.6 Rwanda (conflict -- 1990-1994, 1 million) Census 1990 6,923,738 596,714 8.6 304,205 4.4 17,831 0.3 2005 8,440,820 705,435 8.4 319,140 3.8 27,462 0.3 2015 10,687,704 994,796 9.3 446,765 4.2 36,168 0.3 2030 14,441,869 1,653,133 11.4 778,778 5.4 55,589 0.4 UN 1990 7,096,089 556,337 7.8 258,594 3.6 14,669 0.2 2005 9,037,690 737,815 8.2 356,014 3.9 23,354 0.3 2015 11,261,747 980,829 8.7 464,783 4.1 32,979 0.3 2030 14,367,933 1,542,229 10.7 733,961 5.1 56,673 0.4 Sierra Leone (conflict -- 1991-2002, 50,000)
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Census Bureau (2005) ; United Nations (2005)
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Where they do exist, coverage is variable (the World Health Organization has data from only
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Demographic surveillance field sites, such as those in INDEPTH, potentially provide high-quality data; however, the data are not typically nationally representative.4 Data from demographic surveillance sites have not been used by the Census Bureau or the UN in the estimates and projections discussed in this paper. Migration data are derived from various sources, including the UN (the United Nations High Commission for Refugees, the United Nations Statistics Division, and the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistics Division)
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low, defined as HIV prevalence has not consistently exceeded 5 percent in any defined subpopulation (Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and World Health Organization, 2003)
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Zimbabwe 24.6 [21.7 - 27.8] SOURCES: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and World Health Organization (2004b)
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The adult HIV prevalence rate for the countries in sub-Saharan Africa ranges from 0.6 in Mauritania to 38.8 in Swaziland (see Table 2-5) (Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and World Health Organization,
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. SOURCE: United Nations (2005)
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. In its 2004 revision, the UN Population Division increased the total number of countries with substantial excess deaths caused by HIV/AIDS to 60; of these 60 countries, 40 are located in sub-Saharan Africa (United Nations, 2005)
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(United Nations, 2005; Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, 2004)
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Approximately 2.3 million people died of AIDS in 2004 (Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, 2004)
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Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and World Health Organization. (2003, Sep tember)
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Presented at the Training Workshop on HIV/AIDS and Adult Mor tality in Developing Countries, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat, September 8-13, New York.
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