America's Energy Future Technology and Transformation (2009) / Chapter Skim
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2 Key Findings
2 Key Findings
Pages 35-80
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From page 35... ...
By contrast, accelerated technology deployments could likely be achieved without substantial disruption, although some changes in the behavior of businesses and consumers would be needed. Moreover, many of these changes could involve new costs and higher prices for end users.
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From page 36... ...
Residential 1400 1500 1700 Commercial 1300 1700 1900 Industry 1000 1100 1000 Transportation 6 8 9 Electricity Supply (terawatt-hours) Coal 2000 2300 2800 Petroleum 48 52 56 Natural gas 680 610 500 Nuclear power 800 870 920 Renewables Conventional hydropower 260 300 300 Onshore wind 38 100 120 Offshore wind 0 0 0 Solar photovoltaic 0.08 0.52 1.0 Concentrating solar power 0.92 2.0 2.2 Geothermal 16 24 31 Biopower 12 78 83 Note: Estimates have been rounded.
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From page 37... ...
TABLE 2.1.3 Reference Scenario Estimates of Liquid Fuels Consumption and Supply 2007 2020 2030 Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day) Residential and commercial 1.1 1.1 1.1 Industrial 5.1 4.8 4.7 Transportation 14 16 17 Electric power 0.25 0.26 0.28 Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)
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From page 38... ...
Transforming this system to increase sustainability, promote economic prosperity, improve security, and reduce envi ronmental impacts as envisioned in Chapter 1 will require sustained national efforts to change the ways in which energy is produced, distributed, and used. The good news from the AEF Committee's assessment is that there are many practical options for obtaining energy savings, new supplies of energy, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through widespread and sustained deployments of exist ing and emerging energy-supply and end-use technologies.
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From page 39... ...
sectors could play a key role both in moderating the demand for energy and stimulating related R&D. 2In addition to the incentives listed in Footnote 1, other possible actions include expanding re newable-energy portfolio standards to promote the deployment of renewable energy and providing federal loan guarantees to promote construction of a handful of evolutionary nuclear plants.
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From page 40... ...
The efficiency supply curves shown later in this chapter demonstrate that many energy efficiency investments cost less than delivered electricity, natural gas, and liquid fuels; in some cases, those costs are substantially less. In the electricity sector, many efficiency invest ments even cost less than transmission and distribution costs, which are typically 3As noted in Chapter 1, the committee draws a sharp distinction between energy efficiency and energy conservation.
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From page 41... ...
. Improvements in the energy efficiency of residential and commercial buildings -- through the accelerated deployment of efficient technologies for space heating and cooling, water heating, lighting,4 computing, and other uses -- could save about 840 TWh per year by 2020 (Figure 2.1)
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From page 42... ...
and Chapter 4 in Part 2 of this report. In fact, the full deployment of cost-effective5 energy efficiency technologies in buildings alone could eliminate the need to build any new electricity-generating plants in the United States -- except to address regional supply imbalances, replace obsolete power-generation assets, or substitute more environmentally benign elec tricity sources -- assuming, of course, that these efficiency savings would not be used to support greater electricity use in other sectors.
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From page 43... ...
and Chapter 4 in Part 2 of this report. Opportunities for achieving substantial energy savings exist in the industrial and transportation sectors as well.
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From page 44... ...
The increased use of combined heat and power in industry is estimated to contribute a large fraction of these potential savings -- up to 2 quads per year in 2020. In the transportation sector, energy savings can be achieved by increasing the efficiencies with which liquid fuels (especially petroleum)
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From page 45... ...
As is noted in Chapter 1, the Obama administration recently announced a new national fuel efficiency policy that requires an average fuel economy standard of 35.5 mpg for new light-duty vehicles in 2016. 8CCE is defined as the levelized annual cost of an energy efficiency measure -- that is, the cost of a new technology, or the incremental cost for a more efficient technology compared with a less efficient one -- divided by the annual energy savings in kilowatt-hours or British thermal units over the lifetime of the measure.
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From page 46... ...
To estimate savings, an accelerated deployment of technologies as described in Part 2 of this report is assumed. Specifically, fuel efficiency improvements result from an optimistic illustrative scenario in which the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE)
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From page 47... ...
The CCEs for potential energy efficiency measures (numbered) are shown versus the ranges of potential energy savings for these measures.
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From page 48... ...
The CCEs for potential energy efficiency measures (numbered) are shown versus the ranges of potential energy savings for these measures.
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From page 49... ...
