Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Methods and Preliminary Results (2007) / Chapter Skim
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3 Preliminary Assessment of CCSP Progress
3 Preliminary Assessment of CCSP Progress
Pages 35-46
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From page 35... ...
The scores of the cells were then combined and analyzed to draw conclusions about progress in the research elements, cross-cutting issues, and one of the overarching goals. At the request of the CCSP, progress was assessed for the last four years of effort -- the lifetime of the program.
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From page 36... ...
organized by the committee in September 2006. Stakeholders that generate or use CCSP information and products include research scientists; private companies and nongovernmental organizations in the insurance, agriculture, energy, forestry, transportation, water resources, public health, and emergency response sectors; federal, state, and local government agencies; and policy makers (NRC, 2005)
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From page 37... ...
Although not all of these areas have equal potential to improve program results, progress in each would advance CCSP objectives. Atmospheric Composition Good progress has been made in understanding the factors that alter atmospheric composition and how these alterations affect climate, humans, and ecosystems.
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From page 38... ...
Proxy records have expanded our knowledge of past abrupt climate changes, including the relationship between climate variability and droughts or wildfires. Improved understanding has led to state-of-the-art climate models that now reproduce many aspects of the climate of the past century, and simulations of the evolution of global surface temperature over the past millennium are consistent with paleoclimate reconstructions, thus improving confidence in future projections.
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From page 39... ...
A stage 2 evaluation could also gauge whether a synthesis and assessment product targeted specifically at the water cycle might focus agency and community efforts in a way that spurs progress across the entire research element. Land Use and Land Cover Change Good progress has been made in the quantification and characterization of land use and land cover change.
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From page 40... ...
High-quality integrated data sets have been acquired from satellite and in situ measurement programs, and long-term sites for measuring carbon have been established. Coupled ecosystem-climate models for marine and terrestrial systems have advanced as a result of improved understanding of carbon processes and advances in computation.
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From page 41... ...
Second, the effects of climate change on marine and terrestrial ecosystems cannot yet be predicted reliably, perhaps because of shortcomings in coordinated community efforts, computational resources, and/or sustained measurement programs. Human Contributions and Responses Although some gains have been made in understanding stakeholder needs and characterizing the impact of uncertainty on decision making, overall progress has been inadequate given the breadth and depth of issues encompassed by the research questions.
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From page 42... ...
It is these smaller spatial scales that are most relevant for state and local resource managers, policy makers, and the general public. Future projected land cover changes and changes in the distribution of continental water due to dams and irrigation, for example, are just beginning to be included in climate models.
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From page 43... ...
Indeed, a review of the draft CCSP strategic plan recommended accelerating efforts in human dimensions, economics, adaptation, and mitigation by strengthening science plans and institutional support (NRC, 2004)
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From page 44... ...
Most efforts to carry out the two-way dialogue envisioned in the CCSP strategic plan appear to be ad hoc and to rely more on communicating research results -- especially to federal agencies and, to a lesser extent, the scientific community -- than on hearing what others need from the program. NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program has been effective in communicating research results to stakeholders in particular sectors (e.g., impact of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability on water resources)
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From page 45... ...
The CCSP director and agency principals have only a small budget over which they have discretionary control, and they must rely on persuasion rather than authority to allocate or prioritize funding across the agencies. For example, the CCSP appears to have had little influence either on the decisions taken to cancel or delay satellite missions or on what resources should be allocated to expand or upgrade in situ networks, despite the importance of observing systems to achieving CCSP objectives.
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From page 46... ...
Even funding for the Climate Change Research Initiative is disbursed among agency programs. Such fragmented authority can only weaken coherent leadership and priority setting and slow progress in achieving the overall goals of the program.
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