Earth Science and Applications from Space National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (2007) / Chapter Skim
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10 Weather Science and Applications
10 Weather Science and Applications
Pages 304-337
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From page 304... ...
To enable major new prediction capabilities, gaps in the observing system, in understanding of atmospheric processes, and in the ability to use observations effectively in models must be filled. The growing global reliance on weather information places responsibility on NASA and the Earth science community to improve Earth science research and operational programs with new space-based and in situ observations that can be used to answer key scientific questions and deliver operational products to provide economic and societal benefits.
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From page 305... ...
The ability to deliver new suites of user-tailored forecasts will require higher-quality satellite observations, their effective assimilation into NWP models, and better communication between data producers and user communities. The value of space-based observations will be greatly enhanced if useful new data applications are quickly made available to the government, the public, and the private sectoran improvement that will require an enterprise-wide effort to dramatically shorten the current 20-year delay between the availability of research results and their transition into applications.
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From page 306... ...
306 1996 / $1.2 1998 / $1.5 2000 / $2.1 1997 / $4.1 1982-1983 / $2.2 1996-1997 / $3.4 L 1992 / $2.0 1998 / $1.7 1991 / $2.1 1995 / $3.6 1996 / $3.0 1989 / $1.5 1994 / $1.2 1993 / $26.7 1991 / $3.5 2002 / $2.0 1999// $1.1 2001 / $1.9 1988 / $61.6 1998 / $1.1 2002 / $10.0+ 2005 / $ 1.0 1993/ $7.0 1999 / $1.4 2003 / $5.0 1993 / $1.3 1999 / $1.7 2003 / $3.4 1996 / $5.8 2003 / $2.5 1999 / $6.5 1980 / $48.4 1998 / $1.1 1995 / $6.8 1994 / $3.7 1989 / $13.9 2003 / $1.6 1997 / $1.1 Legend 1986 / $2.3 2000 / $4.2 1998 / $8.3 1982-83 / $2.2 1993 / $1.3 Hurricane 1990 / $1.4 2005 / $2.0 1994 / $1.2 1995-1996 / $6.0 1994 / $1.2 1998 / $1.1 Tropical Storm 1995 / $3.6 2001 / $5.1 1983 / $4.0 1985 / $2.4 Flood 1985 / $2.2 1992 / $2.4 2004 / $7.0 1985 / $2.8 2004 / $14.0 Severe Weather 1983 / $5.9 2004 / $9.0 2004 / $15.0 2005 / $16.0 2005 / $125.0 Blizzard 1992 / $35.6 2005 / $16.0 Fires 1998 / $6.5 1995 / $2.5 Nor'easter (U.S. Virgin Island)
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From page 307... ...
Those measurement missions are discussed in some detail in the section "Priority Weather Observations and Missions" below. The panel's approach to advance weather science and applications from space draws on a proven foundation of increasingly capable global observing systems, modeling systems, and theoretical and computational advances.
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From page 308... ...
is another striking example of hurricane-forecast uncertainty during the 2005 season. The major numerical models from October 21 agreed on Wilma's forecast track direction and on a landfall on the south Florida coast, but there were major differences in timing (along-track error)
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From page 309... ...
DOD also operates weather satellites and shares the data with the larger weather community. Approved continuations and upgrades of the current satellite system are key factors in preparing for the observations for Earth science and applications from space recommended for the decade 2015-2025.
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From page 310... ...
New challenges are central to the development of a research and observational strategy for weather science for the decades ahead. Key physical, dynamical, and chemical processes associated with severe weather (e.g., hurricanes and tornados)
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From page 311... ...
The conceptual missions include tropospheric wind measurements; all-weather measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, including surface precipitation and sea-surface temperature; an operational radio occultation system for high-vertical-resolution, all-weather temperature and water vapor profiles; aerosol and cloud property observations; an air-pollution monitoring system with high temporal resolution; comprehensive tropospheric aerosol characterization; comprehensive tropospheric ozone measurements; and a suite of space-weather instruments consisting of a solar monitor, an ionospheric mapper, and a system of "space-weather buoys" implemented through a constellation of magnetosphere microsatellites. The GPS radio occultation measurements recommended for characterizing tropospheric weather are also useful for characterizing space weather and climate and are mentioned in that subsection.
