Frontiers of Engineering Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2006 Symposium (2007) / Chapter Skim
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Long-Term Trends in Global Passenger Mobility
Long-Term Trends in Global Passenger Mobility
Pages 85-98
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From page 85... ...
emissions, and evaluating mitigation policies. In this paper, I show that only a few variables are necessary to explain past levels and project internally consistent future levels of aggregate, world-regional travel demand and transport modes.
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From page 86... ...
(hours/capita/day) 2.0 Villages in South-West Tanzania Villages in Ghana Budget Paris Paris Paris 1.5 Sao Paulo Warsaw Japan United States Time 1.0 Travel Singapore 0.5 Palestinian 131 Japanese Cities South Africa Territories Sao Paulo 0.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 FIGURE 1 Average daily travel time as a function of per capita GDP.
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From page 87... ...
The drastic decrease in the cost of air travel in the past decades has contributed to the rising share of that transport mode. THE PAST FIVE DECADES IN WORLD TRAVEL DEMAND To study the historical development and project the future development of global travel demand, we estimated a unique data set of passenger mobility for 11 world regions, covering passenger-kilometers (km)
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From page 88... ...
The biggest increase in PKT, by a factor of more than 20, occurred in the developing world, where the combined growth in per capita GDP and population was largest. However, the "mobility gap" between developing and industrialized regions remains substantial.
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From page 89... ...
THE NEXT FIVE DECADES IN WORLD TRAVEL DEMAND If travel-expenditure shares remain approximately stable, future increases in per capita GDP will continue to cause a rise in PKT. At the same time, the fixed travel-time budget will continue to push travelers toward faster modes of transport.
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From page 90... ...
: the declining share of low-speed public transport modes (top) , the growth and relative decline of the automobile (middle)
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From page 91... ...
Given fixed travel time, future shares of low-speed public transportation modes, light-duty vehicles, and high-speed transportation systems must remain largely within the shaded envelopes in Figure 4. (The target point condition requires that high-speed transportation account for the entire traffic volume in a hypothetical world where the target point can be reached.)
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From page 92... ...
In the industrialized world, light-duty vehicles and high-speed transportation modes will account for nearly the entire traffic volume in 2050 and for roughly equal shares. By contrast, in reforming economies and developing regions, automobiles will supply most of the PKT, followed by low-speed public transportation.
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From page 93... ...
By disaggregating the data set into these two transportation markets and estimating (the functional form of) a nested, discrete-choice model, we could project plausible levels of shares for transport modes over time periods of more than 50 years.
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From page 94... ...
However, despite the growing demand for high-speed transport, travelers will continue to spend most of their travel time on the road. Although automobile travel time will decrease only slightly, the main change in travel-time allocation will be a net substitution of high-speed transportation for low-speed public transportation.
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From page 95... ...
However, even though the energy intensity of urban travel is twice that of intercity travel, it will probably only increase 10 percent or less, because nearly all PKT by automobiles already occurs over relatively short distances. Third, the substitution of air transportation for intercity automobile travel mainly occurs at trip distances of less than 1,000 km, distances at which aircraft energy use is mainly determined by the energy-intensive takeoff and climb stages.
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From page 96... ...
The situation is fundamentally different, especially in developing countries, where the substitution of automobiles for low-speed public transportation is just beginning. Combined with a future decline in vehicle occupancy rates (mainly a consequence of increasing female participation in the labor force)
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From page 97... ...
1980. Regularities in travel time and money expenditures.
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