Defense Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis Meeting the Challenge (2006) / Chapter Skim
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3 New Challenges and Directions for MS&A
3 New Challenges and Directions for MS&A
Pages 17-39
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From page 17... ...
Adaptation can be achieved by drawing on methods of MS&A: networking, adaptability, and embedded systems. derived from operations research, game theory, control theory, These themes lead the committee to make three recommen- and agent-based modeling (see the subsection "Other Methdations, which will be expanded on in this chapter: ods for Representing Adaptive Systems" in this chapter)
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From page 18... ...
During those same 15-20 years, researchers in a number Features mentioned in the intermediate column were of scientific disciplines were making progress in modeling achieved to a significant degree in some 1980s-era systems, complex adaptive systems (CAS)
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From page 19... ...
destruction. Nature of Only objective Plus soft variables Plus soft variables such as variables variables, such as a such as a side's nationalism, ethnic group side's firepower.
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From page 20... ...
Such architectures would probably be quite The vision of a DDDAS-style system also includes a sec- different from the prenetworking architecture, which had a ond major goal, the incorporation of dynamic data inputs simple overlay of particular platforms for sensing and cominto an executing application in order to have the currently munication. Some strides are being made, but the committee most accurate data available for models and other computa- believes that no clear consensus yet exists for how networktional processes.
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From page 21... ...
· Training and operations. Agent-based models coupled The following examples are representative of the current with the techniques of dynamic network analysis have state of network-centric M&S for the major DoD process been applied to address operational problems confrontareas shown in Figure 2.1.6 ing combatant commands.
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From page 22... ...
Some promising directhe continued coupling of agent-based models with the tions are described below, in the subsections devoted techniques of dynamic network analysis (for a fuller dis- to exploratory analysis, multiresolution modeling, and cussion of dynamic network analysis, see the subsection families of models and games. "Social Behavioral Networks," later in this chapter, and · Methods are needed for representing complex adapsee Appendix B)
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From page 23... ...
Whereas sensialso have methods for generating cases throughout the space, tivity analysis typically examines how the outputs of a combe able to use M&S to characterize results from each case, plex model or simulation change when parameters and inputs and then be able to make sense of the results. Figure 3.1 deviate slightly from nominal values, exploratory analysis provides a schematic depiction of the kinds of thinking in typically attempts much broader coverage of the space of volved in developing and evaluating FAR strategies parameters and inputs from much simpler quick-and-dirty The sheer dimensionality of the space of possibilities can models.
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From page 24... ...
In contrast, if one starts with a complex model built cept inputs and/or perform analyses at varying levels of reso- bottom-up, the model may have thousands of inputs (espelution. True multiresolution modeling is very different from cially if one realizes that the individual items in the model's modifying a bottom-up model that requires high-resolution complex databases are all uncertain)
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From page 25... ...
While in tions in cooperation with other organizations, something else some cases the simulations required for the challenges cited would probably happen: increased analytical structuring of in Chapter 2 may be too large or complex to optimize in any human games and exercises. Games and exercises are rarely formal sense and the uncertainties may diminish the utility designed with the idea of building a consolidated knowledge of optimization, in other cases optimization techniques can base.
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From page 26... ...
. For example, in typical traffic routing in a dynamic net Other Methods for Representing Adaptive Systems work, an individual vehicle has origin and destination locations, an origin departure time, and a finite set of sequences The use of multiagent systems (MASs)
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From page 27... ...
That is, although work and used to look at the formation of cliques and other equation solvers are sometimes viewed as antithetical to an relationship groups. Dynamic network analysis adds simulaagent-based solution, it is quite feasible to design an agent- tion to traditional social network analysis and link analysis based system in which some of the agents use inputs from to look at network evolution.
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From page 28... ...
15The America's Army game was built using a commercial game engine and cannot be repurposed to other DoD requirements without licensing, at high cost, the game engine. The Army allows it to be used for other defense A more complete discussion of serious games can be purposes but assesses very high return on investment (ROI)
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From page 29... ...
, re · Stochastic algorithms with provable convergence ferred to below as Network Science, is probably the first at properties under dynamic data inputs. tempt to define both the need for and the substance of a sci · Handling data uncertainty in decision-making/optimience of networks.
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From page 30... ...
luck; changes in the very structure of a social system into the behavior of real-time linkage of models to data due to personalities, deaths, random encounters at special streams, perhaps using Bayesian methods to update times, and so on. If the model is used to find unexpected model parameters with a combination of real and simu- outputs, face validity is a poor judge of model validity.
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From page 31... ...
them to aggregate-level empirical information. For example, Nonetheless, games might provide a new opportunity for if a detailed simulation shows complete military victory and the validation of social behavioral models -- especially if they successful stabilization with only a very small offensive include cross-cultural players, which present a particularly force, then an excellent basis for skepticism is a low-resolu- difficult problem for verification.
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Key tools for this more automated apput it differently, composability is associated with modular proach will be improved data-mining and text-mining techbuilding blocks. niques.
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From page 33... ...
Such tools should include natural lan to facilitate data sharing and analysis in new areas. guage-processing tools for extracting relational data from · Limited ability to handle nontext data such as photo- audio and text sources, Web-scraping tools, automatic on graphs.
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From page 34... ...
examined, and the scope of conditions analyzed can be expanded, often by several orders of magnitude, thus provid- Since data farming has such great potential for mapping ing a stronger basis for decision making. Further, once a the response surface of MS&A tools, the data-farming simumodel has been evaluated as appropriate for the intended lator must be able to reason about the trade-off between the application, the response surface equivalent can be used, precision of results and computation time and must implewhere appropriate, as a rapid model in training situations.
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From page 35... ...
for defense purposes, the MAS Combat System program to choose commodity processors and network analysis techniques must be integrated into tool rather than a traditional embedded processor. This shift to chains -- that is, linked analysis techniques that may include computational power available at all echelons and locations M&S along with other methods.
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From page 36... ...
Because the SOA concept is While the concept of edge computing is not new, the abil- based on the market paradigm of autonomous agents exity of deployed forces to implement it is. In the edge-com- changing items of value, it can be expected to scale more puting model, computational power is pushed to the most successfully than traditional top-down architecture concepts.
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From page 37... ...
With Modeling and Simulation Resource Repository (MSRR) , is the problem compounded by many variations of models in maintained by the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office common use, it is not surprising that M&S practitioners of(DMSO)
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From page 38... ...
2003. "Dynamic network analysis." Dynamic Social Network any way.
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From page 39... ...
2006. Network Science.
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