Energy in Transition, 1985-2010 Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (1980) / Chapter Skim
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9 Risks of Energy Systems
9 Risks of Energy Systems
Pages 422-499
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From page 422... ...
Among the major categories of nsk considered are those relating to industrial operations, to atmospheric pollution, to shortage of water supply, and to change in climate. For each of these, we have considered the risks posed by energy systems based on fossil fuels, nuclear fuels, and solar energy.
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From page 423... ...
(In engineering literature, Mel cycle is usually synonymous with energy cycle, but in official regulatory practice,' Mel cycle excludes mining, operation of waste disposal sites, and transportation.) The complete evaluation of risk depends on the nature and amount of the dangerous element or factor (termed "insult" by some environmentalists)
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From page 424... ...
, and other agencies, based on such acts of Congress and subsequent amendments as the Clean Air Act of 1970 and the Clean Water Act of 1972 (as amended) , the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Act of 1975, the Federal Mines Safety and Health Act of 1977, the Surface Mining Control and Regulation Act of 1977, the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of 1974, and the Resource Conservation and Energy Act of 1976.
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From page 425... ...
The enforcement of the regulation is by administrative and court action, by court action in civil proceedings for an injunction and civil penalties, or by court action in criminal proceedings. Where the risks anse from a utility plant or other facility licensed under a quasijudicial process (such as a nuclear plant licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission)
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From page 426... ...
Since the enactment of the Clean Air Act of 1970, several major policy steps have been taken that will tend to keep permissible ambient air levels of pollutants low or impede their rise. In the case of the new ozone standard, the administrator has set it with consideration for groups of "particularly sensitive citizens such as bronchial asthmatics and emphysematics who in the normal course of daily activity are exposed to the ambient environment."9 This requirement will be of particular importance for the determination and interpretation of epidemiological exposure-effect curves (see "Dose-Effect Curves")
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From page 427... ...
Estimates for the risks of solar, fusion, and geothermal energy cycles are still speculative, although it does appear that many uses and forms of solar energy would be no more hazardous than energy systems now in use and, in some forms, less sow The Risk and impact Panel of this study reported health effects relative to the operation of an electric generating plant of l-GWe (109 watts = I gigawatt (electric)
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From page 428... ...
Fatal Accidents The lowest accidental death rates in the generation of electricity are for light water reactors and natural gas systems (0.2 deaths per GWe-plantyear)
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From page 429... ...
Final Generic Sratemem on the Use of Recycle Plutonium in Mtxed Oxide Fuel in Light Water Cooled Reactors (Washington D C.: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NUREG-0002 or <;FSMO)
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From page 430... ...
The figures are far 1977, h Synthetic liquid fuel Irom coal might be estimated to have a rate equal to that for coal plus an allowance for the conversion process Source National Research Council, Risks and Impacts of Alternative Em rag Systems. Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, Risk and impact Panel (Washington, D C.: National Academy of Sciences in preparation)
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From page 431... ...
With respect to cancer,'9 a study of deaths in coal miners only (the working population) , excluding disabled and retired men, did not detect an excess risk.
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From page 432... ...
For the discussions that follow, it is important to consider the advantages and limitations of the method, particularly in the examples detailed below. Two kinds of toxic agents are generated in energy cycles, artificially radioactive elements (fission products or elements f ctivated by neutron adsorption)
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From page 433... ...
Kato, and c E Land, Monility Experience of Atomic Bomb Survivors, 195~1974 (Hiroshima, Japan Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF TR 1-77)
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From page 434... ...
They illustrate the uncertainty of extrapolating from higher, relatively well-established regions of the doseeffect curve to the lowest regions, which are of greatest interest. The problem of allowing for natural background radiation in the very low dose region, where effects even in very large populations have been undetectahle, is discussed later in this section of chapter 9 under "Fission." Finally, the nature of the population at risk must be examined.
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From page 435... ...
Ott SS- O.- 6() Scp SS Scp 60 Dcc 71 OCt SO OLt ''- OUt 60Sep SS Sep 60 Dee 71 FIGURE 9-2 Leukemia death rate per 100,000 persons during three successive time intervals as dependent on the individuaPs age at exposure to atomic bomb radiation.
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From page 436... ...
may have little to do with health at that time or in the future. Thus, in the case of smoking, even after termination of the habit, significant though diminished increments in death rate occur 10 or more years afterward from chronic bronchitis and emphysema, and from pulmonary heart diseased A cancer dose-effect equation for cigarette smoking has been obtained using data drawn from a 20-yr prospective study of some 34,000 British physicians.34 The equation was based on the age-standardized incidence of bronchial carcinoma in those physicians who began smoking at 16 25 years of age and who had each reported the number of cigarettes smoked per day at a relatively constant rate (but not more than 40/day)
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From page 437... ...
