Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Methods and Preliminary Results (2007) / Chapter Skim
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4 Progress Toward the Research Elements
4 Progress Toward the Research Elements
Pages 51-98
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From page 51... ...
Additional review to explain the poor results is required. Recurring themes and trends are discussed under "Opportunities and Threats" for each research element.
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From page 52... ...
Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate variability and change, such as the potential effects of global climate change on regional air quality, are of particular interest. Progress Toward Answering the Research Questions In situ and satellite measurements and field campaigns have yielded rich data sets and improved estimates of physical quantities for all five questions
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From page 53... ...
Similarly, gains in our understanding and representation of many key physical processes have been substantial, although large uncertainties about the indirect effect of aerosols on climate, poor quantification of aerosol solar absorption, and the absence of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in coupled models remain major shortcomings. Great uncertainties also remain in our knowledge of the radiative forcing of non-CO2 gases (e.g., tropospheric ozone)
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From page 54... ...
Good progress has been made on radiative forcing and sources and sinks of some greenhouse gases, such as methane, but uncertainties remain for other greenhouse gases, limiting progress on decision support. Good measurements exist of most non-CO2 greenhouse gases (e.g., nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons [CFCs]
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From page 55... ...
Understanding of the heterogeneous chemistry from local to global scales is still not sufficient to include in global models and make predictions of future changes. Finally, uncertainties remain about longer-term trends (e.g., for tropospheric ozone)
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Resulting field programs engendered by the CCSP have yielded good results, and fair progress has been made in understanding processes that link long-term (several decades) changes in temperatures and circulation with ozone depletion.
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The future degradation of the climate data system is a problem for most of the CCSP science questions. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE Much has been learned over the past few decades about the Earth's climate system components, the interactions among them and their variability, and how and why the climate system is changing.
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From page 58... ...
Progress Toward Answering the Research Questions Progress has been made in addressing the five questions under this research element, although accomplishments have been uneven. Better, longer, and more data sets have contributed to improved documentation and attribution of climate variability and change and to better understanding of many key climate processes (e.g., the global carbon cycle)
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Investments in observation systems have paid off with improved understanding and reduced uncertainties about feedbacks, although progress has been uneven and contributions to risk management and decision support have been inadequate. The response of global temperature to a given small forcing is proportional to the climate sensitivity.
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Good progress has been made in improving the quality of climate model simulations of variability and change, although uncertainties remain, especially on local and regional scales, and inadequate progress has been made in using model predictions to support decision making. The best climate models encapsulate the current understanding of physical processes involved in the climate system, their interactions, and the performance of the system as a whole.
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From page 61... ...
CCSP management has been effective in marshaling the necessary resources to help answer this question. Good progress has been made in documenting abrupt climate change, but predictive capability remains low and the impact on decision making has been minimal.
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From page 62... ...
is needed to anticipate potentially large and abrupt changes in the climate system. The mechanisms of past abrupt climate changes are not yet fully understood, and climate models typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes.
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. Knowledge of wildfires associated with climate variability and change is also beginning to inform forest management (Morehouse et al., 2006)
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This question was difficult to assess, but it is clear that progress has been inadequate. A different formulation (e.g., How can information on climate variability and change best be communicated to intermediaries who provide tailored information to the public?
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The CCSP water cycle research element focuses on (1) quantification of the water cycle through observed and modeled budgets at local to global scales; (2)
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Progress has been mixed, with good advances in data collection, fair progress on predictability studies, and inadequate progress in understanding the impact of managed systems on the water cycle. Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)
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Q 5.2. How do feedback processes control the interactions between the global water cycle and other parts of the climate system (e.g., carbon cycle, energy)
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Q 5.4. What are the consequences over a range of space and time scales of water cycle variability and change for human societies and ecosystems, and how do they interact with the Earth system to affect sediment transport and nutrient and biogeochemical cycles?
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However, it seems likely that most water authorities and management offices have little knowledge of what the CCSP can offer. Opportunities and Threats Future progress in the water cycle research element would be fostered by stronger leadership and interagency coordination.
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From page 70... ...
A synthesis and assessment product could also provide a vehicle for communicating research results to water resource managers and policy makers. LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE The land use and land cover change research element was created under the CCSP in 2002.
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spatial resolution. The availability of satellite data has given the program considerable momentum and has fostered good progress in the study of land cover change, global mapping of land cover types, and regional mapping of local changes.
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Fair progress has been made toward understanding the causes and process of land use and land cover change. Future progress will require greater emphasis on understanding the process of change in different physical and social environments, and the development of general rules that can be used in land use modeling studies.
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From page 73... ...
Fair progress is being made toward future projections of land use change, but methods for modeling land use change could benefit from the development of community standards and best practices. Improved understanding of the processes of change is enabling predictive modeling of land cover changes (e.g., Moran and Ostrom, 2005)
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From page 74... ...
Although fair progress has been made toward answering this question, a wider range of impact studies focusing on human health and vulnerability is needed. Addressing this question requires significant interaction among CCSP research elements.
