Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution Challenges for China and the United States (2008) / Chapter Skim
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2 Energy Resources
2 Energy Resources
Pages 25-60
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From page 25... ...
It is not intended to be an authoritative energy review, but the context is useful for comparing the resources that each country possesses, some of the factors at play which influence energy prices and consumption, and the dynamic tensions between a desire for energy security and clean air. MAJOR ENERGY RESOURCES The United States and China are no longer energy independent, and in a globalized economy, one country's energy consumption can have a dramatic impact on the other's policy, as well as on world prices.
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From page 26... ...
A projected increase in coal consumption signals a need for action to address potential increases in SO 2 and CO2 emissions. Emissions are generally estimated using statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA)
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Though it is associated with rural use, it does play a significant role in China in urban use (e.g., wood-burning stoves) and perhaps more significantly, activities such as agricultural burning may often take place at or near the urban periphery and subsequently affect urban air quality.
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Refineries are typically located near crude oil production sites, or alterna tively, where demand for refined petroleum products is located (e.g., near major metropolitan areas) , which is another challenge to building new refineries.
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Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel account for most of the increase in petroleum consumption. By 2030, oil imports are forecast to increase to more than 17 MM bpd (EIA, 2006c)
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However, for coal gasification plants, emissions are normally well within the ranges of NG and are within Best Available Control Technology limits -- a benchmark in the permitting process.b aIf the gasification facility is financed and constructed as a separate fuel-gas supply e ntity, the overall cost of the produced fuel gas can be as low as 35-40 percent of current NG p rices. bA prime consideration in the conversion decision is the accessibility and availability of coal supply.
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From page 31... ...
Nuclear Nuclear energy is the second-largest source of electricity in the United States after coal and is the largest emission-free source of electricity. The United States has more than 100 licensed nuclear plants that have a capacity of more than 97,000 megawatts (MW)
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Finally, the cost-competitiveness of the proposed new nuclear power plants is not clear. China Coal Coal is much more abundant than other fossil fuels in China (see Figure 2‑2)
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As a result of this restructuring, the number of small coal mines decreased from 85,000 in 1996 to 24,000 as of 2006. The general trend has been one of consolidation, in order to expand the scale and scope of coal mining operations.
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Furthermore, the increasing cost of transporting energy resources has driven up their prices. In 2004, the price of coal in the Shanxi Coal Mine was 140 RMB/ton, with railway freight charges of 0.15 RMB/t-km and highway freight charges of 0.45 RMB/t-km.
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From page 35... ...
At the same time, as a result of rising prices in the mining industry, coupled with railroad restrictions on coal transportation, China's coal imports totaled 26 million tons (0.79 EJ)
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Petroleum Because of progress in drilling technology and increasing petroleum demand, China's oil production is increasing. The Chinese oil and gas region is divided
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From 1998 to 2004, capacity increased about 120 million tons, and over this same period, refined petroleum production increased 8.3 million tons annually. In 2004, gasoline, kerosene, and diesel made up 168 million 7 6 Remaining recoverable reserves Already produced 5 Billion metric tons 4 3 2 1 0 Eastern Western Central Offshore Nationwide FIGURE 2-5 Recoverable petroleum resources, by location.
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200 150 2-6 Total imports Million metric tons Net imports 100 50 0 Exports -50 1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 FIGURE 2-7 Petroleum imports and exports. SOURCE: General Administration of Customs, China.
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From page 39... ...
However, in order to solve the energy shortages in eastern China, the Zhujiang Delta, the Yangtze River delta, and the Fujian coast are planning to introduce LNG in quantities between 17 and 27 million tons annually. Construction is under way on LNG receiving terminals in Guangdong and Fujian provinces. Negotiations have also been taking place with Russia to construct a natural gas pipeline through China, which could ultimately link Russia to South Korea as well.
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CONSUMPTION AND ENERGY FORECASTS The following sections provide a brief overview of the major sources of energy consumption in each country, as well as corresponding forecasts.
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coal consumption and production increased in tandem over the past half-century: from 500 million short tons (13.7 EJ) per year (TPY)
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30 History Forecast 25 Millions of barrels per day 20 15 10 5 Motor Gasoline Jet Fuel Distillate Fuel Residual Fuel Other 0 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 FIGURE 2-10 Refined petroleum products supplied by fuel: history and forecast.