FINDING 3: OPTIONS FOR INCREASING ELECTRICITY SUPPLIES AND CHANGING THE SUPPLY MIX The United States has many promising options for obtaining new supplies of electricity and changing its supply mix during the next two to three decades, especially if carbon capture and storage and evolutionary nuclear energy technologies can be deployed at required scales. However, the deployment of these new supply technologies is very likely to result in higher consumer prices for electricity.
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From page 50... ...
One reason for the behavioral gap between economically optimal tech nology choices and actual choices is the low salience of energy efficiency for consumers. That is, consumers in this case do not reflect the neoclassical eco nomic model of the optimizing consumer.
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From page 51... ...
These estimates of new electricity supplies using different energy sources and technologies were derived independently and should not be added to obtain a total new supply estimate. As noted in Chapter 1, the AEF Committee has not conducted an integrated assessment of how these energy-supply technologies would compete in the marketplace or of how that competition and other external factors would affect deployment success.
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From page 52... ...
To estimate future supply, an accelerated deployment of technologies as described in Part 2 of this report is assumed. Potential new electricity supply does not account for future electric ity demand or competition among supply sources.
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From page 53... ...
The AEF Committee assumed an average capacity factor of 85 percent for coal plants with CCS. Potential new electricity supply does not account for future electricity demand, fuel availability or prices, or competition among supply sources.
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From page 54... ...
The AEF Committee assumed an average capacity factor of 90 percent for nuclear plants. Potential new electricity supply does not account for future electricity demand, fuel availability or prices, or competition among supply sources.
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From page 55... ...
Although the potential picture with these new supplies is promising, they will likely result in higher electricity prices.12 Estimates of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE; Box 2.3) for new baseload and intermittent electricity generation in 2020 are shown in Figure 2.10.
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From page 56... ...
The LCOE is computed by dividing the present value of the estimated full life-cycle costs of the generating facility by its estimated lifetime electricity production. The result is usually expressed in terms of cents per kilowatt-hour.
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From page 57... ...
On the other hand, fuel costs for nuclear plants are only a small part of electricity generation costs. Wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal power have no fuel charges and their deployment costs are well established, especially for onshore wind and solar.
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From page 58... ...
Solar CSP 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2007 Cents per Kilowatt-hour natural gas would be likely to rise, the year-to-year variations could also be large because of changes in the balance between demand and supply. Figure 2.10 indicates that the LCOE range for nuclear plants is compa rable with those for coal with CCS and certain renewable-energy sources, such as offshore wind and concentrating solar power.
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From page 59... ...
Estimated costs should be considered approximations. Note: CCS = carbon capture and storage; CSP = concentrating solar power; LCOE = levelized cost of electricity; NERC = North American Electric Reliability Corporation; NGCC = natural gas combined cycle; PV = photovoltaics.
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From page 60... ...
FINDING 4: MODERNIZING THE NATION'S POWER GRID Expansion and modernization of the nation's electrical transmission and distribution systems (i.e., the power grid) are urgently needed to enhance reliability and security, accommodate changes in load growth and electric ity demand, and enable the deployment of new energy efficiency and supply technologies, especially to accommodate future increases in intermittent wind and solar energy.
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From page 61... ...
• Ability to accommodate an expanded generation base, especially from intermittent wind and solar energy and from generation sources that are located at a distance from load-demand centers, which would help meet projected growth in future demand and deliver power to areas where it is needed. • Ability to provide real-time electricity price information that could motivate consumers to use electricity more efficiently, thereby moderat ing future growth in electricity demand.
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From page 62... ...
Reducing dependence on imported petroleum by substituting domestically produced liquid fuels would seem to be a good strategy, but the near-term options are limited. Just maintaining current rates of domestic petroleum production (about 5.1 million barrels per day in 2007)
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From page 63... ...
and the availability of 500 million dry tonnes per year of cellulosic biomass for fuel production are assumed after 2020. Potential liquid fuel supplies are estimated individually for each technology, and estimates do not account for future fuel demand, competition for biomass, or competition among supply sources.
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From page 64... ...
FIGURE 2.12 Estimates of the potential liquid fuel supply from conversion of coal to liquid fuels in 2020 and 2035 (relative to 2007) compared to total liquid fuel consump tion.
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From page 65... ...
FIGURE 2.13 Estimates of the potential liquid fuel supply from conversion of coal and biomass to liquid fuels in 2020 and 2035 (relative to 2007) compared to total liquid fuel consumption.
