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4 MS&A and Decision Making
Pages 40-44

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From page 40...
... the responsiveness of MS&A to the needs of those decision To sharpen the sense of conclusions that might be samakers. The broader mission space now facing DoD implies lient and nontrivial, it is often useful to list potential that decision makers will rely increasingly on MS&A, and conclusions and to imagine contradictory conclusions, improving this interface is critical in order to profit from the so as to avoid biases and highlight difficult or controrecommendations of Chapter 3.
From page 41...
... The initial formulation of the models that are too detailed and complex, back to simpler problem was to evaluate five technologies and six sites based models that capture the essence of the complex models yet on 23 criteria using a multiattribute utility approach. A strip details from them that are unnecessary for the final use midanalysis briefing by the Assistant Secretary for Defense by decision makers.
From page 42...
... proaches to decision making, it is important to better under- There are several kinds of uncertainties, each with its own stand the match, or lack thereof, between standard MS&A complexities and challenges for characterization: approaches and the naturalistic way decision makers think. One suggestion is to combine analytic, rational approaches · Environmental uncertainty, and intuitive, deliberative approaches to inform decision mak- · Parameter uncertainty, ing, because neither MS&A alone nor unstructured delibera- · Model uncertainty, and tion without MS&A support is likely to succeed.
From page 43...
... More or less traditional defense zation, ranging from the immediate client for the MS&A planning provides MS&A practitioners with good guidelines activity to the ultimate decision maker. Often there are sevfor presenting assumptions, indicating missions examined, eral layers between the immediate client and the decision displaying cost-benefit trades, and so on.
From page 44...
... job is to present the information in a way that makes choices transparent and to clarify the crucial parameters on which REFERENCES the choice depends (decision makers typically consider many factors other than those considered by MS&A)

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