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From page 312... ...
science themes • Amelioration of deficiencies in numerical model forecasts during severe weather events • Improved understanding of causes of the high intensity and the track evolution of hurricanes • Development of new suites of targeted-use forecasts in air quality and space weather • Quantification of pollution emissions and determination of aerosol characteristics that affect human health required satellite Observations • Direct three-dimensional winds over the oceans, the tropics, and the Southern Hemisphere, where radiosonde observations are scarce • Integrated sea-surface temperature and high-resolution profiles of temperature, humidity, precipitation along coast and in all-weather conditions • Low-cost, operational profiles of temperature and moisture in the lower stratosphere and mesosphere • Pollution variables across large continental regions (aerosols, tropospheric gases) coordinated with cloud and precipitation measurements tropospheric Winds Mission Summary -- Tropospheric Winds Variables: Vertical profile of horizontal winds Sensors: Wind lidar (preferred)
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From page 313... ...
horizontal winds (preferred option) 1 km vertical Health Water NPOESS Ocean-surface Scatterometer Global 20 km 6-12 hr vector winds Water vapor Molniya imager Northern 2 km IR/WV 15 min during 8-hr tracked winds Hemisphere imagery, apogee dwell 1 km visible imagery, ~25 km vector spacing All-weather Temperature, Microwave array Regional or global 25 km (humidity 15-30 min Climate PATH temperature and humidity profiles spectrometer; and precipitaton Health humidity profiles in clear and cloudy precipitation radar rate)
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From page 314... ...
• Stage I. Because the European Space Agency (ESA) demonstration of a one-component wind lidar measurement with the noncoherent DWL technique does not address all the relevant techniques and technologies needed for the HDWL mission, the panel recommends that NASA support the development and space demonstration of a prototype HDWL system capable of global wind measurements to meet demonstration requirements that are somewhat reduced from operational threshold requirements, as described in a 2001 NOAA-NASA workshop.
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From page 315... ...
This type of system has been used extensively in ground-based Doppler lidars and more recently in a few airborne lidar systems. Because the operational wavelength of the system is in the near-infrared, the system has high sensitivity for making accurate wind measurements in the presence of aerosols, such as in the planetary boundary layer or in aerosol-rich layers in the free troposphere resulting from, for example, dust, burning-biomass plumes, or clouds.
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From page 316... ...
The recently successful assimilation of experimental tropospheric winds over the polar regions that were derived from Terra/Aqua MODIS water vapor imagery (Velden et al., 2005) has led to a renewed push from both the operational and research communities for access to timely high-latitude water-vapor imagery in the post-MODIS era.
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From page 317... ...
. all-Weather temperature and humidity profiles Mission Summary -- All-Weather Temperature and Humidity Profiles Variables: Temperature, humidity profiles in clear and cloudy conditions, surface precipitation rate, sea-surface temperature Sensors: Microwave array spectrometer, precipitation radar Orbit/coverage: MEO or GEO/global or regional Panel synergies: Climate, Health, Water Here, the panel identifies, from the viewpoint of weather science and applications, the current capabilities and projected requirements for fine-temporal-resolution all-weather measurement (in both clear and cloudy regions)
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From page 318... ...
Temperature and Humidity Profiles with Surface Rain Rate All-weather retrievals of air-temperature and absolute-humidity profiles require spectrometric observations of microwave emission along rotational transition lines of oxygen and water vapor. The lower energy transitions, in particular in the 50- to 70-GHz and 118-GHz oxygen complex and the single 183-GHz line for water vapor, are best suited for penetration into clouds.
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From page 319... ...
, a new satellite global observing approach, is a low-risk, inexpensive, high-payoff technology to obtain key information about temperature and moisture profiles in the lower stratosphere and the troposphere above the boundary layer with total electron content in the ionosphere.4 It has the potential to advance understanding of atmospheric thermodynamics, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and ionospheric structure and behavior and to make a major contribution to improvement in regional and global weather forecasting, space-weather forecasting, and climate benchmark observations. Thus, it provides excellent societal and economic benefits for a relatively low cost (about $10 million to $20 million per year, when spread over the 5-6 years of a mission)
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From page 320... ...
The A-CD could be embarked on a free-flyer or be added to the instrument complement of approved missions that have not yet flown, such as GPM and NPOESS. The proposed A-CD instrument complement includes a multiwavelength aerosol lidar for determining the vertical distribution of aerosol properties.
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From page 321... ...
The panel recognizes that NOAA and EPA strategic plans have given high priority to the understanding and prediction of chemical weather with respect to both gases and aerosols. The panel identified three high-payoff missions to produce important measurements to improve the understanding and forecasting of chemical weather with both immediate and long-term societal benefits: a high-temporalresolution air pollution mission, a comprehensive tropospheric aerosol characterization mission, and a comprehensive tropospheric ozone mission (Table 10.2)
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From page 322... ...
