Analysis of Global Change Assessments Lessons Learned (2007) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
4 Case Studies of Global Change Assessments
4 Case Studies of Global Change Assessments
Pages 63-98
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 63... ...
Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) , evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the selected past assessments, and identify lessons learned that might guide future CCSP assessment activities.
|
From page 64... ...
. German Enquete The Enquete Kommission brings scientists and Kommission on policy makers together to assess the importance and "Preventive Measures consequences of stratospheric ozone depletion and climate to Protect the Earth's change for Germany among other dimensions of global Atmosphere" environmental change (Enquete Kommission, 1988, 1991)
|
From page 65... ...
Because most of the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products are still under way, that assessment effort is considered last, as a "work in progress." The the Stratospheric Ozone Assessments, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments, Global Biodiversity Assessment (GBA)
|
From page 66... ...
The first two international ozone assessments (WMO 1982, 1986a) were produced independently of and prior to the Montreal Protocol.
|
From page 67... ...
, the Montreal Protocol authorized the establishment of four expert assessment panels addressing: atmospheric science (process assessment) , impacts of ozone depletion (impact assessment)
|
From page 68... ...
The 1985 stratospheric ozone assessment helped develop the approach referred to here and elsewhere as a process assessment. The assessment engaged a critical mass of highly respected scientists worldwide in an intensive process of critically reviewing current advances and later in an intensive scientific peer review.
|
From page 69... ...
One important flaw in the stratospheric ozone assessments is that there has been no consistent treatment of uncertainties across the assessment panels or even within individual panels. Perhaps the most important advance in avoiding the political pitfalls associated with characterizing uncertainties was the development of a measure called "effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine" (EESC, a weighted combination of anthropogenic chlorine and bromine)
|
From page 70... ...
Key Strengths and Weaknesses of the Stratospheric Ozone Assessment. Compared to many aspects of global change, the stratospheric ozone issue is confined to a relatively small number of stakeholders.
|
From page 71... ...
The idea behind the IPCC was grounded both in the experience of the Montreal Protocol negotiations and in TEAP. Since its inception, IPCC has initiated four rounds of assessments, the last being completed over the course of the year 2007 (IPCC 1990a,b,c, 1995a,b,c, 2001a,b,c)
|
From page 72... ...
A team of lead authors is assigned to each chapter of each assessment, with one or two coordinating lead authors, usually representing a developed and a developing country. These teams are accountable for organizing the work
|
From page 73... ...
When the IPCC was first established, participation was strikingly unbalanced. In the second IPCC assessment report for instance, "the percentage of Southern Hemisphere coordinating lead authors, lead authors, and contributing authors in working groups ranged from 5.1 percent (for Working Group I)
|
From page 74... ...
The participating governments then meet in plenary session for each Working Group report to accept the full report and technical summary and approve the summary for policy makers. Coordinating lead authors for each chapter participate in this meeting to ensure that the approved version of the summary for policy makers is consistent with the full report and technical summary.
|
From page 75... ...
Creating valued Products. It is reasonable to say that IPCC assessments exercise substantial influence over policy debates and discussions, despite the fact that the IPCC does not develop decision-support tools per se.
|
From page 76... ...
Building on the experience of the stratospheric ozone assessments, the assessment process of Working Group I is somewhat more developed than that of Working Groups II and III. The Working Group I model is especially effective for conducting assessments in disciplinary fields that are well delimited, that is, in which the key questions are well posed and recognized by both scientists and policy makers.
|
From page 77... ...
• Ensuring continuity might become an issue unless younger scientists are recruited and trained in conducting assessments. GLOBAL BIODIvERSITY ASSESSMENT Negotiations for a convention on biological diversity began in 1988 during a UNEP-led meeting of experts on issues of biological diversity.
|
From page 78... ...
. Engaging the Potential users of Assessment Products.
|
From page 79... ...
NATIONAL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS The U.S. Global Change Research Act (GCRA)
|
From page 80... ...