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Opportunities and Threats Future progress in the land use and land cover research element is likely to be slow because of relatively low funding levels and the inability of the program to date to direct resources to strengthen the social science aspects of the research (e.g., process studies, research on societal adaptation)
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From page 76... ...
. CARBON CYCLE The carbon cycle research element seeks to quantify the exchanges of carbon among the atmosphere, biosphere, and ocean and learn how these flows change as a result of human activity.
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. North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle (synthesis and assessment product 2.2; CCSP, 2007b)
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, major uncertainties remain because of the relatively sparse nature of stations in the observation network, uncertainties associated with the transport models (Baker et al., 2006) , and problems with the resolution of meteorological data needed for inversions (Denning et al., 2005)
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Q 7.2. What are the magnitudes and distributions of ocean carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to centennial time scales, and what are the processes controlling their dynamics?
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The first requires coordination with the land use and land cover research element (see "Land Use and Land Cover Change" above)
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From page 81... ...
Although fair progress has been made in linking changes in regional and global rates of CO2 accumulation to climatic anomalies such as ENSO, understanding of the processes underlying some of these relationships is poor and limits our ability to predict factors that will dominate in the future. The same issues raised in questions 7.1 and 7.2 -- especially with respect to predictability, synthesis and assessment, and decision support -- apply to this research question.
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From page 82... ...
Improving predictions of future carbon dioxide levels requires not only an understanding of land and ocean carbon feedbacks to climate as incorporated in coupled models, but also improved ability to predict carbon sources from fossil fuel and land cover change based on human behavior. A community effort to build models with predictive capability into the next century that specifically couple carbon cycle and climate models is under way and provided input to the recent IPCC report (Fung et al., 2005)
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From page 83... ...
and the ecosystems and land use and land cover research elements. Opportunities and Threats Although good progress has been made toward balancing the global carbon budget, the fate of a portion of the CO2 added to the atmosphere by fossil fuel burning and deforestation remains unresolved.
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From page 84... ...
The CCSP ecosystem research element aims to provide a scientific basis for the development of policies and procedures that will protect the goods and services derived from marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Progress Toward Answering the Research Questions Progress has been made in addressing aspects of all the overarching research questions that guide the ecosystem research element.
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From page 85... ...
ecosystems has been inadequate. Progress will also depend on results of research being undertaken under the carbon cycle research element and on long-term in situ and satellite-based remote sensing capabilities.
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For example, the National Marine Fisheries Service uses plans that link fisheries management to climate variability (Murawski and Matlock, 2006)
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Progress in both research elements could be fostered by a more coordinated approach. HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE The CCSP currently manages research on human dimensions, decision support tools, and human health effects of climate change together.
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From page 88... ...
Moreover, the inclusion of research on the effects of ozone on health and systems engineering aspects of decision support resources in the budget makes it harder to determine the amount of resources being invested in human dimensions research. Consequently, to evaluate progress in the human contributions and responses research element, the committee had to obtain separate programmatic and budget information from the CCSP (see Appendix B)
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From page 89... ...
However, many research gaps remain, and both the size of the human dimensions community and the level of available funding seem inadequate to carry out the research necessary to answer all of the research questions.
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. In addition, NOAA-sponsored research on the economics and human dimensions of climate variability and change has identified potential impacts of climate-related phenomena on different sectors (e.g., water, agriculture, coastal areas)
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From page 91... ...
Each of these four programs has made fair progress in understanding and characterizing uncertainties related to both physical and institutional processes affecting and being affected by global climate change. Some studies have addressed the need to incorporate information from climate science into decision making and how to evaluate predictability and predictive capabilities of different physical and socioeconomic models, but this work is at an early stage.
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From page 92... ...
. Few agencies have programs dedicated to human contributions and responses, and CCSP funding devoted especially to human dimensions is significantly less than funding devoted to most of the other research elements (Table 1.1)
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From page 93... ...
It would also provide an empirical base for disaggregated analyses of the human consequences of climate variability and change and of the potential benefits of various adaptive and mitigative responses. Finally, future evaluations of progress would be greatly facilitated if the CCSP reported accomplishments on human dimensions research separately from accomplishments on decision support activities and health effects research.
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From page 94... ...
Thus, focus area 1.4 is a key component of the CCSP and involves several research questions. Focus area 1.4 is addressed by five research elements -- including atmospheric composition, climate variability and change, water cycle, land use and land cover change, and human contributions and responses -- and the modeling cross-cutting issue.
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From page 95... ...
However, continued progress is seriously threatened by the loss of climate instruments on NPOESS and other satellites. The research part of this topic is covered under questions 4.2 and 4.4 of the climate variability and change research element.
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From page 96... ...
However, research efforts to date have focused on understanding changes that will occur in ecosystems as a result of climate change. Scientific questions regarding the response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcing cannot be addressed with traditional physical climate models (e.g., those that do not include interactive chemistry, the carbon cycle, or interactive aerosol models)
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From page 97... ...
Understanding of the forcing factors that affect climate -- and vice versa -- has progressed steadily, with the greatest gains in atmospheric composition and, to a lesser extent, the water cycle. Inadequate progress has been made in understanding ecosystem or human feedbacks and developing coupled models capable of addressing natural and anthropogenic forcing.
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