Science and Technology to Counter Terrorism Proceedings of an Indo-U.S. Workshop (2007) / Chapter Skim
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1 Science, Technology, and Countering Terrorism: The Search for a Sustainable Strategy
1 Science, Technology, and Countering Terrorism: The Search for a Sustainable Strategy
Pages 1-14
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From page 1... ...
government were profoundly transformed by the cold war in response to a military strategy of technological superiority.1 Only the shock of the September 11, 2001, attack on the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and one other unknown target forced a restructuring to meet the threat of catastrophic terrorism.2 This paper addresses the nature of that threat and the role that science and technology can play in mitigating the risk and the consequences of such attacks. The conclusion summarizes the impact on science and technology policy that may result.
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From page 2... ...
In this case the terrorists wish to draw attention to their cause, to inflict maximum damage on the legitimacy of a government, and to inflict major economic penalties on the nation or nations in question. The attack on the World Trade Center by al Qaeda fit this pattern, as did the attack in the Tokyo subway by the Aum Shinrikyo.
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If supported by a government whose military establishment has developed weapons of mass destruction, these skills may be greatly amplified. Any technical strategy for responding to the threat of catastrophic terrorism must address this fact.
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So too are many of the industrial facilities whose destruction might inflict both economic damage and human injury if toxic substances are released. These buildings and factories are largely owned by private businesses, especially in the United States.
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The mechanisms through which the quest for industrial efficiency may threaten industry's resilience to catastrophic terrorism include • single-point failures, where costs of adding redundant elements are high and risks from small perturbations are low, such as ultra-high-voltage transformers in electric power distribution • excessive concentration in the quest for scale economies (concentration of chicken meat processing and distribution in a handful of large firms; aggregation of fuel and passengers in ever larger commercial air transports such as the Airbus 380 with up to 850 passengers, and ever larger ocean liners such as the new cruise ship under construction for Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, designed for 6,400 passengers) • coupling of critical infrastructure systems to leverage their scale economies (dependence of transportation safety on availability of electric power and secure computer networks; the dependence of the electric power system on the integrity and security of computer networks)
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Murrah building in Oklahoma City, tank cars of chlorine being shipped to water supply utilities and other chemical plants, crop dusters that might be used to disperse chemical agents, and fully fuelled aircraft such as used in the September 11, 2001 attack. A more complete list of terrorists' weapons includes • fissile nuclear materials, tactical nuclear weapons, and radiological materials • pathological organisms (human, plant, and animal)
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From page 7... ...
The manner by which many firms responded to the Y2K threat offers some encouragement for this notion. Such a dual-use11 strategy is needed to increase the likelihood that industry will invest in hardening critical infrastructure, to create a more sustainable public commitment to the costs and inconveniences of national efforts against terrorist threats, and to integrate homeland security research and development with the rest of the societal research and engineering base to ensure a fully national effort of high-quality results.
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, West Nile virus, and monkey pox virus • reduction in the number of illnesses caused by infection or poisoning of the food supply • more reliable electric power and other services, especially in the face of hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes • further improvements in the safety standards of the chemical industry • reduced incidence of cyberattacks by hackers and financial systems made more secure against theft and malicious damage • more efficient and timely tracking of goods in transit and billing for their content • reduced risk to fire, police, and emergency health professionals MITIGATION: THE ROLE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY The U.S. National Academies report Making the Nation Safer made more than 130 recommendations for ways to prevent and respond to terrorist attacks.
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From page 9... ...
Many of these systems have vulnerable, unique extra-high-voltage transformers for which there are no spares and thus represent a single-point failure. A solution recommended in Making the Nation Safer is the production of more portable and safely stored midsized transformers specifically designed to be reconfigurable in combination to replace a failed high-voltage transformer.
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Communications and Information Systems In the United States the most urgent issue is to reconfigure first responder communications so that police, fire, and medical personnel can communicate with one another and with the emergency operations centers. Inability to do so greatly aggravated loss of life, especially among firefighters, in the World Trade Center attacks.
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From page 11... ...
Nor has the Homeland Security Institute been given the necessary scope of independent system-level review of the DHS technical priorities. SOCIETAL RESPONSES TO TERRORIST THREATS Making the Nation Safer concludes that public fear and confusion are more likely responses to most terrorist attacks than is terror, that is, a level of fear so intense that individuals are rendered incapable of acting rationally.
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From page 12... ...
Social science can also contribute to a sustainable effort, involving multiple levels of government, with minimal economic cost, and where the perceived conflict between security activities and protection of individual freedom can best be informed and adjudicated. A SUSTAINABLE STRATEGY FOR HOMELAND SECURITY Because major terrorist attacks against civil populations may be separated by considerable intervals of time, there is reason to be concerned that the public will lose interest in the threat, and that none of the organizational or investment needs will be satisfactorily met.
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The compromises to civil liberties that the public will readily accept during a traditional war, which is expected to be of short duration, will not be acceptable in the context of a terrorism threat that knows no end, that offers no victory. Thus, the public must be very alert to the kinds of emergency legislation and exercises of executive authority that may be helpful in the short term, but carry the danger of concentrating too much political power in the incumbent government over an indefinite length of time.
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From page 14... ...
Finally, for the protection against terrorism to be sustainable, more than a civilian benefits maximization strategy is required. The negative effects on civil freedoms from increased authority in the central government must be resisted, since the threat of terrorist attack is indefinite and emergency measures may never be relaxed.
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