In the case of radiation protection, this has been done by linear extrapolations That is to say, if one cancer death results from a dose of 100 rem to each of 100 persons (104 person-rem) , one death is assumed to follow a dose of 10 rem to each of 1000 persons (104 person-rem)
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From page 438... ...
Source: Adapted from National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, natural Backgrottnd Radiarian in the United Statts (Washington, D.C.: National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP Rep.
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From page 439... ...
Federal regulations to limit radiation exposure had their origin in the recommendations proposed by radiologists and medical physicists through their international Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP)
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From page 440... ...
In the routine operation of light water reactors, the general population is exposed to radiation by emissions into the atmosphere and by the cooling water discharged into local water (Figure 9-3)
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From page 441... ...
Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NUREG-0002, or GrsMo)
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From page 442... ...
the Use o/ Recycle Plutonittm in hliJir~l Oxi~le Fuel i'' Ought ttm n r Coolr~l Rerc tors ( Washington, o.c.: U 5. Nuclear Regulatory commission (Nt REG-0002.
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From page 443... ...
On the other hand, while equally concerned for health, and emphasizing that industrial and other practices should always involve the ALARA principle (as low as reasonably achievable) , the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements is not convinced that its current permissible doses should be radically changed so These doses are also recommended by the international Commission on Radiological Protection 59 and are generally used today throughout the world.
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From page 446... ...
Using a cancer-rate factor of 2 X 10-4 per person-rem, the total cancer nsk would be 0.4 per GWe-plant-year, an estimate adopted by the Risk and impact Panel and about equal to that of the United Nations 6~ Of the principal emissions from a nuclear plant under routine conditions (see Table 9-4) , '4C eventually achieves universal distribution into all living things through the food chain (as illustrated in Figure 9-3)
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From page 447... ...
. Under routine operations, the waste originates as follows Approximately one fourth the charge of nuclear fuel in a light water reactor is replaced each year.
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From page 448... ...
On the other hand, the ambient air quality standards for chemicals relate to possible exposure, whereas the standards for radiation are stated in terms of the absorbed dose in the tissue of interest. In this respect, the practice of radiation protection is more sophisticated.
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From page 449... ...
(See "Research on the Health Effects of Air Pollutants," below.) Whether the standards now in force were set at the
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From page 450... ...
For stationary sources, the use of any fossil fuel will lead to the production of nitrogen dioxide from the nitrogen of the atmosphere and, in the case of oil and coal, an increment from their own nitrogen content. Oil and coal contain sulfur, from which sulfur dioxide will be produced.
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From page 451... ...
. Sulfur dioxide: Of 1355 stations, 2 percent exceeded the primary annual mean; of 2635 stations, 2 percent exceeded the primary 24-hour mean.
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From page 452... ...
are calculated as sulfur dioxide iSO~) and nitrogen oxides (NOB as nitrogen dioxide (NO2)
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From page 453... ...
(0.3) Indusn al processes/' S 4 4 2 0.7 10.1 8.3 Miscellanem~s 1.1 0.1 0 2 5.2 7.5 1977 lOTA/ C |
From page 454... ...
The analysis, which concentrated on particulates and sulfur oxides, was based on county-by-county (not within-county) data and assumed that the increase in use would tend to be directly proportional to current use (August 1977)
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From page 455... ...
This problem is discussed under "Global Climate." Research on the llea/th Effects of Air Po//utants The setting of national air quality standards was a landmark in the history of public health protection in this country. The original standards were selected in 1970 by reviewing the available epidemiological and clinical evidence, deciding on a level at which a minimal effect was observed in man, and setting the standard at a level below it.73 77 For the fossil fuels, the major designated pollutants that emanate from stationary sources are the particulates,75 sulfur oxides,79-3i and nitrogen oxides.S2 94 For the mobile sources96 they are ozone,Y3 carbon monoxide,S7 nonmethane hydrocarbons,63 nitrogen oxides, and as a secondary product, photochemical oxidants.89 Toxicity was judged by excess morbidity, primarily of the respiratory system, by excess mortality occurring during major fog pollution episodes, or on a daily or other short-term basis associated with fluctuations in the sulfur dioxide and particulate levels over the course of a year or more.
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From page 456... ...
were not sophisticated enough, and they no longer accept their own conclusions.9999 One investigatory could show the same associated fluctuations several years later, even though the general level of sulfur dioxide had fallen by a factor of 10. He considers that both mortality and sulfur dioxide levels are fluctuating in response to some other factor.