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From page 66... ...
By 2035, cellulosic ethanol and coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuels with CCS could replace 1.7–2.5 million barrels per day of gasoline equivalent -- about 12–18 percent of the current liquid fuel consumption in the transportation sector -- with near-zero life-cycle CO2 emissions. Coal-to-liquid fuels with CCS could replace 2–3 million barrels per day of gasoline equivalent (the 2 million barrels per day estimate assumes that some coal is diverted to produce coal-and biomass-to-liquid fuels)
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From page 67... ...
The widespread deployment of electric and/or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles between 2035 and 2050 could lead to further and possibly substantial long-term reductions in liquid fuel consumption in the transportation sector. The National Research Council (2008)
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From page 68... ...
the commercial viability of evolutionary nuclear plants in the United States. Achieving substantial greenhouse gas reductions in the transporta tion sector over the next two to three decades will also require a portfolio approach involving the widespread deployment of energy efficiency technolo gies, alternative liquid fuels with low life-cycle CO2 emissions, and light duty-vehicle electrification technologies.
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From page 69... ...
. sector will be possible only if existing coal plants and natural gas plants are retro fitted or repowered with CCS technologies or are retired.18 However, retrofitting these plants will require diversion of some of their energy input to capturing and 18Comparable actions at existing fossil-fuel plants in other countries will also be required to achieve substantial reductions in worldwide CO2 emissions.
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From page 70... ...
Consequently, achieving substantial reductions in CO2 emissions from the electricity sector is likely to require a portfolio approach involving the acceler ated deployment of multiple technologies: energy efficiency; renewables; coal and natural gas with CCS; and nuclear. However, the following two kinds of demon strations must be carried out during the next decade if we are to more fully under stand the range of available options: Assess the viability of CCS for sequestering CO2 from coal- and • natural-gas-fired electricity generation.
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From page 71... ...
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the liquid-fuels-based transportation sector will also require a portfolio approach because these emissions occur in millions of mostly nonstationary sources. As shown in Figure 2.16, the deployments of some alternative liquid fuels -- cellulosic ethanol, biomass-to-liquids with or without CCS, and biomass-and-coal-to-liquids with CCS -- are estimated to have zero or negative CO2-eq emissions: that is, their production and use do not contribute to atmospheric CO2 and might even result in net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.
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From page 72... ...
Note: BTL = biomass-to-liquid fuel; CBFT = coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuel, Fischer Tropsch; CBMTG = coal-and-biomass-to-liquid fuel, methanol-to-gasoline; CBTL = coal and-biomass-to-liquid fuel; CCS = carbon capture and storage; CFT = coal-to-liquid fuel, Fischer-Tropsch; CMTG = coal-to-liquid fuel, methanol-to-gasoline; CTL = coal-to-liquid fuel. Sources: Data from Chapter 5 in Part 2 of this report and from NAS-NAE-NRC (2009b)
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From page 73... ...
As is the case for liquid fuel supply, the widespread deploy ment of electric or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles between 2035 and 2050 holds some hope for more substantial long-term reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, again depending on how the electricity and hydrogen are generated. As noted previously, the National Research Council (2008)
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From page 74... ...
• Advanced technologies for producing alternative liquid fuels from renewable resources -- such as fuel production from CO2 feedstocks
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From page 75... ...
The deployed efficiency of current PV materials is greater than 10 percent, which is much higher than the field efficiency of plants for biomass. Although biomass is a compact form of chemical energy storage, its production requires a great deal of land and energy and it has to be harvested and processed to make electricity or liquid fuels, whereas the electricity from PV cells can be used directly.
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From page 76... ...
The assessments provided in the forgoing sections reflect the AEF Commit tee's judgments about the potential contribution of new energy technologies if the accelerated-deployment options identified in this report are actively pursued. However, a number of potential barriers could influence these options and, in turn, affect the actual scale and pace of the implementation of the technologies.
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From page 77... ...
They range, for example, from the limited availability of industrial capacity and skilled personnel for deploying the technologies to the availability of the biomass needed to expand the domestic production of liquid fuels. 19This problem is not restricted to the United States alone.
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From page 78... ...
The initial rates of deployment of reduced-carbon technologies (energy efficiency, renewable-energy sources, nuclear energy, and coal with CCS) can be accelerated by such guidelines, by a better alignment of incentives, and by some selected direct public investments.
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From page 79... ...
U.S. Building-Sector Energy Efficiency Potential.
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Key Terms
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