322 TABLE 10.2 Weather Panel Summary of Priority Chemical-Weather Measurement Missions Related Planned or Summary of Synergies with Integrated Mission Focus Variables Type of Sensors Coverage Spatial Resolutiona Frequencya Other Panels Missions Air pollution Tropospheric UV-visible, SWIR- Regional (FOV 5 km horizontal less than Climate GEO-CAPE column ozone, IR spectrometer >5,000 km) 1h Health imagers SO2, NO2, formaldehyde, aerosols; vertically resolved CO Tropospheric Aerosol Multiwavelength Global ~150 m vertical, 3 days Climate ACE aerosol extinction lidar; along- 20 km horizontal Health GACM characterization profiles, real track, cross-track GEO-CAPE refractive index, multiangle passive SSA; aerosol polarimeter imager Glory optical depth, size distribution, size-resolved real refractive index, nonspherical particle fraction in troposphere Tropospheric Tropospheric UV-visible Global Various: columns Climate GACM ozone ozone; ozone spectrometer; SWIR/ for ozone, ozone Health measurements precursors; IR spectrometer; precursors in first GEO-CAPE pollutant and future ozone- phase with some trace gases aerosol lidar vertical resolution for CO; <2 km vertical (CO, NO2, CH2O, for ozone, 150 m for SO2)
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From page 323... ...
Long-range transport of ozone precursor gases from other regions or continents can change the initial conditions for pollution formation and make forecasting pollution still more difficult. Space-based measurements of ozone, ozone precursors, aerosols, and other pollutants with high spatial and temporal coverage over North America, with more general coverage globally, can revolutionize the ability to predict pollution episodes.
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From page 324... ...
comprehensive tropospheric aerosol characterization Mission Mission Summary -- Tropospheric Aerosol Characterization Variables: Aerosol extinction profiles, real refractive index, SSA; aerosol optical depth, size distribution, size-resolved real refractive index, nonspherical particle fraction in troposphere Sensors: Multiwavelength lidar, along-track multiangle passive imager with cross-track swath Orbit/coverage: LEO/global Panel synergies: Climate, Health
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From page 325... ...
Because air pollution is highly variable in space and time, measurements of O3, NO2, CO, and aerosols are needed with high spatial and temporal resolution, and this can be done most effectively from geostationary Earth orbit. The measurements will revolutionize air-quality forecasting in a manner similar to weather satellites' effects in revolutionizing weather forecasting.
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From page 326... ...
The aerosol properties to be measured include altitude profiles of extinction, real refractive index, single-scattering albedo with better than 1-km vertical resolution and 20-km horizontal resolution, and backscatter and depolarization with better than 150-m vertical resolution and 20-km horizontal resolution. In addition, aerosol optical depth, size distribution, size-resolved real refractive index, and nonsphericalparticle fraction must be measured through the tropospheric column.
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From page 327... ...
Adequate vertical resolution is critical because of the strong vertical dependence in photochemistry and atmospheric dynamics that contribute to determining the budget of O3 and other pollutants across the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The weather panel identified comprehensive tropospheric ozone measurements as a high-priority mission to provide the needed global vertical distribution of O3, O3 precursors, and other pollutants across the troposphere and into the lower stratosphere.
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From page 328... ...
That will result in improved knowledge of chemical weather processes and better chemical weather forecasts. This mission is a natural follow-on to the current group of Aura and Envisat satellites that are contributing to chemistry and air-pollution investigations of the lower atmosphere.
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From page 329... ...
and the decadal survey committee chose to focus its mission recommendations on the Earth Science Division in NASA, the panel's recommended space-weather missions are not included in the final synthesis mission list. The weather panel strongly believes that the space-weather missions should be funded and urges NASA to consider the panel's recommendations in context with recommendations made in the decadal strategy for solar and space physics (NRC, 2003c)
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From page 330... ...
Many satellite operators took protective measures to prevent problems, but 30 satellites experienced serious problems, including the permanent loss of a $650 million Japanese satellite during one of the events. The radiation from the particles also posed a substantial danger to aircraft operations, causing airlines to reroute flights to avoid the polar regions.
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From page 331... ...
CME closeup with the LASCO C2 instrument. SOURCE: Courtesy of NASA and the European Space Agency.
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From page 332... ...
Those are only a few examples of scientific questions and spaceweather issues that can be addressed through improved satellite observations, such as ones that can be made by the Ionospheric Mapper mission.
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From page 333... ...
Data from low-Earth polar orbiters offer the only way to characterize the high-latitude ionosphere and scintillation environment. Radio occultation instruments in this orbit would also provide a valuable data set for ionospheric modeling.
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From page 334... ...
holds the most promise to work in synergy with the missions proposed here. Radio occultation measurements (vertical profiles of electron density and line-of-sight total electron content)
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From page 335... ...
Full exploitation of the missions identified by the Earth science and applications decadal survey requires not only timely and substantive initial analyses but also reanalyses as models and data-assimilation systems advance. The productive use that the weather science community continues to make of reanalyses that are now somewhat obsolete is a testimony to their essential value.
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From page 336... ...
. transition of science results to Operations and to users: agency collaborations Without the required flow of new weather science research results to users, the vision of the weather panel will not be realized.
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From page 337... ...
2005. Earth Sciences and Applications from Space: Urgent Needs and Opportunities to Serve the Nation.
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