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From page 457... ...
When one critic redid the analysis, correcting for defects, the original positive effect for sulfate disappeared.'09'09A report issued by the National Academy of Sciences'i° concludes that there is insufficient evidence to establish an ambient air quality standard for sulfate in addition to that for sulfur dioxide. For particulates, one review:': that synthesized the published statistics of 17 major pollution episodes found an excess of I percent in the concurrent mortality rate for each increment of 100 1lg/m3 of total suspended particulates (TSP)
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From page 458... ...
. Dunug transit, the emitted gases (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide)
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From page 459... ...
We favor conducting much of this work outside government laboratories to ensure its independence, and to provide flexibility to draw upon the country's scientific manpower. CATASTROPHES Nuclear power plants, liquefied natural gas, and large dams pose a danger of catastrophic accidents.
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From page 460... ...
Three Mile Island in the case of light water reactors, accidents with dire consequences have not occurred in some 400 reactor-years of operation, but an accident that severely damaged the reactor core did occur at the Three Mile island plant in Pennsylvania on March 28, 1979. It involved a partial failure of the cooling system.
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From page 461... ...
, but the doubts and fears raised by the incident could have far-reaching consequences. WASH-1400 in 1975 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission published the results of a study undertaken to estimate the probability of the great variety of accidents that might occur in the operation of nuclear reactors.
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From page 462... ...
, cancer deaths, and genetic defects. The table illustrates the range of morbidity tstatement 9-lo, by I P Holdren Proof of correctness is far too much to assert for a single data poimt barely mside the range.
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From page 463... ...
The recent report by the Risk Assessment Review Group to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission'42 and the Ford/Mitre Report'43 both make the latter point. The review group of the NRC points out both overly conservative and inadequately conservative assumptions in the probability estimates, and the group concludes that the uncertainty is seriously understated.
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From page 466... ...
Most sensitive of all appear to be the mosses and lichens that may show signs of injury after exposure to sulfur dioxide at levels one third those of the human annual ambient air quality standard. AS The first European Congress on the influence of Air Pollution on Plants and Animals (1968)
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From page 467... ...
agents are likely in this case to come from two different sources sulfur dioxide from an electric utilities plant, photochemical oxidants from vehicular traffic. The apportionment of responsibility, therefore, may likewise involve interactions.
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From page 468... ...
Damage to forests and sport fishing has been estimated at $100 million annually.'66 Comparing various fuel cycles, it appears that the use of ail fossil fuels involves some risk owing to the production of NO2, and the use of those containing sulfur (coal, oil) present an additional nsk.
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From page 470... ...
Carbon dioxide production could become the chief factor limiting the use of fossil fuels. Although quantitatively a minor constituent of the atmosphere (330 parts per million by volume (ppmv)
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From page 471... ...
. Uncertainty about the quantitative role of the biosphere in the overall carbon dioxide cycle adds uncertainty to these estimates,l76 but the Risk and impact Paneli77 and other experts consider the projected trend correct.
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From page 472... ...
A doubling of the carbon dioxide level presumably would have no significant direct effect on human health ~7r The implications of the changes indicated above are potentially great. Increased temperature in the polar regions would lead to changes in precipitation patterns.
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From page 473... ...
WA rER SUPrLY A detailed discussion of the nsk that increased energy consumption will induce a shortage of water, or that the limitations in water supply may curtail the use of energy, is given in chapter 4, largely based on the report of the Risk and impact Panel.'79 Here we note briefly that the water problem may become a major limiting factor of energy availability. The difficulties pertain to mining, to the increased production of electricity, and to the proposed production of synthetic fuels from coal.
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From page 474... ...
Using a less demanding water shortage catenon (critical surface supply) than that employed by the Risk and impact Panel, the laboratonest report concludes that such an increase is feasible, provided that particular attention is paid to the many siting problems that will occur..
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From page 475... ...
The energy-water problem is, in fact, a part of a much broader one of water as a limiting factor in the activities of society. ECOSYSTEMSisi The following review offers brief summaries of the effects of the principal energy systems on ecosystems, based largely on the report of the Ecosystems Resource Group of the Risk and impact Paneled The field of study is still young.
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From page 476... ...
that swim up rivers to spawn, and excess evaporation of water from artificial lakes and the resulting increased salinity, particularly in and regions. Some of these effects can be reduced or mitigated by proper design measures, but in the opinion of the Ecosystems Resource Group of the Risk and impact Panel,l87 the ecological damage per unit of energy produced is probably greater for hydroelectricity than for any other energy source.
