Research and Plans for Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census Interim Assessment (2007) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 5-18
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From page 5... ...
The work of the Panel on Correlation Bias and Coverage Measurement in the 2010 Census is the latest effort of the NRC to assist the Census Bureau as it plans the 2010 census. The panel is studying how to adapt census coverage measurement1 to assess coverage better and to guide improvements in census processes.
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The purpose of the Census Bureau's coverage measurement programs for the 1950, 1960, and 1970 censuses was primarily to inform users as to the quality of census coverage. Census Process Improvement In addition to providing information to users about census quality, coverage measurement programs were also used to identify components of census processes that, if improved, could potentially reduce net coverage problems in the next census.
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This use of coverage measurement information was also proposed prior to the 1990 and the 2000 censuses. However, adjustment has proved to be controversial, and to date adjusted counts have not been used for any official purposes, with the exception that the population controls for the Current Population Survey (and possibly some other surveys)
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From page 8... ...
. Even before the introduction of DSE, the Census Bureau began using demographic analysis to estimate net coverage error for demographic groups classified by age, sex, and black or nonblack.3 Demographic analysis constructs an estimate of the population count at the census date for comparison with the census count using demographic accounting relationships.
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E Revision II counts, the final effort at coverage measurement in 2000, would not be used to produce intercensal population estimates.
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PLANNING FOR 2010 Shift in the Purpose of Coverage Measurement The 2000 census demonstrated the great time and effort required to carefully collect data from the postenumeration survey, follow up the nonmatching cases, compute adjusted counts, and assess their quality in comparison to the census counts. On the basis of that experience, the Census Bureau concluded that there would not be the time needed to perform coverage measurement for adjustment of the counts used for redistricting by the mandated date of April 1, 2011, one year after census day (see, e.g., National Research Council, 2004b: 267)
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From page 11... ...
Given the new focus on estimation of rates of census component coverage error and on developing a feedback loop in support of census improvement, while keeping in mind that all three goals of coverage measurement above remain important, three questions are raised that this panel has considered and will address more completely in its final report: 1. How well can the goal of census component error measurement be met using an approach that was initially developed to measure net coverage?
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design for addressing both the previous goal of estimating net coverage and the new goal of measuring components of census coverage error. • First and foremost, inadequate information collected as part of the census and the PES allowed too many mistakes in the A.C.E.
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INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVEMENTS IN THE 2010 COVERAGE MEASUREMENT PROGRAM In response to the change in the objectives for coverage measurement in 2010, the various limitations of A.C.E. to address those objectives, and the changes currently planned for the 2010 census in relation to the 2000 census, the coverage measurement staff of the Census Bureau, and decennial staff in general, has undertaken several important initiatives likely to improve the coverage measurement program for 2010.
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From page 14... ...
The Census Bureau has been developing an alternative approach to net coverage measurement by replacing measurement at the poststratum level of average match rate and average correct enumeration rate with logistic regression models of both match and correct enumeration probabilities at the level of the individual person. This approach accommodates more predictive factors than poststratification, and it allows use of continuous predictors.
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From page 15... ...
At the Census Bureau's request, the National Academies established the Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias in the 2010 Census to examine coverage measurement plans for 2010. The panel's charge reads as follows: This project involves a study of four issues concerning census coverage estimation with the goal of developing improved methods for use in evaluating coverage of the 2010 census.
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The Census Bureau is interested in improving the DSE methodology to address the above issues to the extent possible, to develop improved methods for estimating coverage of the 2010 census both in regard to net errors and gross errors. We interpret the charge to the panel as follows: to evaluate the Census Bureau's plans and to provide suggestions and recommendations for changes and additions to those plans, in determining how coverage measurement and related activities might be used to measure the components of census coverage error and thereby assess the role of the various census component processes in contributing to coverage error.
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From page 17... ...
Furthermore, all the data retained from the 2010 census -- not only the postenumeration survey and matching results, but also data collected by the various management information and quality assurance systems that monitor census processes -- could affect the coverage measurement models that could be developed. Therefore, the panel will also advise on what data should be retained from the 2008 census test and the 2010 census.
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From page 18... ...
for measuring component census errors and describing differences between the 2010 and 2000 census plans as well as plans for the coverage evaluation program in the 2006 test census. Next it describes the major topics of the current coverage evaluation research program, including measuring components of census error, models for net coverage error, contamination due to the extension of the CFU interview, the sample design for the CCM postenumeration survey, and use of the E-StARS administrative records system in coverage measurement.
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