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From page 43... ...
Second, demand increased based upon these optimistic forecasts as power plant construction and space heating steadily turned to natural gas as the preferred fuel, and demand for natural gas has steadily increased since 2000. Third, the supply of natural gas from traditional major sources is showing signs of increasing strain.
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Figure 2-15 shows the history and forecast for net generation of electrical power by fuel type. These figures illustrate the following:
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SOURCE: EIA, 2006a. 2-13 Other 0.5% Nuclear 19.3% Petroleum 3.0% Coal 49.7% Renewables 8.8% Natural Gas 18.7% FIGURE 2-14 Generation of electrical power by fuel type, 2005.
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electricity sales by sector, 1949 to 2030. It illustrates the following: • The industrial sector consumed more electricity than any other sector until the mid-1990s, at which time residential consumption exceeded industrial consumption.
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From page 47... ...
energy consumption in forecasts the commercial sector by source, and suggests that • Use of electricity and natural gas will continue to increase at the expense of coal and petroleum. • System energy losses are, and will continue to be, larger than energy use.
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SOURCE: EIA, 2006a. 2-17 "Other uses" include service station equipment, ATMs, telecommunications Space Heating equipment, medical equipment, pumps, 11% emergency electric generators, etc.
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. Table 2-1 summarizes the research of IEA, the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, under the aegis of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, and the joint work of
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Base Forecasting Agency Year Year Method Total Coal Oil NG Total Coal Oil NG IEA 2002 2000 Sectoral 1860 1220 480 81 2438 1512 650 146 analysis APERC 2002 1999 Reference 2059 1090 469 99 2781 1414 710 196 scenario ERI, 2003 2000 Reference 2068 1365 524 108 2896 1788 795 193 NDRC scenario SOURCES: IEA, 2002; APEC, 2002; ERI, 2002. 35 30 Energy Research Institute APEC IEA Actual 25 100Mtce 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year FIGURE 2-20 Forecast of commercial energy consumption in China.
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While the National Development and Reform Commission's Energy Research Institute (ERI) makes overall energy consumption projections, the more detailed forecasts on supply and demand are carried out by agencies such as the China Coal Association, or the China Petro leum Sector.
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In 2003, the coal used to generate power or heat supply totaled 876 million tons (26.5 EJ) , or 53.5 percent of total consumption.
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2-22 Construction 0.3% Transportation 0.4% Residential Industry 4.0% 93.5% Commercial and others 0.8% Agriculture 1.1% FIGURE 2-23 Coal consumption by sector, 2005.
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Petroleum Petroleum consumption has increased rapidly, from 224 Mt (10 EJ)
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From page 55... ...
SOURCE: NBS, 2006b. 700 600 2-25 500 10000 400 300 200 100 0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 Production of automobiles Sales volume of automobiles FIGURE 2-26 Energy demand from automobiles.
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From page 56... ...
In 2006 construction also began on a larger (1 million tons annually) indirect coal liquefaction plant using domestically-developed technology; it is being built in 9.00 8.00 Energy Research Institute APEC 7.00 China Petroleum Sector IEA 6.00 Actual 100Mtce 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Year FIGURE 2-27 Forecast of petroleum consumption in China.
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From page 57... ...
, while 16.6 percent was used in the residential sector. Figure 2-28 predicts that natural gas consumption will continue to increase, and although the total consumption may increase four-fold by 2020, its relative contribution to total energy consumption will not be substantial.
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Figure 2-30 shows projections for electricity consumption through 2020. According to the NDRC, overall energy consumption per 10,000 RMB gross domestic product has been decreasing at a rate of 4 percent per year from 1991 to 2002, saving 70 Mtce (2.12 EJ)
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Transportation 7.5% 2-30 Agriculture 3.6% Industry Residential 70.8% 10.5% Commercial 6.2% Construction 1.5% FIGURE 2-31 Energy consumption by sector for 2005.
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From page 60... ...
2006. Energy Policy Act 2005, Section 1837: National Security Review of International Energy Requirements, Washington, D.C.: U.S.
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