Metropolitan Travel Forecasting Current Practice and Future Direction -- Special Report 288 (2007) / Chapter Skim
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Summary Findings and Recommendations
Summary Findings and Recommendations
Pages 1-14
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To this end, the MPOs estimate future travel demand and analyze the impacts of alternative transportation investment scenarios using computerized travel demand forecasting models. These models are used to estimate how urban growth and proposed facilities and the associated operational investments and transportation policies will affect mobility and the operation of the transportation system.
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A few metro politan areas have adopted or are experimenting with the use of more advanced travel models based on tours of travel or the representation of human activity, unlike the four-step approach, which is based on single trips. These more advanced models can provide a better representation of actual travel behavior and are more appropriate for modeling policy alternatives and traffic opera tions.
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Travel forecasting tools developed and used by an MPO should be appropriate for the nature of the questions being posed by its constituent jurisdictions and the types of analysis being conducted. Shortcomings of Current Models and Modeling Practice The demands on forecasting models have grown significantly in recent years as a result of new policy concerns.
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This is par ticularly true of hourly directional traffic counts to support model validation, current household travel data rich enough to support market segmentation
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• Quality control: Organizing a metropolitan travel forecasting process is a complex undertaking requiring detailed network coding, use of extensive traffic and passenger volume data, and proper integration of various models and submodels. Many opportunities to introduce errors arise.
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The Travel Model Improvement Program (TMIP) has the potential to greatly facilitate the adoption of advanced modeling practices and the improvement of current practices.
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One would expect appropriate corresponding support for models used to provide critical information on how this large investment should be planned and implemented. Recent Advances in Modeling Practice Through the TRANSIMS initiative and other efforts by university researchers and consultants, advanced travel models are being developed that are based on a more comprehensive understanding of the activities of households and a more complete representation of network performance that accounts for the details of congested operations throughout the day.
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The committee therefore recommends development and implementation of new modeling approaches to demand forecasting that are better suited to providing reliable information for such applications as multimodal investment analyses, operational analyses, environmental assessments, evaluations of a wide range of policy alterna tives, toll-facility revenue forecasts, and freight forecasts, and to meeting federal and state regulatory requirements. The committee acknowledges evi dence that current practice is also deficient in many respects and that introduc ing advanced models will not in itself improve that practice.
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The FTA Summit tool can also be employed for model checking. MPOs experimenting with or fully implementing advanced modeling practices should document their experiences, including costs, advantages, drawbacks, and any transferable data or model components.
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They could be active partners in garnering a small takedown of federal MPO funds and could provide supplemental support, perhaps through the National Cooperative Highway Research Program of the state departments of transportation. • Support for model user groups.
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New funds would be used to help build MPO institutional capacity; develop and improve analytical methods derived from federal requirements; and support mechanisms designed to ensure the quality of technical analyses used to inform decision making and meet local, state, and federal program requirements. TMIP could also support MPO peer reviews, outreach activities, a handbook of practice (see below)
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The committee recommends that in their planning guidance and plan ning regulations, USDOT, FHWA, FTA, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency allow MPOs substantial flexibility in their travel demand modeling practices, recognizing that one size does not fit all, and that unnecessary technical planning requirements could inhibit innova tion and advanced practice.
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The ability of advanced models to handle complex planning issues beyond the scope of current models should be evaluated as well. MPOs, together with the federal government and the states, should examine in detail data requirements for validating current travel forecasting models, meeting regulatory requirements, and developing freight models and advanced travel models.
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