The 20 regional teams were grouped into nine megaregions, which provided the input to the NAST's synthesis report. The coordination among the various regions, sectors, and the NAST was facilitated by the National Assessment Coordination Office.
|
From page 81... ...
model had 200-year-long simulations with the spatial resolution and features required to examine impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and water. The design of the National Assessment was intended to be an iterative process between the NAST and the regional and sectoral teams.
|
From page 82... ...
efforts to assess climate impacts on the United States in a comprehensive manner. The strengths of the National Assessment suggest that this process had many of the characteristics necessary to produce an effective assessment with some impact on decision making.
|
From page 83... ...
ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT The ACIA was undertaken under the auspices of the eight-nation Arctic Council in response to growing concern about how global warming and a host of other environmental impacts (e.g., ultraviolet [UV] radiation increases from ozone depletion, air and water contamination, habitat alteration)
|
From page 84... ...
. ACIA's objectives were to: • Evaluate and synthesize knowledge and past and present indicators of climate variability, climate change, and UV radiation in the region; • Assess possible impacts of future changes in climate and UV; • Provide reliable information to both governments and peoples of the Arctic region to support policy-making processes; • Recommend policy actions and coping strategies; and • Provide data to the IPCC for use in its future work.
|
From page 85... ...
The results were reviewed by an additional 225 scientists and experts from the eight Arctic countries and other nations. Engaging the Potential users of Assessment Products.
|
From page 86... ...
• There was no cohesive plan for follow-up activities. MILLENNIuM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT The impetus for the MA (2005a,b)
|
From page 87... ...
Although a great effort was made to exchange information among working groups, they did not fully benefit from each other's work. Another scheduling problem was that all of the subglobal assessments had not been completed by the
|
From page 88... ...
The review of the work also followed the IPCC model by including two rounds of outside review, with the responses to reviews in turn being reviewed by an independent group of experts. Engaging the Potential users of Assessment Products.
|
From page 89... ...
The MA produced a large set of products designed for diverse communities. These communities ranged from decision makers involved in international environmental conventions to those working at the local levels where subglobal assessments were performed.
|
From page 90... ...
The rationale for composing an Enquete Kommission with both policy makers and scientists is that scientific findings can be integrated much more rapidly and comprehensively into the parliamentary deliberations. In October 1987, the Bundestag established, for example, an Enquete Kommission to recommend to the executive branch "Preventive Measures to Protect the Earth's Atmosphere." It was to assess the importance and consequences to the country of stratospheric ozone depletion and of climate change in a comprehensive manner.
|
From page 91... ...
The Kommission produced a series of comprehensive documents that assessed the scientific knowledge on stratospheric ozone depletion and the protection of the tropical forest, and climate
|
From page 92... ...
For example, a 1987 report provided a list of possible actions to protect the ozone layer at the national and international levels (Enquete Kommission 1988)
|
From page 93... ...
At the time of this writing there is no plan to integrate across the 21 synthesis and assessment products or to produce an integrated assessment of impacts similar to that of the U.S. National Assessment in terms of scope or sectoral and geographic focus.
|
From page 94... ...
The guidelines state that "the scientific judgment of the lead authors will determine responses to the comments." Once the authors have responded to the review comments, the report is submitted to the CCSP Interagency Committee for approval, production, and ultimate release. Publication and release of the report by the Interagency Committee cannot occur until it is reviewed and cleared by the National Science and Technology Committee (NSTC)
|
From page 95... ...
Engaging Potential users of Assessment Products. The assessment products planned for the CCSP are process and impact assessments, and the actual preparation of the report is essentially led by the expert community with input from government officials.
|
From page 96... ...
For example, the first product has been of high relevance to those most interested in understanding the physical characteristics of the current warming and its attribution, but of little relevance to those concerned with impacts and adaptation. Key Strengths and Weaknesses of CCSP's Assessment Products.
|
From page 97... ...
and it is not clear that the collection of assessment products will provide an integrated view of climate change impacts and possible response options.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.