Coal Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy (2007) / Chapter Skim
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2 Projections for U.S. and World Coal Use
2 Projections for U.S. and World Coal Use
Pages 24-42
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coal production and use for a range of scenarios developed by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (DOE-EIA) and the pacific Northwest National Laboratory (pNNL)
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ANd woRLd CoAL USE u.S. Energy Information Administration Projections A principal source for projections related to energy use in the United States is the Annual Energy outlook (AEO)
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CoAL RESEARCh ANd dEvELoPmENt The EIA is precluded from analyzing alternative policy scenarios as part of the AEO. for example, the AEO does not include any cases in which U.S.
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These cases explore different levels of reduction in GHG intensity (defined as GHG emissions per unit of gross domestic product) , beginning with the level proposed by the National Commission on Energy policy (NCEp, 2004)
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CoAL RESEARCh ANd dEvELoPmENt FIguRE 2.2 projections by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for U.S.
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Region 2000 B Million Short Tons 1600 East West 1200 Total 800 400 0 Ca Ca Hi Re 20 gh 04 p p fe -T -T r O& Ac en ra ra de de ce tu G a Pr 4 3 Ca l ice -L se ow ot he r FIguRE 2.3 projections by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for U.S.
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However, under the Cap-Trade 4 scenario, coal's share of electricity production declines to 37 percent in 2020 and TABLE 2.3 Actual and projected Coal Imports and Exports for Selected EIA Scenarios Actual 2004 2020 2030 Scenario Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Cap-Tradea 0.79 1.25 1.25 0.72 1.19 0.66 AEO Reference Casea 0.79 1.25 1.31 0.46 2.37 0.40 AEO High O/Gb 0.79 1.25 1.61 0.46 2.69 0.40 NOTE: All values in quads (quadrillion Btu)
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Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Projections Given the importance of carbon constraints and fuel prices to projections for future coal use revealed by the EIA scenarios, the committee presents recent findings from pacific Northwest National Laboratory that project future U.S. coal use for a longer period of time under different policy scenarios.
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. INTERNATIONAL COAL PRODuCTION PROjECTIONS This section summarizes results of scenarios developed by a number of different organizations to estimate future international coal production and use.
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for pNNL scenarios. SOURCE: Marshall Wise and James Dooley, Joint Global Change Research Institute, pacific Northwest National Laboratory, personal communication, 2007.
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is an independent organization that draws on national studies and data from member countries to project worldwide energy consumption. Recently, it developed six scenarios for future global primary energy supply and the associated carbon dioxide emissions (expressed as emissions of carbon)
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Energy Information Administration for world coal use in 2010, 2020, and 2025 for the reference case and for high- and low-economic-growth scenarios.
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International Energy Agency Projections The International Energy Agency (IEA) regularly monitors global energy developments and periodically publishes a world Energy outlook (WEO)
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figure 2.8 shows the resulting effect on global CO2 emissions, and figure 2.9 shows the impacts on global coal use relative to the WEO reference case scenario. TECHNOLOGIES Advanced End-Use H2 Fuels Renewable Nuclear CCS Biofuels Efficiency Map Low Renewables Pessimistic Low Nuclear Pessimistic No CCS No CCS Low Efficiency Pessimistic TECH Plus Optimistic Optimistic Optimistic Optimistic FIguRE 2.7 Overview of scenario assumptions for the International Energy Agency ACT and TECH plus scenarios compared to the ACT Map scenario.
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. In the IEA Baseline Scenario, world coal use in 2050 is nearly three times 2-9 greater than in 2003, and its share of world energy demand grows from 24 percent in 2003 to 34 percent in 2050.
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. IpCC comparison of results from two large-scale models used to project future world energy trends shows that both models project future coal use to remain relatively constant, with increasing use of CCS over time, for a policy scenario aimed at stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 550 parts per million by volume (approximately twice the pre-industrial level)
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FINDINgS -- PROjECTIONS FOR FuTuRE COAL PRODuCTION AND uSE While many factors will affect the future use of coal in the United States and globally over the next 25 years or more, recent analyses of coal production and use over the next few decades indicate the following key conclusions: • projections show that future coal use depends primarily on the timing and magnitude of potential regulatory limits on CO2 emissions, on the future demand for electricity, on the prices and availability of alternative energy sources for electric power generation, and on the availability of carbon capture and sequestration technology. • Over the next 10 to 15 years (until about 2020)
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AEO (1989) Trendline 800 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1300 B 1990-1995 1200 Production (million tons)
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Again, however, there is great uncertainty in global coal use projections, especially beyond about 2020.
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