Minerals, Critical Minerals, and the U.S. Economy (2008) / Chapter Skim
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6 Conclusions and Recommendations
6 Conclusions and Recommendations
Pages 205-222
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From page 205... ...
2. Assess the trends in the sources and production status of these critical minerals and mineral products worldwide.
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From page 206... ...
Throughout its examination of these issues, the committee found it essential to consider minerals, and critical minerals, in the context of a global mineral and material cycle -- from mineral ores at the mine to metallic and nonmetallic minerals in potentially recyclable materials and products. The committee established parameters regarding a mineral's importance in use and availability (supply risk)
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From page 207... ...
CONCLUSIONS Defining Criticality The committee concludes that all minerals and mineral products could be or could become critical to some degree, depending on their importance and availability -- in the sense that the chemical and physical properties they provide are essential to a specific product or use or more broadly, that specific minerals are an essential input for a national priority (for example, national defense) or for an industry, or may be important (or have the potential to become important)
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From page 208... ...
, mineral markets and in turn prices are influenced primarily by unexpected changes in mineral demand, such as the largely unanticipated increase in Chinese mineral demand over the last several years, and by unexpected shortfalls in production due to technical or other problems at existing mines and production facilities. In the short term, from the perspective of a mineral market as a whole, mineral users and producers are constrained by their existing production capacity, and therefore, unexpected changes in demand or supply are reflected largely in inventories held by producers, users, and commodity exchanges.
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From page 209... ...
The specific impact of a supply restriction will depend on circumstances: Is the mineral physically unavailable, or have prices increased? If prices rise, by how much?
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From page 210... ...
, although the impact on GDP of a supply dis ruption for any single mineral or mineral product will be small from the perspective of the national economy; -- Higher costs or reduced availability of products related to national defense. • Domestic purchasers of goods containing minerals and mineral products: there may be fewer purchases or more expensive purchases because goods have become more expensive (in either case, purchasers are worse off than previously)
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From page 211... ...
However, the committee notes that the largest impacts on national employment and GDP would come from supply restrictions on minerals and mineral products used in large quantities; of the minerals the committee examined using its criticality methodology, copper falls into this category, even though copper did not qualify as critical in the committee's eyes because its supply risk is low. Other minerals that the committee believes would be evaluated similarly include iron ore, aluminum, and aggregates.
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From page 212... ...
Since early in this decade, the mineral sector overall has experienced an extended boom (and relatively high mineral prices) due to a number of factors, including unexpectedly large increases in mineral demand in China and some other countries and unexpected interruptions in production at a number of mines due to technical problems and other factors.
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From page 213... ...
Finally, the lack of available old scrap for recycling or of the infrastructure required for recycling makes a market more prone to supply restriction than otherwise. An additional factor, import dependence, often is cited as an indicator of vulnerable supply and has carried the implication that imported supply may be less secure than domestic supply.
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From page 214... ...
An important investment is that in education and research, and the committee suggests that the long-term availability of minerals and mineral products also requires continued investment in mineral education and research. Education and research contribute to determining long-term mineral availability for both primary and secondary resources in all of their dimensions.
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From page 215... ...
Finally, it will be necessary to create economic incentives to make better use of the secondary resources now above the ground and in use, but often more costly to use at present than imported virgin material. Well-designed and competently directed research into improved recycling technologies may prove an effective tool in the reduction of our dependence on imports of critical minerals.
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From page 216... ...
The United States has two small PGM mines and a minor quantity of subeconomic PGM resources. Recycling occurs, primarily of spent automotive catalysts, but this amount is modest relative to annual use.
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From page 217... ...
In the short to medium term, the most likely factors to change are, first of all, demand, which could increase sharply if a new application is developed for a specific mineral and, second, the degree to which a mineral's production is concentrated in a small number of companies or countries, which in turn might be prone to opportunistic behavior. A more nuanced and quantitative version of the matrix could be established and used as part of the federal program for mineral data collection, analysis, and dissemination.
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From page 218... ...
A large number of government and nongovernmental, international, and domestic organizations collect and disseminate information and databases relevant for decision making on critical minerals and other mineral policy issues for public and private use. The consensus view of private, academic, and federal professionals is that the U.S.
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From page 219... ...
In particular, more attention than at present needs to be given to those areas of the mineral life cycle that are underrepresented in current information-gathering activities, including: reserves and subeconomic resources; by-product and coproduct primary production; stocks and flows of secondary material available for recycling; in-use stocks; material flows; international trade, especially of metals and mineral products embodied in imported and exported products; and related information deemed appropriate and necessary. Enhanced mineral analysis should include periodic assessment of mineral criticality over a wider range of minerals and in 219
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From page 220... ...
The federal government should consider whether a comparable mineral information administration would have status as a principal statistical agency and, if not, what other procedures should be investigated and implemented to give an agency with the mandate to collect mineral data and information greater autonomy and authority, as well as sufficient resources to carry out its mandate. In the globalized mineral market, it is essential that the United States has a central authority through which to conduct outreach and exchange programs on mineral data with international counterparts and to collect and harmonize data from international sources.
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From page 221... ...
innovation in the areas of critical minerals and materials and to enhance understanding of global mineral availability and use. Without renewed federal commitment to innovative mineral research and education, it is doubtful whether the recommended activities regarding mineral information will be sufficient for the nation to successfully anticipate and respond to possible short- to long-term restrictions in mineral markets.
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