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From page 477... ...
Too little is known about feasible methods of exploiting geopressured brines or hot dry rock to judge the ecological effects o. techniques to avoid them.
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From page 478... ...
Large-scale bioconversion or "biomass" is a popular option advocated by proponents of solar energy. To the extent that biomass is derived from organic wastes or from materials grown on special areas of the ocean or unused lands, the ecological effects would be minimal.
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From page 479... ...
The potential problems need to be kept in mind as the technology is developed. In combustion, coal emits air pollutants that affect plant growth and lead to acid precipitation, which affects freshwater aquatic systems and forests (as explained earlier)
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From page 480... ...
SHALE OIL AND COAL-DERIVED SYNTHETIC FUELS The ecological effects of coal-derived fuels are much the same as those for coal itself On the other hand, the production of oil from shale carries with it the threat of considerably more ecological damage than conventional production of oil. The attractive oil shale resources in the United States are located in limited areas of the western states that are ecologically fragile and that are short of water, of which large quantities would be needed.
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From page 481... ...
by as much as 40 percent and thereby reduce the ecological consequences of uranium mining and also of waste disposal. Light water reactors use about 50 percent more water than fossil-ffieled generating plants.
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From page 482... ...
Second, there is another risk that was recognized in that report but that could not be dealt with so extensively without a great deal more industrial experience—the risk of human error, that management may not be adequate under the stress of unforeseen and previously unexperienced circumstances. It is our impression that this second risk contributed to the damage in the Three Mile Island reactor accident.'9i Finally, we note the inherent difficulty of comparing one energy system with another, since some of their important risks may be different and thus not strictly comparable.
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From page 483... ...
If the subjective values are ignored, energy policy may stalemate. The recent incident at the Three Mile island reactor bears on this point.
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From page 484... ...
Finally, we wish to mention four sociopolitical risks that may figure prominently in the deliberation of energy policy and that serve to place other sociopolitical risks in perspective.
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From page 485... ...
Some argue that such measures will be necessary in a world of increasing violence and terrorism. Other energy sources, in particular, dams and storage facilities for liquefied natural gas, are subject to sabotage, as are such nonenergy facilities as supplies of drinking water.
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From page 486... ...
3. FOSSIL FUELS Among fossil fuels, natural gas presents the smallest health and environmental risks in both production and consumption, although there is the possibility of serious accidents in the transportation and storage of liquefied natural gas.
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From page 487... ...
These risks are very small in comparison to the overall incidence of cancer and genetic effects in the general population, and they could be significantly smaller yet if the most important source of radiation in the nuclear energy cycle—uranium mill tailings—were generally better protected.* There are also risks of severe accidents, whose probabilities have been estimated with a great deal of uncertainty, but whose severities could be comparable to those of large dam failures and liquefied natural gas storage system fires.t There are also risks from the disposal of radioactive waste; these are less than those of the other parts of the nuclear energy cycle, but only if appropriate action is taken to find suitable long-term disposal sites and methods.
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From page 488... ...
6. WATER SUPPLY The supply of water may constrain the continued growth of electrical power, the mining and the conversion of coal to synthetic fuels, the production of oil from shale, and the use of coal by industry.
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From page 489... ...
The committee recommends that investigation center on the dose-effect curve (or exposure-effect curve) in the region near and below the present ambient air quality standards.
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From page 490... ...
, (b) , 1978, Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Nuclear Power Operations.
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From page 491... ...
14. Risk amd impact Panel, op cil, chap.
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From page 492... ...
cat ) A definitive review of the subject is being prepared by the National Council on Radiation Protection (in press, 1979)
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From page 493... ...
58 National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, Review of the Current State of Radiation Protection Philosophy.
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From page 494... ...
B Mudd, "Sulfur Dioxide," in Responses of Plants to Air Pollutants eds.
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From page 495... ...
2 and 3. 86 National Research Council, Ozone and Other Photochemical Oxidants, Division of Medical Sciences, Committee of Biological Effects of Environmental Pollutants (Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences, 1977)
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From page 496... ...
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Reactor Safety Study main report and app.
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From page 497... ...
Lewis, Chairman, Repon of the Risk Assessment Review Group to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (Washington, D.C.: U.S Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NUREG/CR 0400)
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From page 498... ...
National Research Council, Enetgy and the Fate of Ecosystems Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, Risk and impact Panel, Ecosystems Resource Group (Washington, D C.: National Academy of Sciences, in preparation)
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From page 499... ...
189. See "Solar Energy," Risk and impact Panel, Risks and Impacts of Alternative Energy Systems, op.
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