Ozone Depletion, Greenhouse Gases, and Climate Change (1989) / Chapter Skim
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10 Global Temperature Trends
10 Global Temperature Trends
Pages 85-97
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From page 85... ...
Are changes in ozone an;~peratwe`.~sm~tent that sense? With regard tc, greenhouse gayest, merry indicates that a warm~ng should occur at the surface, but since the oceans add the cryosphere are involved' cih~ges a" Alley to occur on time scales of a-~;ecade or ITIQ1~, whereas flee reuse of the ~tr~at~.ihere to greenhouse gases Ill c~cciur ran a mther shout tinge sold.
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From page 86... ...
The other principal source of temperature data in the free atmosphere is satellite radiance data that exist in useful form (as TOVS data) from about 1979 to present.
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From page 87... ...
The effects on temperature trends that we need to consider include the solar cycle with its variation in ultraviolet flux, leading to stratospheric cooling at the solar minimum; aerosols from volcanic eruptions, resulting in heating within the stratospheric aerosol layer; ozone change, with a decrease implying stratospheric cooling; carbon dioxide, with an increase implying stratospheric cooling; and natural variability due to dynamical processes and internally generated variations such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, southern oscillation, and sudden stratospheric warmings, affecting both temperatures and the ozone distribution. The surface temperature record (Figure 10-1)
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From page 88... ...
~ E KEVIN E TRENBERTH Annual Meon 5 Year :*
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From page 89... ...
AISQ in the Southern Hemisphere, Salinger (1979) has composited New Zealand mean annual and seasonal surface temperatures from 1853 through 1975.
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From page 90... ...
A similar comparison for the 5- to 1-mb layer, based on the NMC analysis and two SSU channels, shows a clear downward trend in temperatures from 1979 to 1986 for all major regions of the world. For the antarctic region, time-series from 1979 to 1986 of 200-mb heights generated in analyses by the NMC and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)
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From page 91... ...
of every individual day and then compiled these anomalies into monthly means for the antarctic stations. For 50 mb at McMurdo Sound, this compilation, when compared with straight averages of the available observations for each month, gives monthly means that differ by up to 12°C for some Octobers.
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From page 92... ...
Heavy curve shows the daily raw means; thin curve is the best fit of combined temporal waves 0 to 4 to the daily means. Period of record is 1961 through 1986.
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From page 93... ...
_ I 92 183 274 365 l -RAW ANNUAL CYCLE 30 MB WAVES 0-4 per, i. ~ FIGURE 10-2 (continued)
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From page 94... ...
, . 5 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 YEARS OCT - 30 - 50 100 -30 - 50 100 FIGURE 10-3 Monthly mean departure of daily temperature from the period normal for three pressure levels at Amundsen-Scott (top)
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From page 95... ...
. A so - 100 95 FIGURE 10-4 Monthly mean departure of daily temperature from the period normal for three pressure levels at Amundsen-Scott (top)
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From page 96... ...
The year-to-year variations in temperature and ozone are approximately parallel to each other, supporting the argument that ozone is the key factor affecting temperatures at this level through solar heating. Syowa 50-mb November temperatures also show a downward trend from about 1978 on.
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From page 97... ...
1988. An evaluation and intercomparison of global analyses from the National Meteorological Center and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.
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