Minerals, Critical Minerals, and the U.S. Economy (2008) / Chapter Skim
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Many existing and emerging technologies require nonfuel minerals that are not available in the United States. The global nature of the nonfuel mineral market has been made very evident in recent years as many emerging economies have become significant as both producers and consumers of various raw mineral products, in some cases competing for mineral feedstock directly with U.S.
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Informed planning to maintain and enhance domestic economic growth requires knowledge of potential restrictions in the supply of nonfuel minerals, as well as the strategies to mitigate the effects of those restrictions. This study was an outgrowth of discussions during the past several years with the Committee on Earth Resources of the National Research Council (NRC)
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; 2. Assess the trends in sources and production status of these critical minerals and mineral products worldwide (addressed in Chapters 3 and 4) ; 3. Examine the actual or potential constraints, including but not limited to geologic, technological, economic, and political issues, on the availability of these minerals and mineral products for domestic applications (addressed in Chapters 3 and 4)
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A specific mineral or mineral product can be placed on this figure after assessing the impact of restriction on the mineral's supply should it occur (vertical axis) and the likelihood of a supply restriction (horizontal axis)
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Chapter 4 demonstrates the application of the criticality matrix methodology to evaluate mineral criticality by examining 11 mineral candidates for criticality. The minerals and their applications cross many more industry sectors than the four examined in detail in Chapter 2 and serve to underscore the ubiquitous applications for minerals in everyday life.
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This combination of importance in use and availability or supply risk -- specifically, the potential that an important nonfuel mineral may be subject to supply restrictions -- defines a mineral's criticality for any specified time scale. IMPORTANCE OF MINERALS IN USE In 2006, the overall value added to the annual gross domestic product by industries that consume processed nonfuel minerals was estimated to be in excess of $2.1 trillion.
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In determining criticality of specific minerals later in the report, however, the committee took a broader view and included all industry applications, across all industry sectors. In addition to the relationship between mineral properties and mineral substitutability, examination of industrial sectors also lends itself to discussion of the concept that mineral criticality is dynamic: technology advancements, the popularity of given products, the discovery of health or environmental issues related to mineral use, or the rise of regulatory, tariff, or trade issues can all change the level of demand for one or another mineral through time.
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MINERAL AVAILABILITY OR RISK TO SUPPLY In evaluating the horizontal axis of the criticality matrix, five dimensions of primary, long-term nonfuel mineral availability were identified: geologic (whether the mineral resource exists) , technical (whether we extract and process it)
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The committee found that a balanced interpretation of all of these factors in terms of examination of supply risk is highly dependent on good domestic and global data on nonfuel minerals and mineral markets and comprehensive and reliable analysis of such data. CRITICAL MINERAL CANDIDATES: APPLICATION OF THE MATRIX The committee used the established parameters regarding a mineral's importance in use and availability (supply risk)
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judgment in implementing the matrix methodology. Recognizing that restriction in an individual mineral's supply will not have the same macroeconomic impact on the nation as a restriction in the supply of oil, the committee evaluated the criticality of each of these minerals on the basis of whether or not a particular industry sector, or the manufacture of one or more fairly ubiquitous consumer products, would be adversely affected should a restriction on the supply of that mineral occur.
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INFORMATION AND RESEARCH ON MINERALS Although a wide range of government and nongovernmental, international, and domestic organizations collects and disseminates information and databases relevant for decision making on nonfuel mineral policy issues, the committee found that decision makers in both the public and the private sectors desire continuous, unbiased, and thorough mineral information provided through a federally funded system of information collection and dissemination. Historically, nonfuel mineral data collection in the United States has been a recognized part of national policy since at least World War I, with a foundation in the importance of minerals to the national economy and national security and an emphasis on the importance of good statistical data collection to inform policy decisions.
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Because the effectiveness of a government agency or program is dependent on the agency's or program's autonomy, its level of resources, and its authority to enforce data collection, federal information gathering for nonfuel minerals as presently configured does not have sufficient authority and autonomy to appropriately carry out its data collection, dissemination, and analysis. In addition to the types of data already appropriately collected by the Minerals Information Team and the resource assessments and research on mineral exploration, production, consumption, and environmental impacts conducted by the USGS Mineral Resources Program under which the Minerals Information Team is administered, the committee is supportive of the incorporation of "critical minerals" as a specific part of analysis and data collection in the context of the complete mineral life cycle.
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Aside from nonfuel mineral data collection and analysis, the committee supports federal roles in facilitating and enabling technology transitions and monitoring of markets for new technological applications that employ minerals; the fact that many materials in new applications have come about through government involvement in research and development to achieve higher performance provides validation for this approach. Finally, the committee found that well-educated resource professionals are essential for fostering the innovation that is necessary to ensure resource availability at acceptable costs with minimal environmental damage.
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• The criticality matrix methodology is a useful conceptual frame work for evaluating a mineral's criticality in a balanced man ner in a variety of circumstances that will be useful for decision makers in the public and private sectors. A more nuanced and quantitative version of the matrix could be established and used as part of the federal program for collection, analysis, and dissemina tion of data on minerals.
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In particular, the committee concludes that USGS Minerals Information Team activities are less robust than they might be, in part because it does not have the status or resources to function as a "principal" statistical agency.
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RECOMMENDATIONS Recognizing the dynamic nature of mineral supply and demand and of criticality, and in light of the above conclusions, the committee makes the following recommendations: 1. The federal government should enhance the types of data and information it collects, disseminates, and analyzes on minerals and mineral products, especially as these data and information relate to minerals and mineral products that are or may become critical. In particular, more attention needs to be given to those areas of the mineral life cycle that are underrepresented in current activities including reserves and subeconomic resources; by-product and coproduct primary production; stocks and flows of secondary material available for recycling; in-use stocks; material flows; international trade, especially of metals and mineral products embodied in imported and exported products; and related information deemed appropriate and necessary.
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The federal government should consider whether a comparable mineral information administration would have status as a principal statistical agency and, if not, what other procedures should be investigated and implemented to give an agency with the mandate to collect mineral data and information greater autonomy and authority, as well as sufficient resources, to carry out its mandate. In the globalized mineral market, it is essential that the United States has a central authority through which to conduct outreach and exchange programs on minerals data with international counterparts and to collect and harmonize data from international sources.
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